The first week of picking every game, both side and total, saw me hit 53%. That isn't a profit making percentage, but picking that many games it is pretty good. Of course, and I'll keep emphasizing this, one should never actually bet that many games, and I don't. This is simply being done as an exercise. The problem with that 53% last week was that I only went 2-3 with the ones I bet and that is not good. But we tried again this week and the results were much more like I anticipated. Overall I went 41-51 which is 44.5% accuracy. The good news is that my actual bets went 4-1, and that is a money making weekend. And 6-4 for the two weeks is respectable as well. This week I have taken the time to breakdown my picks by conference to see where I was strongest or weakest. I'll make an effort to do this again for week 5 of college football, as long as my real job allows. Here is the breakdown by conference, first numbers are the side and the second numbers are the totals. Also, if a game was between teams from the same conference, it only counted one time.
ACC: 4-3, 3-4
Big 12: 2-3, 2-3
Big East: 4-2, 1-5
Big Ten: 4-4, 3-5
C-USA: 4-4, 1-7
Independents: 1-1, 0-2
MAC: 8-1, 5-4
MWC: 1-3, 1-3
PAC 12: 2-3, 1-4
SEC: 5-2, 2-5
Sun Belt: 2-3, 3-2
WAC: 2-3, 2-3
Wouldn't be too hard to figure out I graduated from a MAC school, would it? Anyway, back to the present and Monday Night Football is on tonight, with the Redskins visiting the Cowboys. I haven't looked at the number recently, but I am on Washington and got it at +6.5. I think the Redskins defense is good enough to bother Romo and possibly not allow him to finish the game. That would give the edge to Washington as they could pull off the SU win. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Monday, September 26, 2011
Friday, September 23, 2011
Trying Again
Last week I actually made a pick on every college game between 2 FBS teams, both the side and total. At just over 53% it wasn't a total train wreck but it also wouldn't have been profitable. Now, I'm obviously not actually betting all these games because that would be insane. The games I actually bet went 2-3, so that's not good. So here we are, running the experiment for a second straight week. After giving you all my choices, I'll let you know which ones I'm actually betting.
Colorado +16.5 at THEE Ohio State University, 46.5 I'll be taking the Buffaloes in this game. The number just seems a bit too high for OSU to cover. They will be starting their freshman quarterback for the first time this season, but I don't think it will matter. The offense out of Columbus is very lackluster and Colorado should score just enough to cover the spread while keeping the total UNDER.
Tulane +10 at Duke, 56 This is certainly not a marquee matchup, but interesting to me since I won taking both of these teams last week. Duke's offense hasn't been as good as advertised this season but the defense has been pretty good. Tulane hammered UAB last week on the road and should be able to keep this game close. I am also looking at the game going UNDER.
Syracuse -2 vs. Toledo, 52.5 Toledo seems to be everyone's pick as they covered in Columbus and were somewhat respectable against Boise State. But OSU isn't a very good team and in both games Toledo made mistakes that repeatedly cost them points. I don't see that changing and expect Syracuse to win this game by 3 to 6 points with the total staying UNDER.
East Carolina -14 vs. UAB, 62.5 Last week UAB lost at home to Tulane by 39 points as a 12.5 point favorite. Now they have to play on the road against a team that had a bye last week. ECU is 2-0 ATS this year but both times were big underdogs. Now as a big favorite it will be interesting to see if the Pirates continue to exceed expectations. I expect they will and the total to go OVER.
UTEP +29.5 at South Florida, 48.5 Two good defenses here and one good offense. I am sure the spread will tell you which team has the good offense. That being said, the Miners defense should limit the Bulls just enough to keep the game within 4 touchdowns and keep the total UNDER.
Western Michigan +13.5 at Illinois, 52.5 This game smells like a Ron Zook classic. Coming off a big win over Arizona State, I think Illinois will have their hands full with the Broncos offense. Plenty of points on the scoreboard in this game with WMU possibly winning straight up. But I'll take those points and the OVER.
Rutgers -4 vs Ohio, 50.5 The Scarlet Knights have played pretty well in their first two games, going 2-0 ATS. The Bobcats have been very good this season and are coming off a 44-7 pasting of Marshall. But if history tells us anything, MAC teams are not usually as good as we think. I'll take Rutgers with an extra week to rest and prepare with the total staying UNDER.
Eastern Michigan +28.5 at Penn State, 46 EMU played at Michigan last week and only allowed the Wolverines 31 points. Michigan's offense is light years ahead of PSU, so I don't see how the Nittany Lions cover this spread. The Eagles will control the ball just enough to keep within the number and see the total go UNDER.
Kansas State +12.5 at Miami(FL), 47.5 Combined last week both teams gave up 6 points. While Miami faced slightly tougher competition in OSU, this game should be low scoring. The atmosphere for a day game in Miami will be vastly different than the night game last week. A small emotional drop from the Hurricanes will allow the Wildcats to stay close with the total staying UNDER.
SMU -23.5 at Memphis, 54.5 Memphis is in contention to be the worst team in FBS as they battle for that title with Akron. Until they show me different, I will be picking against them. The total should go OVER.
