Today's post will be Cleveland-centric, so deal with it. I was born and raised in NE Ohio and a fan of the Indians before the 1987 SI jinx, so seeing a player return from the mid 90's glory years is awesome. The fact that it is Thome, my favorite player after Albert Belle, makes it even better. So needless to say, I'm happy that he is back, but the cynic in me has some questions. This trade couldn't have taken place any earlier, say prior to the trade deadline, since the Indians had a healthy Hafner at the time and no need for a left handed bat coming off the bench. But now that Hafner is hurt, the Indians need Thome, except that I'm afraid it's too late to make a difference for this season. The Tribe is 6.5 games back of a suddenly hot Tigers team and after what the Mariners did to the Indians this week, things aren't looking good. But I am not giving up just yet and perhaps Thome provides some spark to the team. I know it will to the fans. As happy as the fans are, including me, I cant help but feel bad for Thome. He could hardly refuse the trade to Cleveland as I'm sure he enjoyed his time there and technically the Indians are in contention. But he really would have preferred to go to Philadelphia and reunite with Charlie Manuel. This would have given Thome his best chance at a World Series ring this season. But Thome did what perhaps only he would do, accept the trade to the Indians and not look like a spoiled player trying to get his way. That isn't how he operates. Though it is doubtful anyone would have given him grief if he had. He certainly wouldn't have deserved it, but then again, we are talking about a fanbase in Cleveland that at times acts a bit irrational. Speaking for myself, I would have become a Phillies fan for the remainder of this season cheering for Thome to get his ring. All this brings me to the main thought, and what happens after the season? Will Thome retire? To my knowledge, he hasn't said publicly one way or the other. If he doesn't, this little trip down memory lane in Cleveland won't have the happy ending everyone wants. It is doubtful the Indians would bring him back for a full season with Hafner under contract. So that would leave Thome looking for another A.L. team to sign with, putting him in the position of leaving Cleveland once again. Will the fans be clamoring again next year for him to return if he is out of the race and the Indians are in it again? Doubtful, it just wouldn't have the same meaning a second time. So enjoy this last month of the season Tribe fans, cause most likely you'll be watching Thome hit bombs in Cleveland...but next year he'll be doing it in another teams uniform...again.
Picks not going so well as we're under .500. Today we are taking the smallest of 'dogs, over 10.5 in the Yankees-Orioles game. The Yankee offense is awesome and Burnett is pitching for the Bronx Bombers. That is a recipe for alot of runs. Remember to check me out daily on twitter, @vegasobie. Good luck, but never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Monday, August 22, 2011
No Chance
I'd love to hear from someone who has attended a NFL game in the last couple of years. Did you have a pleasant experience?? This thought comes after the numerous reported incidents at the Raiders-49ers game. In case you haven't heard, it was not a pretty scene. On top of the many fights and a guy getting beaten unconscious in the bathroom, there was also a shooting. Based on this, along with the other stories I've heard from nearly every city on the NFL map, there is no way I would ever take my family to a pro football game. I am not sure how much safer college games are, but the obnoxious behavior from fans of NFL teams is ridiculous. For me, it starts with the fact grown men are wearing jerseys of other grown men. Where does this obsession come from? All I hear when out in public or listening to talk radio is how spoiled these players are and how they are overpaid. But when Sunday rolls around, grown men are painting their faces and wearing another mans shirt. I realize there are probably many factors that contribute to the behavior at games, with alcohol being the biggest, but there is never any excuse to be rude and pick fights with people over a sports team. So count me out for NFL games, but I'd still love to hear some other firsthand experiences.