Temple +8.5 at Maryland, 52.5 Both teams lost tight, emotionally charged games last week. But one thing that tends to carry over from week to week is defense, and the Owls have an edge there. They should be able to limit the Terrapins enough to keep it within one touchdown and keep the game UNDER.
Michigan State -21.5 vs. Central Michigan, 49.5 CMU got blown out by their rival Western Michigan last week while MSU was getting beat soundly by Notre Dame. That should help the Spartans focus for this game and run wild over the Chippewas. Michigan State will cover and see the game go OVER.
Georgia -10 at Mississippi, 53.5 I can't possibly bring myself to back a team that got blown out by Vanderbilt. I recognize that teams can be flat or be looking ahead, but that was still a conference game. Georgia basically had a bye last week, playing Coastal Carolina. I expect the Bulldogs to score early and often as the game gets OVER.
Bowling Green +3.5 at Miami(OH), 53 I am jinxing myself here, but I've picked every game for the Falcons correctly this year. Both teams are coming off of close losses last week, but in this series, no matter the players or the coaches, the visiting team seems to have an edge. I'll take the points but expect BGSU to win straight up while putting up enough points for the game to get OVER.
Ball State +4 vs. Army, 50.5 This line feels a bit off to me. Perhaps it is a bit high because Army is coming off the win over Northwestern, but these teams are pretty even and Ball State is at home. I'll take the points in what should be a low scoring, tight game. I'll also take the UNDER.
Virginia Tech -20.5 at Marshall, 47 This is a tough spot for the Hokies. This is game 4 of an underwhelming non-conference schedule with Clemson on deck. The game is also in Huntington, which isn't usually easy for visitors. But I'm backing Frank Beamer here as I expect him to have his team ready to fire on all cylinders after back to back lackluster performances. I also like the game OVER.
Alabama -11 vs. Arkansas, 50.5 As the debate rages on about which defense is better, Bama or LSU, the Crimson Tide get a shot to send a message early on Saturday. With injuries hitting the Razorbacks hard, Alabama should control this game from start to finish and cover easily with the game staying UNDER.
Washington -1 vs. Cal, 58.5 Cal tends to play much better at home, but this game is in Seattle. The Huskies scored plenty of points against Nebraska last week, so that shouldn't be a problem. This is a conference game though, so I expect things to be a bit tighter and more physical with Washington getting the cover and the game going UNDER.
LSU -5.5 at West Virginia, 48 The Mountaineers will be fired up for this game, especially now that it is the prime time game for the week. But LSU is used to these situations and will be able to handle the pressure much better than either WVU or their first year head coach. LSU will handle this game with relative ease and keep the total UNDER.
San Diego State +10 at Michigan, 57 Normally, I go against west coast teams playing in the noon EST time slot, but this will be the Aztecs second time this year doing it, so they should be able to handle it a bit better. They also have the type of balanced offense that should be able to keep the game close. Both teams should get points to push the game OVER.
Georgia Tech -6.5 vs North Carolina, 58 The Yellow Jackets offense is rolling right now, having scored 63, 49 and 66 points in their three games. While this UNC defense will be the best they have seen so far this year, they should still score enough to cover and push the game OVER.
Florida -19.5 at Kentucky, 44 Florida has been good but not great this season. Last week against Tennessee they should have won much bigger, but defensive pass interference penalties aided the Volunteers. Kentucky will not be able to put that type of pressure on the Gators defense and I expect Florida to hammer the Wildcats. The game will also go OVER.
Notre Dame -7 at Pittsburgh, 55 While I'm not a fan of the Irish, they seem to be improving slightly from week to week. Pitt doesn't get much of a home field advantage and Notre Dame always has plenty of fans for their road games in the east. If Iowa could get points against the Panthers, I see no reason the Irish won't. I like Notre Dame this week along with the OVER.
Clemson -2.5 vs. Florida State, 48 Both teams come off of emotional games from the previous week, but Clemson is riding high with a win in that game. Florida State not only lost the game, but may have lost their quarterback for this game. I expect a tight, low scoring game with Clemson winning by about a touchdown. The total will also be UNDER.
San Jose State -10.5 vs New Mexico State, 46.5 I'm sure this game is high on everyones radar for Saturday. Neither team is very good, but I think the Aggies are worse, especially going to San Jose. Yes, I know NMSU won at Minnesota this year, but they also lost at home to UTEP only scoring 10 points. They won't score many more than that on the Spartans as SJSU covers with the game going UNDER.
Fresno State -3 at Idaho, 52 The Vandals burned me last week, but I still cant back a team that lost at home to Bowling Green. Obviously, playing in Moscow isn't a huge advantage, so I'll take the Bulldogs along with the UNDER.
Buffalo +9 vs. UCONN, 46 No dynamic offenses here, so please give me 9 points. This game should be low scoring and it won't surprise me if Buffalo wins outright. I also like the game UNDER.
Oregon State -4.5 vs UCLA, 52 The Bruins seem to have no direction and Neuheisel is firmly on the hot seat. I don't like taking a winless team as a favorite, but that won't stop me. I also think both teams score enough to push the total OVER.
Texas Tech -15.5 vs Nevada, 61 I said it last week and will continue to say it, the Wolfpack are nowhere near the same team without Colin Kapernick. The Red Raiders should roll in this game since it is only Kansas on deck for next week. The game also should go OVER.
Vanderbilt +15.5 at South Carolina, 49 The Commodores are 3-0 this season and playing good football. With new coach Tony Franklin there seems to be some excitement around the program. Look for them to sneak up on the Gamecocks and keep the game close as well as UNDER.
Louisiana Tech +19.5 at Mississippi State, 59 MSU has had plenty of time to stew and regroup after being handled by the LSU defense. They will score quite a few but I expect Tech to score just enough to keep it within the spread. This game will go OVER.
Baylor -20 vs. Rice, 66.5 Baylor's offense has been explosive this season, led by Robert Griffin III. They will score plenty of points to cover but Rice will not help out so the game stays UNDER.
Virginia -3 vs Southern Miss, 52 I am a big fan of Mike London at Virginia, and even though the Cavaliers let me down last week, I am on them again this week. Southern Miss has not played well this year against any serious competition. Both teams score but Virginia scores enough to cover with the total going OVER.
Texas A&M -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State, 68 This should be a very exciting game with two high scoring offenses. The edge for me in this game is home field and a slightly better defense with the Aggies. Those two things combine to allow A&M to cover but the total will still go OVER.
Wyoming +21 vs. Nebraska, 57.5 Not a good spot for the Cornhuskers. After playing a game against PAC-12 Washington last week they take to the road for a game in Laramie. Never an easy place to play, Nebraska also has a game at Wisconsin on deck for next week. On top of that, Nebraska is 0-3 ATS this season and I expect that stat to go to 0-4. The Cowboys score enough points to cover as the game goes OVER.
Oklahoma -19.5 vs. Missouri, 57 In what could be a let down spot for the Sooners after the game at Tallahassee, they welcome the team that gave them their first loss last season into Norman. Oklahoma will be looking to send a message in their first Big 12 game of the year and rolls the Tigers. The game will also go OVER.
Utah State -10.5 vs. Colorado State, 56 CSU is coming off a game against their in state rival Colorado and now has to travel to Utah State. The Aggies have been very good this year and will look to make an impression on homecoming weekend. I'm laying the points and taking the OVER.
Tulsa +28 at Boise State, 63 This pick is being made based on the information that Tulsa's starting quarterback will be playing. With Kinne in the lineup I think Tulsa can score enough points to keep it within 4 touchdowns but the game will still go OVER.
Oregon -14.5 at Arizona, 65.5 The Ducks are on a mission after losing that opening game, and will not take it easy on anyone. The Wildcats are in trouble and Stoops may be lucky to make it through the year. Oregon scores enough to cover and not to get the game over, so go UNDER.
USC +2.5 at Arizona State, 53.5 The Trojans finally looked like they are starting to click with the easy win over Syracuse last week. Even though they are playing a lot of sophomores and freshmen in a big road game, I think they win this game. There won't be a ton of points scored so I like the UNDER.
Auburn -31.5 vs Florida Atlantic, 58 The Owls didn't score against Michigan State and didn't even get 50 yards of offense. Now they go against Auburn coming off its first loss in 18 games. I'm glad I don't play for the Florida Atlantic offense. Auburn rolls with the pressure of the win streak gone and the game gets OVER.
Iowa -17 vs Louisiana Monroe, 50 The Hawkeyes will be riding some positive momentum after the comeback win over Pitt last week. They tune up for Big Ten play with an easy over the Warhawks as the game also goes OVER.
Troy -12 vs. Middle Tennessee State, 64 Troy has owned MTSU in recent years and that shouldn't end in this game. I like the Trojans and the OVER.
Indiana -6 at North Texas. I realize the Hoosiers lost to Ball State, but only laying 6 against North Texas??? Perhaps I'm not very smart, but I think Indiana wins easily and the game goes OVER.
Louisiana Lafayette +17 vs Florida International, 50.5 The Golden Panthers are riding high after back to back wins over Louisville and Central Florida, so I expect a small letdown as they return to Sun Belt action this week. They still win the game, but don't get the cover as the game goes OVER.
So there you have it, my choices on every FBS game this weekend. As for what I'm betting, here ya go. I like Michigan State -21.5, Western Michigan +13.5, LSU -5.5, Buffalo +9 and Baylor -20. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Colorado +16.5 at THEE Ohio State University, 46.5 I'll be taking the Buffaloes in this game. The number just seems a bit too high for OSU to cover. They will be starting their freshman quarterback for the first time this season, but I don't think it will matter. The offense out of Columbus is very lackluster and Colorado should score just enough to cover the spread while keeping the total UNDER.
Tulane +10 at Duke, 56 This is certainly not a marquee matchup, but interesting to me since I won taking both of these teams last week. Duke's offense hasn't been as good as advertised this season but the defense has been pretty good. Tulane hammered UAB last week on the road and should be able to keep this game close. I am also looking at the game going UNDER.