We are now a game under .500, 22-23 overall, but we had a good +160 win on Saturday with the Astros. Tonight there wasn't much I liked in the underdog world, but we're riding the Cubs against the Braves. Feel free to follow me with my daily picks on twitter, @vegasobie. Good luck, but remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
We are now a game under .500, 22-23 overall, but we had a good +160 win on Saturday with the Astros. Tonight there wasn't much I liked in the underdog world, but we're riding the Cubs against the Braves. Feel free to follow me with my daily picks on twitter, @vegasobie. Good luck, but remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Here We Go Again
Now it's time for the University of Miami to visit the chopping block. It looks as if "the U" is gonna face some serious sanctions, if not the death penalty, for its latest transgressions. If you are not aware of all the details, I highly suggest reading the article done by Charles Robinson with Yahoo! Sports. It is some amazing work in a day when sports journalism tends to be a joke, thanks to EsPN. Here is a link to the article, http://sports.yahoo.com/investigations/news?slug=cr-renegade_miami_booster_details_illicit_benefits_081611 and be sure to check out the detail provided for each individual implicated. Again, great work!
So now for the larger question, what can be done about all the problems in college football. Recently there has been a rash of incidents at schools across the country, including Oregon, USC, THEE Ohio State University, Auburn, Alabama and now most notably at Miami(FL). Reporters and talk shows are abuzz of what can be done to fix the ills and who is to blame. The athletes tend to get a pass, after all, they are just kids looking for some fun and a little extra in their pocket. Hard to argue this, especially when most of those kids are smart enough to see the administrators getting rich off their back. Still, if you are in an industry with rules, you should follow those rules, so some blame has to go to the players. Then there are the administrators at the schools, getting paid big dollars to run these big programs. On top of the taxpayer money they get in the form of salaries and bonuses(at state institutions only) they also get trips and perks courtesy of networks and bowl games. Read "Death to the BCS" by Dan Wetzel for more of the details on this element, it's mind blowing. The administrators, and this includes conference commissioners as well, make deals with the networks for millions and millions of dollars that the schools get, but the players see zero. On top of that, most schools do not even make money with their athletic programs, so then require more tax dollars from the state or higher student fees to pay for everything they need to keep up with the top schools. It is a system that has gotten way out of control in terms of competition off the field. Schools compete to have the biggest training facility, largest scoreboard, newest weight room...where does it stop? All in an effort to impress recruits and entice them to their institution. So are the networks to blame? They are the ones spending the millions of dollars to televise the games. But these are for profit businesses, so I doubt they are losing money on these deals. Which leads us to the true source of the problem, me. And you. We, as fans, are the ones that tune in every Saturday for non stop college football. We spend big bucks on jerseys and memorabilia to decorate our houses and fly flags outside our front door. We put stickers on our cars announcing our allegiance. Hell, we even watch Sun Belt and MAC football games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. So the ultimate blame lies at our feet. It's our obsession that allows for the millions of dollars to even be available. How on earth can we expect people to act honestly and like human beings when there is that much money on the line. Yet we are the ones up in arms over the behavior. We are the ones pushing for changes, debating if players should get paid or not and criticizing the NCAA for its lengthy rule book but in essence always reacting rather than being proactive. Not only is the rule book huge, but everything is getting bigger. The season gets longer in football, March Madness continues to grow in dollars and teams involved. And we say you're killing the what is good about the game...but we still watch. So ask yourself, do you really want change? Are you really outraged at the behavior? I've asked myself that lately, and I'm really not. In fact, I'm done with the Miami situation and could care less what punishment they get. I'm ready for the next school to "come on down". It's like a train wreck, you just have to watch. But if you are truly fed up, then stop watching. Turn the television off and read a book...I dare you. Bet you cant do it.