Syracuse -2 vs. Toledo, 52.5 Toledo seems to be everyone's pick as they covered in Columbus and were somewhat respectable against Boise State. But OSU isn't a very good team and in both games Toledo made mistakes that repeatedly cost them points. I don't see that changing and expect Syracuse to win this game by 3 to 6 points with the total staying UNDER.
East Carolina -14 vs. UAB, 62.5 Last week UAB lost at home to Tulane by 39 points as a 12.5 point favorite. Now they have to play on the road against a team that had a bye last week. ECU is 2-0 ATS this year but both times were big underdogs. Now as a big favorite it will be interesting to see if the Pirates continue to exceed expectations. I expect they will and the total to go OVER.
UTEP +29.5 at South Florida, 48.5 Two good defenses here and one good offense. I am sure the spread will tell you which team has the good offense. That being said, the Miners defense should limit the Bulls just enough to keep the game within 4 touchdowns and keep the total UNDER.
Western Michigan +13.5 at Illinois, 52.5 This game smells like a Ron Zook classic. Coming off a big win over Arizona State, I think Illinois will have their hands full with the Broncos offense. Plenty of points on the scoreboard in this game with WMU possibly winning straight up. But I'll take those points and the OVER.
Rutgers -4 vs Ohio, 50.5 The Scarlet Knights have played pretty well in their first two games, going 2-0 ATS. The Bobcats have been very good this season and are coming off a 44-7 pasting of Marshall. But if history tells us anything, MAC teams are not usually as good as we think. I'll take Rutgers with an extra week to rest and prepare with the total staying UNDER.
Eastern Michigan +28.5 at Penn State, 46 EMU played at Michigan last week and only allowed the Wolverines 31 points. Michigan's offense is light years ahead of PSU, so I don't see how the Nittany Lions cover this spread. The Eagles will control the ball just enough to keep within the number and see the total go UNDER.
Kansas State +12.5 at Miami(FL), 47.5 Combined last week both teams gave up 6 points. While Miami faced slightly tougher competition in OSU, this game should be low scoring. The atmosphere for a day game in Miami will be vastly different than the night game last week. A small emotional drop from the Hurricanes will allow the Wildcats to stay close with the total staying UNDER.
SMU -23.5 at Memphis, 54.5 Memphis is in contention to be the worst team in FBS as they battle for that title with Akron. Until they show me different, I will be picking against them. The total should go OVER.
Temple +8.5 at Maryland, 52.5 Both teams lost tight, emotionally charged games last week. But one thing that tends to carry over from week to week is defense, and the Owls have an edge there. They should be able to limit the Terrapins enough to keep it within one touchdown and keep the game UNDER.
Michigan State -21.5 vs. Central Michigan, 49.5 CMU got blown out by their rival Western Michigan last week while MSU was getting beat soundly by Notre Dame. That should help the Spartans focus for this game and run wild over the Chippewas. Michigan State will cover and see the game go OVER.
Georgia -10 at Mississippi, 53.5 I can't possibly bring myself to back a team that got blown out by Vanderbilt. I recognize that teams can be flat or be looking ahead, but that was still a conference game. Georgia basically had a bye last week, playing Coastal Carolina. I expect the Bulldogs to score early and often as the game gets OVER.
Bowling Green +3.5 at Miami(OH), 53 I am jinxing myself here, but I've picked every game for the Falcons correctly this year. Both teams are coming off of close losses last week, but in this series, no matter the players or the coaches, the visiting team seems to have an edge. I'll take the points but expect BGSU to win straight up while putting up enough points for the game to get OVER.
Ball State +4 vs. Army, 50.5 This line feels a bit off to me. Perhaps it is a bit high because Army is coming off the win over Northwestern, but these teams are pretty even and Ball State is at home. I'll take the points in what should be a low scoring, tight game. I'll also take the UNDER.
Virginia Tech -20.5 at Marshall, 47 This is a tough spot for the Hokies. This is game 4 of an underwhelming non-conference schedule with Clemson on deck. The game is also in Huntington, which isn't usually easy for visitors. But I'm backing Frank Beamer here as I expect him to have his team ready to fire on all cylinders after back to back lackluster performances. I also like the game OVER.
Alabama -11 vs. Arkansas, 50.5 As the debate rages on about which defense is better, Bama or LSU, the Crimson Tide get a shot to send a message early on Saturday. With injuries hitting the Razorbacks hard, Alabama should control this game from start to finish and cover easily with the game staying UNDER.
Washington -1 vs. Cal, 58.5 Cal tends to play much better at home, but this game is in Seattle. The Huskies scored plenty of points against Nebraska last week, so that shouldn't be a problem. This is a conference game though, so I expect things to be a bit tighter and more physical with Washington getting the cover and the game going UNDER.
LSU -5.5 at West Virginia, 48 The Mountaineers will be fired up for this game, especially now that it is the prime time game for the week. But LSU is used to these situations and will be able to handle the pressure much better than either WVU or their first year head coach. LSU will handle this game with relative ease and keep the total UNDER.