So we are slumping with the picks. Lost last night to fall to .500 at 21-21. Not too upset since we're always picking dogs and still slightly ahead on dollars, but definitely want a better winning percentage. If you want to follow along with my daily picks, I'm on twitter, handle is vegasobie. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
So now for the larger question, what can be done about all the problems in college football. Recently there has been a rash of incidents at schools across the country, including Oregon, USC, THEE Ohio State University, Auburn, Alabama and now most notably at Miami(FL). Reporters and talk shows are abuzz of what can be done to fix the ills and who is to blame. The athletes tend to get a pass, after all, they are just kids looking for some fun and a little extra in their pocket. Hard to argue this, especially when most of those kids are smart enough to see the administrators getting rich off their back. Still, if you are in an industry with rules, you should follow those rules, so some blame has to go to the players. Then there are the administrators at the schools, getting paid big dollars to run these big programs. On top of the taxpayer money they get in the form of salaries and bonuses(at state institutions only) they also get trips and perks courtesy of networks and bowl games. Read "Death to the BCS" by Dan Wetzel for more of the details on this element, it's mind blowing. The administrators, and this includes conference commissioners as well, make deals with the networks for millions and millions of dollars that the schools get, but the players see zero. On top of that, most schools do not even make money with their athletic programs, so then require more tax dollars from the state or higher student fees to pay for everything they need to keep up with the top schools. It is a system that has gotten way out of control in terms of competition off the field. Schools compete to have the biggest training facility, largest scoreboard, newest weight room...where does it stop? All in an effort to impress recruits and entice them to their institution. So are the networks to blame? They are the ones spending the millions of dollars to televise the games. But these are for profit businesses, so I doubt they are losing money on these deals. Which leads us to the true source of the problem, me. And you. We, as fans, are the ones that tune in every Saturday for non stop college football. We spend big bucks on jerseys and memorabilia to decorate our houses and fly flags outside our front door. We put stickers on our cars announcing our allegiance. Hell, we even watch Sun Belt and MAC football games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. So the ultimate blame lies at our feet. It's our obsession that allows for the millions of dollars to even be available. How on earth can we expect people to act honestly and like human beings when there is that much money on the line. Yet we are the ones up in arms over the behavior. We are the ones pushing for changes, debating if players should get paid or not and criticizing the NCAA for its lengthy rule book but in essence always reacting rather than being proactive. Not only is the rule book huge, but everything is getting bigger. The season gets longer in football, March Madness continues to grow in dollars and teams involved. And we say you're killing the what is good about the game...but we still watch. So ask yourself, do you really want change? Are you really outraged at the behavior? I've asked myself that lately, and I'm really not. In fact, I'm done with the Miami situation and could care less what punishment they get. I'm ready for the next school to "come on down". It's like a train wreck, you just have to watch. But if you are truly fed up, then stop watching. Turn the television off and read a book...I dare you. Bet you cant do it.
So we are slumping with the picks. Lost last night to fall to .500 at 21-21. Not too upset since we're always picking dogs and still slightly ahead on dollars, but definitely want a better winning percentage. If you want to follow along with my daily picks, I'm on twitter, handle is vegasobie. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Whose Ego Is Driving The Ship?
Everytime I think I have had enough of EsPN, I realize there are no other viable options for national sports coverage, so I tune back in. But after about 5 minutes I'm done...again. The latest hot button topic in athletics revolves around college conference realignment. We went through this last year and you would have thought armageddon was upon us. But at the final hour the Big 12 stayed a conference and everything was fine. EsPN didn't ring their hands and take either Colorado or Nebraska to task for their decisions. Then the Mickey Mouse of sports coverage aligned themselves with the University of Texas by investing 300 million dollars in the Longhorn Network. Now, first let me say how ridiculous it is that in a sport where human polls affect who can play for the national championship, no network with as much influence as EsPN should have a deal with any one school. The conflict of interest reeks and it is now affecting the current coverage of realignment. All I keep hearing is how big of a mistake Texas A&M is making and how they are letting their ego push their decision making. Really? Ego is leading A&M to potentially move to the SEC? Not the fact they will make alot more money and in turn no way assist their most hated rival make more money than any other school in their conference. Personally, I don't see what A&M is doing as ego driven, but pride driven. You can only be slapped in the back of the head by a sibling so often before you hit back. Texas, along with EsPN, has finally gone too far, especially considering the ego coming out of Austin. The AD at Texas has even said, "We're the Jonses" in reference to who everyone else has to keep up with. So let's take a step back up there in Bristol and excuse ourselves from opinion pieces on this story and just stick with facts. You are the catalyst for the latest realignment talk so please stop bashing those looking for a better deal. Your hypocrisy is more than obvious.
Not doing so well with the picks as we've lost 4 in a row to fall to 18-14. Back to winning today though as we're going with the Marlins in Colorado at +130. Kevin Millwood is on the mound for the Rockies, and while his line wasn't terrible in his start at Cincinnati, his pitches weren't great. Look for alot of runs scored but Florida to score more. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Not doing so well with the picks as we've lost 4 in a row to fall to 18-14. Back to winning today though as we're going with the Marlins in Colorado at +130. Kevin Millwood is on the mound for the Rockies, and while his line wasn't terrible in his start at Cincinnati, his pitches weren't great. Look for alot of runs scored but Florida to score more. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Friday, August 12, 2011
More Predictions
Last Friday I gave out a few predictions on win totals for teams in the SEC and the Big Ten. Today I'll go over teams from 3 other BCS conferences, the ACC, Big 12 and Pac 12. It's hard to get used to saying Pac 12, but only a matter of time till it's Pac 16 anyway. All of today's numbers will be from bodog.com unless otherwise stated. First up is Florida State, with a projected win total of 10 and plus money on the over. With only 8 "locks" for wins on the schedule, it's hard to take the 'Noles over this number. Obviously a huge game with Oklahoma in Tallahassee, but also games at Clemson and at Florida, along with Miami(FL) at home. Not one of these games is a guaranteed win and FSU would have to split the four just to get you a push. I hate paying the juice on prop bets, but would have to go under. Clemson comes in at 7 wins this year with the over a favorite. With 14 starters back and a very manageable schedule, getting over 7 shouldn't be a problem. I'm counting as wins games against Troy, Wofford, Boston College, Maryland, North Carolina, Wake Forest and N.C. State. That is 7 right there, with other winnable games hosting Auburn and at Georgia Tech. Gaining at least a push should be no issue. Virginia Tech is the projected winner of the ACC this season and somewhat of a sleeper pick for a BCS title. The Hokies total for wins is set at 10 with a -150 on the over. A 12 win regular season is very possible for Tech as their only "tough" games with Clemson and Miami(FL) come at home. East Carolina is the toughest non conference foe, so look for the Hokies to go over 10. Miami(FL) has a total at 8 wins, with equal payout on both over and under. This seems to be the perfect number, but I like over. Despite a new coach, this team has talent. The Canes have 4 very tough games, three of those on the road. They should win the other 8 on their schedule to get the push. I am even expecting them to beat Ohio State, which should get you over.
Turning our attention to the Big 12, let's start with a popular pick to win the BCS title, Oklahoma. Obviously this team is loaded, which is why the total is at ten with the over being the favorite. Now that the Big 12 only has 10 teams, everyone plays one another. This means OU has to play Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Texas, along with adding a game at Florida State from the non conference side. I am actually leaning toward under on this bet. The Sooners always seem to give one game away and I would be surprised if they run the table against those 4 tough opponents. Plus I like that plus money on under with 10 being a push. Now let's look at Texas A&M, a team getting alot of preseason buzz as a sleeper pick. Win total is only 8.5 but you are paying alot of juice on the over, currently -175. Despite annually being an under achiever, it's hard not to go over with the Aggies. Looking at the schedule, 8 wins seems like a lock, so then you would need just one win against Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Oklahoma or Texas. Two of those games are at home and one is a neutral field game. I wouldn't personally lay the money, but over does look good. Next up is Texas and their total is also 8.5 with the under playing the favorite. I expect a bounce back year for the Longhorns this season and would go over. I see wins against Rice, BYU, UCLA, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor. Now I only need 1 win from games with OU, OSU at home, at Missouri and at A&M. I like my chances and the plus money. Finally, Oklahoma State is another sleeper team from the Big 12 with nearly their entire offense back. They do lose their offensive coordinator to West Virginia, but this team will put up tons of points. Question comes on defense, and it's a big question. Currently sitting at 8 wins with bodog, I have seen other places putting them at 8.5. Since bodog is -220 on the over, 8.5 is the correct number and what I'll use here. The Cowboys toughest out of conference game is hosting Arizona, who they hammered in the bowl game last season. I like the over for OSU, but it won't be easy. This team will let fans down once again in big games, but still wins 9.