San Diego State +10 at Michigan, 57 Normally, I go against west coast teams playing in the noon EST time slot, but this will be the Aztecs second time this year doing it, so they should be able to handle it a bit better. They also have the type of balanced offense that should be able to keep the game close. Both teams should get points to push the game OVER.
Georgia Tech -6.5 vs North Carolina, 58 The Yellow Jackets offense is rolling right now, having scored 63, 49 and 66 points in their three games. While this UNC defense will be the best they have seen so far this year, they should still score enough to cover and push the game OVER.
Florida -19.5 at Kentucky, 44 Florida has been good but not great this season. Last week against Tennessee they should have won much bigger, but defensive pass interference penalties aided the Volunteers. Kentucky will not be able to put that type of pressure on the Gators defense and I expect Florida to hammer the Wildcats. The game will also go OVER.
Notre Dame -7 at Pittsburgh, 55 While I'm not a fan of the Irish, they seem to be improving slightly from week to week. Pitt doesn't get much of a home field advantage and Notre Dame always has plenty of fans for their road games in the east. If Iowa could get points against the Panthers, I see no reason the Irish won't. I like Notre Dame this week along with the OVER.
Clemson -2.5 vs. Florida State, 48 Both teams come off of emotional games from the previous week, but Clemson is riding high with a win in that game. Florida State not only lost the game, but may have lost their quarterback for this game. I expect a tight, low scoring game with Clemson winning by about a touchdown. The total will also be UNDER.
San Jose State -10.5 vs New Mexico State, 46.5 I'm sure this game is high on everyones radar for Saturday. Neither team is very good, but I think the Aggies are worse, especially going to San Jose. Yes, I know NMSU won at Minnesota this year, but they also lost at home to UTEP only scoring 10 points. They won't score many more than that on the Spartans as SJSU covers with the game going UNDER.
Fresno State -3 at Idaho, 52 The Vandals burned me last week, but I still cant back a team that lost at home to Bowling Green. Obviously, playing in Moscow isn't a huge advantage, so I'll take the Bulldogs along with the UNDER.
Buffalo +9 vs. UCONN, 46 No dynamic offenses here, so please give me 9 points. This game should be low scoring and it won't surprise me if Buffalo wins outright. I also like the game UNDER.
Oregon State -4.5 vs UCLA, 52 The Bruins seem to have no direction and Neuheisel is firmly on the hot seat. I don't like taking a winless team as a favorite, but that won't stop me. I also think both teams score enough to push the total OVER.
Texas Tech -15.5 vs Nevada, 61 I said it last week and will continue to say it, the Wolfpack are nowhere near the same team without Colin Kapernick. The Red Raiders should roll in this game since it is only Kansas on deck for next week. The game also should go OVER.
Vanderbilt +15.5 at South Carolina, 49 The Commodores are 3-0 this season and playing good football. With new coach Tony Franklin there seems to be some excitement around the program. Look for them to sneak up on the Gamecocks and keep the game close as well as UNDER.
Louisiana Tech +19.5 at Mississippi State, 59 MSU has had plenty of time to stew and regroup after being handled by the LSU defense. They will score quite a few but I expect Tech to score just enough to keep it within the spread. This game will go OVER.
Baylor -20 vs. Rice, 66.5 Baylor's offense has been explosive this season, led by Robert Griffin III. They will score plenty of points to cover but Rice will not help out so the game stays UNDER.
Virginia -3 vs Southern Miss, 52 I am a big fan of Mike London at Virginia, and even though the Cavaliers let me down last week, I am on them again this week. Southern Miss has not played well this year against any serious competition. Both teams score but Virginia scores enough to cover with the total going OVER.
Texas A&M -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State, 68 This should be a very exciting game with two high scoring offenses. The edge for me in this game is home field and a slightly better defense with the Aggies. Those two things combine to allow A&M to cover but the total will still go OVER.
Wyoming +21 vs. Nebraska, 57.5 Not a good spot for the Cornhuskers. After playing a game against PAC-12 Washington last week they take to the road for a game in Laramie. Never an easy place to play, Nebraska also has a game at Wisconsin on deck for next week. On top of that, Nebraska is 0-3 ATS this season and I expect that stat to go to 0-4. The Cowboys score enough points to cover as the game goes OVER.
Oklahoma -19.5 vs. Missouri, 57 In what could be a let down spot for the Sooners after the game at Tallahassee, they welcome the team that gave them their first loss last season into Norman. Oklahoma will be looking to send a message in their first Big 12 game of the year and rolls the Tigers. The game will also go OVER.
Utah State -10.5 vs. Colorado State, 56 CSU is coming off a game against their in state rival Colorado and now has to travel to Utah State. The Aggies have been very good this year and will look to make an impression on homecoming weekend. I'm laying the points and taking the OVER.
Tulsa +28 at Boise State, 63 This pick is being made based on the information that Tulsa's starting quarterback will be playing. With Kinne in the lineup I think Tulsa can score enough points to keep it within 4 touchdowns but the game will still go OVER.