Finally today, we look at the new and improved Pac 12. First up is Oregon, coming off an appearance in the BCS title game. The marquee players are back for the Ducks, but that's about it. There has been lots of controversy in and around this program as well. Sitting at 9.5 with over the favorite, I would have to go over only because they get USC and Oregon State at home to end the year. Stanford was a rising program with Harbaugh at the helm, so this will be an interesting year for the Cardinal. A new coach but also a Heisman candidate at quarterback. The over is a heavy favorite for the total of 8.5. I'm thinking the heavy losses along the offensive line will get worked out by the time the schedule gets tough so would have to play over. As usual, USC is an interesting situation. Still dealing with the loss of scholarships, this team isn't as deep as usual, but has plenty of talent. With Barkley back at QB the offense should be more than adequate. Sitting with a total of 7.5, the over is heavily favored. I see wins over Minnesota, Utah, Syracuse, Arizona, at Colorado, Washington and UCLA. That gets them to 7, so can the Trojans get one more against either Arizona State, Cal, Notre Dame, Stanford or Oregon. Only one of those games is at home, but I'm betting yes and going over. And finally, let's end with a newcomer to the Pac 12, Utah. Courtesy of Leroy's, the win total is 7.5 with the over at +120. I am expecting Utah, with 7 starters back on offense, to surprise teams in the conference and get over this number. I realize it won't be easy, but teams will find it tough to play at Utah and they play a few winnable games on the road.
We are doing well with the twitter picks each day, now sitting at 20-15 overall. Today we are going with the Cubs as they play the Braves. I like Zambrano for some reason, and getting +130 is hard to pass up. The Cubs bats also seem to be waking up now that it's too late to make a run. That's fine by me, I don't care about them winning, just us! Remember to follow daily on twitter, handle vegasobie. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Turning our attention to the Big 12, let's start with a popular pick to win the BCS title, Oklahoma. Obviously this team is loaded, which is why the total is at ten with the over being the favorite. Now that the Big 12 only has 10 teams, everyone plays one another. This means OU has to play Texas A&M, Oklahoma State and Texas, along with adding a game at Florida State from the non conference side. I am actually leaning toward under on this bet. The Sooners always seem to give one game away and I would be surprised if they run the table against those 4 tough opponents. Plus I like that plus money on under with 10 being a push. Now let's look at Texas A&M, a team getting alot of preseason buzz as a sleeper pick. Win total is only 8.5 but you are paying alot of juice on the over, currently -175. Despite annually being an under achiever, it's hard not to go over with the Aggies. Looking at the schedule, 8 wins seems like a lock, so then you would need just one win against Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Oklahoma or Texas. Two of those games are at home and one is a neutral field game. I wouldn't personally lay the money, but over does look good. Next up is Texas and their total is also 8.5 with the under playing the favorite. I expect a bounce back year for the Longhorns this season and would go over. I see wins against Rice, BYU, UCLA, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor. Now I only need 1 win from games with OU, OSU at home, at Missouri and at A&M. I like my chances and the plus money. Finally, Oklahoma State is another sleeper team from the Big 12 with nearly their entire offense back. They do lose their offensive coordinator to West Virginia, but this team will put up tons of points. Question comes on defense, and it's a big question. Currently sitting at 8 wins with bodog, I have seen other places putting them at 8.5. Since bodog is -220 on the over, 8.5 is the correct number and what I'll use here. The Cowboys toughest out of conference game is hosting Arizona, who they hammered in the bowl game last season. I like the over for OSU, but it won't be easy. This team will let fans down once again in big games, but still wins 9.
Finally today, we look at the new and improved Pac 12. First up is Oregon, coming off an appearance in the BCS title game. The marquee players are back for the Ducks, but that's about it. There has been lots of controversy in and around this program as well. Sitting at 9.5 with over the favorite, I would have to go over only because they get USC and Oregon State at home to end the year. Stanford was a rising program with Harbaugh at the helm, so this will be an interesting year for the Cardinal. A new coach but also a Heisman candidate at quarterback. The over is a heavy favorite for the total of 8.5. I'm thinking the heavy losses along the offensive line will get worked out by the time the schedule gets tough so would have to play over. As usual, USC is an interesting situation. Still dealing with the loss of scholarships, this team isn't as deep as usual, but has plenty of talent. With Barkley back at QB the offense should be more than adequate. Sitting with a total of 7.5, the over is heavily favored. I see wins over Minnesota, Utah, Syracuse, Arizona, at Colorado, Washington and UCLA. That gets them to 7, so can the Trojans get one more against either Arizona State, Cal, Notre Dame, Stanford or Oregon. Only one of those games is at home, but I'm betting yes and going over. And finally, let's end with a newcomer to the Pac 12, Utah. Courtesy of Leroy's, the win total is 7.5 with the over at +120. I am expecting Utah, with 7 starters back on offense, to surprise teams in the conference and get over this number. I realize it won't be easy, but teams will find it tough to play at Utah and they play a few winnable games on the road.
We are doing well with the twitter picks each day, now sitting at 20-15 overall. Today we are going with the Cubs as they play the Braves. I like Zambrano for some reason, and getting +130 is hard to pass up. The Cubs bats also seem to be waking up now that it's too late to make a run. That's fine by me, I don't care about them winning, just us! Remember to follow daily on twitter, handle vegasobie. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Monday, August 8, 2011
Still Tiger's Caddy?
Steve Williams is still doing what he can to make Tiger Woods look good. After years and years of being his paid caddy to help Tiger on the course, Williams is now the caddy for Adam Scott. After Scott's win yesterday in Akron, Ohio, Williams claims it was the best win and best week of his career. Really, Stevie? Do you expect anyone to believe that winning all those majors with Tiger or making millions of dollars over the years at the numerous other tournaments weren't any better? Or that even the time you spent on Greg Norman's bag there wasn't a more fulfilling week? Of course there was. Everyone in the world understands what you are saying. My BFF broke up with me and I'm very hurt and angry, so I'll use the one chance I have to take a shot at him. Good for you. You got your shot in, I hope it felt good. But in reality, you once again helped Tiger, by making him look like the better man. And that is not easy to do. Now it looks like all those times you were rude and violent toward fans may have been as much about you as it was Tiger. People always assumed you were acting on your boss' orders, which you may have been, but you probably didn't mind in the least. Especially since the checks kept rolling in, including a sponsorship deal with Valvoline. Seriously...a caddy with his own sponsorship deal which, now that Tiger made you famous, looks like you are going to get to keep. So enjoy this moment, cause you may not get many more. And remember, every night you sleep in your paid off house or play with your race cars that your disposable income allows, it is all because of Tiger...the man that broke your heart and benefited from your actions one more time, even as you tried to hurt him.
The roll continued through the weekend, as we won everyday. The overall record is now up to 18-14. Be sure to follow along on twitter, the handle is vegasobie. Today there wasn't much to choose from, as the dogs I like aren't getting very good prices. The best price on dogs I liked was the Twins at +105 against the Red Sox. Baker has been good for the Twins and the Sox have to go on the road after the big series with the Yankees. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
The roll continued through the weekend, as we won everyday. The overall record is now up to 18-14. Be sure to follow along on twitter, the handle is vegasobie. Today there wasn't much to choose from, as the dogs I like aren't getting very good prices. The best price on dogs I liked was the Twins at +105 against the Red Sox. Baker has been good for the Twins and the Sox have to go on the road after the big series with the Yankees. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Staging Month
August is the month of anticipation. In baseball, it is all about getting games off the calendar so teams can gear up for the September run to the postseason. In football, both college and pro teams are battling the heat to prepare for the upcoming season. But rather than look at August as a lost month, I like to think of it as a staging month to prepare for all the money making opportunities the fall offers. Once September hits making money can be as simple as identifying the baseball teams that have mailed it in or just doing your homework on football games. One other way to make some money and have a bet that lasts longer than a few hours is with future betting. Besides betting on a team to win a division, league or championship, most sportsbooks offer wagers on predicting a teams regular season win total. Today I'll look at the top teams from the SEC and Big Ten with all total coming from the Hilton Sportsbook. I will not be taking into account any juice as that is much more likely to change than the actual total, just be sure to shop around for the best price.