Oregon -14.5 at Arizona, 65.5 The Ducks are on a mission after losing that opening game, and will not take it easy on anyone. The Wildcats are in trouble and Stoops may be lucky to make it through the year. Oregon scores enough to cover and not to get the game over, so go UNDER.
USC +2.5 at Arizona State, 53.5 The Trojans finally looked like they are starting to click with the easy win over Syracuse last week. Even though they are playing a lot of sophomores and freshmen in a big road game, I think they win this game. There won't be a ton of points scored so I like the UNDER.
Auburn -31.5 vs Florida Atlantic, 58 The Owls didn't score against Michigan State and didn't even get 50 yards of offense. Now they go against Auburn coming off its first loss in 18 games. I'm glad I don't play for the Florida Atlantic offense. Auburn rolls with the pressure of the win streak gone and the game gets OVER.
Iowa -17 vs Louisiana Monroe, 50 The Hawkeyes will be riding some positive momentum after the comeback win over Pitt last week. They tune up for Big Ten play with an easy over the Warhawks as the game also goes OVER.
Troy -12 vs. Middle Tennessee State, 64 Troy has owned MTSU in recent years and that shouldn't end in this game. I like the Trojans and the OVER.
Indiana -6 at North Texas. I realize the Hoosiers lost to Ball State, but only laying 6 against North Texas??? Perhaps I'm not very smart, but I think Indiana wins easily and the game goes OVER.
Louisiana Lafayette +17 vs Florida International, 50.5 The Golden Panthers are riding high after back to back wins over Louisville and Central Florida, so I expect a small letdown as they return to Sun Belt action this week. They still win the game, but don't get the cover as the game goes OVER.
So there you have it, my choices on every FBS game this weekend. As for what I'm betting, here ya go. I like Michigan State -21.5, Western Michigan +13.5, LSU -5.5, Buffalo +9 and Baylor -20. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Not A Total Failure
For those that read last Friday's post, you will remember that I picked both the side and total in every college football game between two FBS teams. While the results weren't great, they also weren't terrible. We ended the weekend with an overall record of 50-42-2. That's a winning percentage of just over 53%. That may not sound as bad to inexperienced bettors as experienced bettors, but never forget you have to pay the juice. Thanks to that juice, to turn a profit you need to be over 54%. All in all, I'm comfortable with the results and will do it again this weekend, so stay tuned. Breaking the numbers down a bit, we were 21-25-1 picking the sides and 29-17-1 picking totals. This certainly tells us where improvement is needed. The really bad news though is the game I liked to bet myself went 2-3. That must improve since I don't have the bankroll to bet every game. Anyone out there looking for investment opportunities??
So we already reviewed last week, let's get to a pick for tonights Monday night game. The Rams are playing in New York against the Giants. Neither team looked very good last Sunday and both are beat up. For me this game is more about motivation and I feel the Rams with their coach will have more. He will be pulling out all the stops on defense to impress his former employer. As of now, St. Louis is getting 7 points and that should be more than enough. Remember to follow on twitter, vegasobie, and never bet what you cant afford to lose!
So we already reviewed last week, let's get to a pick for tonights Monday night game. The Rams are playing in New York against the Giants. Neither team looked very good last Sunday and both are beat up. For me this game is more about motivation and I feel the Rams with their coach will have more. He will be pulling out all the stops on defense to impress his former employer. As of now, St. Louis is getting 7 points and that should be more than enough. Remember to follow on twitter, vegasobie, and never bet what you cant afford to lose!
Friday, September 16, 2011
An Experiment Doomed for Failure
Week 3 of college football is upon us, and the season is already producing some intriguing storylines. This week has the potential to shape the race for the title as #1 Oklahoma travels to Tallahassee and play #5 Florida State. There are plenty of other great games as well, with THEE Ohio State University playing Miami(FL), Auburn going into Clemson and Michigan State playing Notre Dame. What a wonderful Saturday we shall have. I've been picking pretty well this season, going a combined 14-7 last week with college and pro games. Knowing how hard it is to pick winners and my own history, that rate cant continue. But I thought now may be the best time to pick every game between FBS teams this weekend...all 47 of them. Now, obviously I realize this is a horrible idea and I would never actually bet this many games. I will be sure to let you know which of these picks I will actually be betting. Either way, this could be fun...no one can turn away from a train wreck. Oh...and for good measure I'll pick the over/under too.
Iowa State +4 at UCONN, 44.5 I'm not a huge fan of the Cyclones, but in this matchup I actually believe they are better coached and have the better quarterback, so give me the points along with the OVER.
Boise State -20 at Toledo, 59.5 The Glass Bowl can be a tough place for teams to go into and get the win, but this Boise team is awesome. I also believe the performance of the Rockets at THEE Ohio State University last Saturday will get the Broncos full attention. I will be betting the OVER in this game as I expect Toledo to find the end zone a few times but Boise wins comfortably producing alot of points.
West Virginia +1 at Maryland, 57.5 Making this pick with the belief the Mountaineers team from the second half last week will show up. Also, even though Maryland won and covered against Miami(FL), they were not very impressive versus that depleted roster. I will be betting the OVER as both teams will score.
Auburn +3.5 at Clemson, 60.5 This was a great game last season in Auburn where War Eagle pulled out the win in overtime. I'm not sold on this years Auburn squad, but until they get beat, I'll take points with them everytime. I also lean toward the OVER since both teams seem to enjoy allowing other teams to score.
Pittsburgh +3 at Iowa, 50.5 I am not impressed by either of these teams, but the whole world seems to be on Iowa, and that scares me. There is very solid reasoning for that choice, however that is a red flag for me, so I'll take the points along with the UNDER.
Cincinnati -34 vs. Akron, 56.5 This is the first home team I am taking, but I'm picking UC more based on the opponent than the Bearcats themselves. The Zips are fighting it out to be the worst team in FBS this season with Memphis, UNLV and Florida Atlantic. UC can name their score, and I'm thinking they will coming off the loss to Tennessee. I'll also take the OVER thinking UC gets it on their own.
Wyoming +9.5 at Bowling Green, 54.5 This was tough for me, being a BGSU alum, but it is in my head that everytime BG starts to show positive signs and is a favorite, they fail miserably. I also think this is the best defense the Falcons have seen so far this season so will also take the UNDER.
Michigan -28.5 vs Eastern Michigan, 61 The Wolverines are riding high with a new coach and great comeback win over Notre Dame. They will score plenty of points here to cover but I'll also take the UNDER as the Eagles will have trouble finishing in the end zone.
Penn State -7 at Temple, 46 Temple is hosting Penn State but I find it hard to believe the crowd will be totally in their corner. This should be a very good game, but in the end I look for the Nittany Lions to get the cover while the game stays UNDER.
Central Michigan +7.5 at Western Michigan, 54 This should be a highly competitive game, so I'll take the touchdown plus. CMU has also won 5 straight in this series, so any psychological edge goes their way. Both teams will put points up though, so I like the OVER.
Vanderbilt +2.5 vs Mississippi, 47 Vandy is off to a 2-0 start and actually has a pretty good recent history with the Rebels. As the home team and getting points, I love them here along with the game staying UNDER.
Duke +7 at Boston College, 47.5 This looks like an awful game on paper with both teams 0-2, and I'm expecting it to be awful on the field too. The Eagles offense is awful right now and Duke's is not much better. I expect a low scoring game to stay UNDER 47.5 so I'll also take the 7 points.
Kansas +14.5 at Georgia Tech, 62 Kansas pulled the upset on Tech last year at home, so this could be a revenge game for the Yellow Jackets. While they should get the win, I think it stays within two touchdowns but it will also go OVER the total.
Colorado State +7 vs Colorado, 50.5 This game is a neutral field game being played in Denver. Colorado State has played well this year and I think in this rivalry game 7 is just too many this season. The game will be UNDER as well.
Northern Illinois +16.5 vs Wisconsin, 64.5 Another neutral field game, with this one being played in Chicago. The Huskies new coach this year comes from Wisconsin, where he was the defensive coordinator the last 3 years. If anyone is familiar with the Badgers personnel, it will be him. UNI tries to pound the ball with the run game and control the clock, so I like the Huskies and the UNDER.
Miami(OH) +5 at Minnesota, 46.5 Miami is actually a very good MAC team and is quite familiar with the system Minnesota now runs with former MAC coach Kill at the helm. The Gophers should be motivated after losing at home to New Mexico State last week along with dealing with their coach's health issues this week. I still think the Redhawks win this game and the total stays UNDER.
Tennessee +10 at Florida, 51 The Volunteers looked very good against Cincinnati last week while this will be a big step up in competition for Florida. The quarterback play for Tennessee will be enough to keep them in this game while both teams score and the game goes OVER.
Michigan State +5 at Notre Dame, 51.5 Until Notre Dame actually plays a good game I won't believe they are a good team. I will happily take the 5 points with the Spartans and I look for their defense to do very well as the total stays UNDER.
Virginia +10.5 vs North Carolina, 48 UVA has won 10 of 13 in this series while UNC hasn't won back to back since the early 80's. On top of that, the Cavaliers are in the second year with Coach London and get the Heels at home. This should be a low scoring game and 10.5 is way too much. I like Virginia enough that I will bet them myself. I also like the UNDER.
Texas -3.5 at UCLA, 44 Neither offense here is dynamic, but there seems to be more excitement in Austin as they turn to their young talent. A late score will give the Longhorns the cover as the game stays UNDER.
Nebraska -17 vs. Washington, 55 I keep hearing the play here is Washington, but I think the Huskers look to send a message in their last big game before Big Ten play. They score early and often as they cover and take the total OVER.
Texas Tech -20.5 at New Mexico, 54.5 New Mexico is awful and this game shouldn't be close. In fact, the Red Raiders may push the total OVER themselves.
Northwestern -5 at Army, 54.5 The Wildcats look very good this year and should win this game by a touchdown but the total will stay UNDER.
San Jose State +6 vs Nevada, 54 This is a situation where until Nevada proves something without Kapernick at quarterback, I'm not buying. That also leads me to lean toward the UNDER.