Let's start with the top conference in college football, the SEC. Alabama is poised to return to the top and their win total is 10. I have them easily winning 9, with only toss ups at Florida, LSU at home and at Mississippi State. I believe they will win one of those three, so betting the over is the play. Also in the SEC West is LSU with a total set at 9.5. The Tigers have an early swing game, playing Oregon in Arlington, Texas the first week of the year. I think they win that game and go over the total. A top contender in the SEC East is South Carolina. Their total is 9 and I have them going under. They also seem to be a team that doesn't live up to expectations. Georgia is also in the East and have a total of 8.5 with Hilton. Even with a loss to Boise in week 1, which I am expecting, Georgia should get over this total. They don't draw either Alabama or LSU from the West but will meet one of them in the conference championship game as they win the East.
The Big Ten enters a new era this year with the addition of Nebraska and the introduction of division play. The projected top teams in the Leaders Division are THEE Ohio State University, Wisconsin and Penn State. Top teams in the Legends Division look to be Nebraska and Michigan State with Michigan also in this division. Predicting THEE Ohio State University could be the toughest call this year, given all the turmoil and change. Hilton didn't have a number on them, but bodog.com has them at 9 wins. I look for the Buckeyes to go under this number. Wisconsin is at 9.5 wins and they should easily get over that total with Russel Wilson at quarterback now. Hilton is putting Penn State at 7.5 and this is a tough call. Home games with Alabama and Nebraska don't help and I'm expecting a rough year in Happy Valley and the Nittany Lions to go under 7.5. Nebraska's first year in the Big Ten sees them opening at Wisconsin but getting THEE Ohio State University and Michigan State at home. Look for the Huskers to get over the 9.5 win total. Michigan State is only at 7.5, which on the surface sounds easy for a team that won 11 games last year and has their QB back this season. But the schedule isn't that easy for the Spartans. Road games with Notre Dame, THEE Ohio State University and Nebraska will be tough. Wisconsin at home won't be easy and MSU always seems to struggle with both Iowa and Northwestern. This doesn't even take into account the rivalry game with Michigan, which can always go either way. Michigan State has 5 "easy" wins on the schedule, so they would need to win 3 of their "tough" games. It won't come easy this season, but look for Michigan State to get over 7.5. That leaves the Wolverines of Michigan with a total set at 7. A new coach and new system are being implemented in Ann Arbor, but they do have alot of experience. Look for struggles after a 4-1 start and the Wolverines will limp home to under 7 wins.
We went on a 4 game win streak with our twitter picks and are now at 15-14 overall picking underdogs and very small favorites. Be sure to follow me at vegasobie on twitter to keep cashing in. As for today, I'm going with the Dodgers at +125 versus the Diamondbacks. Billingsley is solid and Collmenter seems to be faltering late in the year. I'll also be curious to see how the D'Backs respond at home now that the race in the division has tightened. Often you'll see the teams tighten up as well. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Let's start with the top conference in college football, the SEC. Alabama is poised to return to the top and their win total is 10. I have them easily winning 9, with only toss ups at Florida, LSU at home and at Mississippi State. I believe they will win one of those three, so betting the over is the play. Also in the SEC West is LSU with a total set at 9.5. The Tigers have an early swing game, playing Oregon in Arlington, Texas the first week of the year. I think they win that game and go over the total. A top contender in the SEC East is South Carolina. Their total is 9 and I have them going under. They also seem to be a team that doesn't live up to expectations. Georgia is also in the East and have a total of 8.5 with Hilton. Even with a loss to Boise in week 1, which I am expecting, Georgia should get over this total. They don't draw either Alabama or LSU from the West but will meet one of them in the conference championship game as they win the East.
The Big Ten enters a new era this year with the addition of Nebraska and the introduction of division play. The projected top teams in the Leaders Division are THEE Ohio State University, Wisconsin and Penn State. Top teams in the Legends Division look to be Nebraska and Michigan State with Michigan also in this division. Predicting THEE Ohio State University could be the toughest call this year, given all the turmoil and change. Hilton didn't have a number on them, but bodog.com has them at 9 wins. I look for the Buckeyes to go under this number. Wisconsin is at 9.5 wins and they should easily get over that total with Russel Wilson at quarterback now. Hilton is putting Penn State at 7.5 and this is a tough call. Home games with Alabama and Nebraska don't help and I'm expecting a rough year in Happy Valley and the Nittany Lions to go under 7.5. Nebraska's first year in the Big Ten sees them opening at Wisconsin but getting THEE Ohio State University and Michigan State at home. Look for the Huskers to get over the 9.5 win total. Michigan State is only at 7.5, which on the surface sounds easy for a team that won 11 games last year and has their QB back this season. But the schedule isn't that easy for the Spartans. Road games with Notre Dame, THEE Ohio State University and Nebraska will be tough. Wisconsin at home won't be easy and MSU always seems to struggle with both Iowa and Northwestern. This doesn't even take into account the rivalry game with Michigan, which can always go either way. Michigan State has 5 "easy" wins on the schedule, so they would need to win 3 of their "tough" games. It won't come easy this season, but look for Michigan State to get over 7.5. That leaves the Wolverines of Michigan with a total set at 7. A new coach and new system are being implemented in Ann Arbor, but they do have alot of experience. Look for struggles after a 4-1 start and the Wolverines will limp home to under 7 wins.
We went on a 4 game win streak with our twitter picks and are now at 15-14 overall picking underdogs and very small favorites. Be sure to follow me at vegasobie on twitter to keep cashing in. As for today, I'm going with the Dodgers at +125 versus the Diamondbacks. Billingsley is solid and Collmenter seems to be faltering late in the year. I'll also be curious to see how the D'Backs respond at home now that the race in the division has tightened. Often you'll see the teams tighten up as well. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.
Monday, August 1, 2011
We have reached that time of year when both baseball and football fight for headlines and coverage. Football will win out, as usual, which is fine. It is currently the most popular sport in our country. Though I prefer baseball, I can live with the media devoting more minutes to the NFL, after all, they have bills to pay too. But please stop telling me that the reason for the NFL's popularity is it's parody. Quit feeding into the idea that baseball is only two teams, Yankees and Red Sox, and all the other teams are just trying to field a team. There is no more parody in football than in baseball. In fact, over the last ten years, the leagues are nearly identical when it comes to teams playing for championships. I went back and looked at the conference championship games and the league championship series for the past decade and was amazed at how similar both sports are. In the last ten years, 21 different teams have played in a conference championship game in either the AFC or NFC. That compares to 22 teams that have played for a pennant in the AL or NL. As for teams playing in the Super Bowl and World Series, identical with 14 different franchises in both sports. When it comes to being crowned world champion, baseball has had 9 different World Series winners the past decade and the Super Bowl has only seen 7 different teams hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Even if you try to claim the Red Sox and Yankees dominate more than any two teams in football, you would be wrong. Over the last ten years, the Sox and Yanks have combined to appear 9 times in the league championship series. But in the AFC, the Patriots and Steelers have appeared 10 times in their conference title game. It is time for the media to find other reasons for the NFL's success. There are plenty of them I'm sure. Just stop bashing baseball while you do it, parody is just as rampant on the diamond as it is on the gridiron.
A couple of strange losses recently puts us a game below .500, but still ahead on dollars as we keep picking based on value. Today I'm loving the Cubs with Zambrano on the hill at +130. Anytime you pick the Cubs it is a risky proposition, but the Pirates seem to be fading and that's a good price on a good pitcher. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
A couple of strange losses recently puts us a game below .500, but still ahead on dollars as we keep picking based on value. Today I'm loving the Cubs with Zambrano on the hill at +130. Anytime you pick the Cubs it is a risky proposition, but the Pirates seem to be fading and that's a good price on a good pitcher. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
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