Tulane +13 at UAB, 54 Two middle of the pack C-USA teams here but I think they are more evenly matched up than the oddsmakers. I like taking the points here along with the UNDER.
Navy +16.5 at South Carolina, 57.5 I think it's gonna be tough for the Gamecocks to shut down Navy coming off the emotional and physical game with Georgia. Great athletes for South Carolina on the defensive front but Navy will test their discipline. I like the points and the game to go OVER.
Washington State +5.5 at San Diego State, 57 The Cougars are putting up some points, and even though this is a step up in competition and on the road, I think they keep scoring and win the game. Both teams will score so I also like the OVER.
Kentucky -4.5 vs. Louisville, 41Combined these teams have played 8 halves of football and the only time either looked decent was Kentucky in the second half last week. I think that carries over and the Wildcats find a way to cover in an ugly game that creeps OVER.
Houston -6.5 at Louisiana Tech, 70.5 This may be the final chance to get the Cougars before everyone jumps on board with Case Keenum being back. Tech won't score much though so I like it UNDER.
Ohio -4 vs. Marshall, 49 These teams are pretty evenly matched up, but the Bobcats at home are pretty tough to beat. Defense will rule the day however as it stays UNDER.
Texas A&M -35.5 vs. Idaho, 60 This is a huge number to cover, but any team that loses at home to Bowling Green will not get my money. It should also fly OVER.
Ball State -4.5 vs Buffalo, 52.5 I really like the Cardinals here, especially at home. So much so that I'm playing them myself. I also think it stays UNDER.
Arizona State +2 at Illinois, 57 The offenses will do well in this game, but I don't believe in Ron Zook. I was also impressed by the Sun Devils on the road at Wisconsin last year, so I'll take them here along with OVER.
Kansas State -17.5 vs Kent State, 46 I expect the Wildcats offense to show much more this game than they have to this point in the season. Also, Kent State is pretty awful and has a first year head coach. I also like the OVER.
USC -15 vs Syracuse, 49 This is a game where I'm trusting my gut, and it is saying the USC offense explodes. The Trojans should win comfortably and the game will go OVER.
Florida State +3 vs Oklahoma, 54.5 I really hope this game is as exciting as I think it will be. In the end, with lots of points scored, I think home field keeps the 'Noles in the game. Give me Florida State and the OVER.
New Mexico State -3 vs. UTEP, 47 A couple pretty bad teams here, but I feel the win at Minnesota gives the Aggies some momentum. I'll lay the points and I like it to stay UNDER.
Miami(FL) -2.5 vs. THEE Ohio State University, 46 In a game where defense should dominate, Miami scores just enough to cover. It will also stay UNDER.
Utah +3.5 at BYU, 46.5 This is possibly the most underrated rivalry in college football. These schools hate one another and the game is always close. With that being the case, I'll take the points along with the UNDER.
Oklahoma State -13.5 at Tulsa, 68 The Cowboys offense is awesome. They will not slow down at Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane will put up a few points as well. OSU gets the cover, but I am betting the OVER myself.
Hawaii -17.5 at UNLV, 59.5 This line was 20.5 here in Vegas during the week and I have no idea why it is coming down. I cannot see a way the Rebels keep it close and will be betting Hawaii myself. It should also easily go OVER.
Stanford -8.5 at Arizona, 55.5 Arizona was quite unimpressive at Oklahoma State and it looks to me like Stanford is very motivated this year. With Luck coming back, the entire teams seems intent on doing what it needs to for him to win the Heisman. I also think the game gets OVER.
TCU -29.5 vs Louisiana-Monroe, 52.5 The Horned Frogs finally get a home game and they will roll in this one. In fact, I think they get the OVER on their own.
Arkansas State +24 at Virginia Tech, 53 Tech wins this game comfortably, but 24 just feels like too much to me. I think ASU gets a few points on the board which will also push the game OVER.
Central Florida -5.5 at Florida International, 50.5 UCF is a very good team with a great defense. They won't allow T.Y. Hilton to go crazy like Louisville did last week. It also stays UNDER.
North Texas +47 at Alabama, 55 This may be the best time for the Mean Green to catch Bama, between games with Penn State and Arkansas. Bama wins easy but not by more than 47 as the game stays UNDER.
Arkansas -23 vs Troy, 63 The Razorbacks are trying to send a message with every game that they were more than Ryan Mallet last season. They score a ton in this one and win easily pushing the total OVER.
So there it is, for what it's worth. Come back Monday when I'll assess the damage. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Iowa State +4 at UCONN, 44.5 I'm not a huge fan of the Cyclones, but in this matchup I actually believe they are better coached and have the better quarterback, so give me the points along with the OVER.
Boise State -20 at Toledo, 59.5 The Glass Bowl can be a tough place for teams to go into and get the win, but this Boise team is awesome. I also believe the performance of the Rockets at THEE Ohio State University last Saturday will get the Broncos full attention. I will be betting the OVER in this game as I expect Toledo to find the end zone a few times but Boise wins comfortably producing alot of points.
West Virginia +1 at Maryland, 57.5 Making this pick with the belief the Mountaineers team from the second half last week will show up. Also, even though Maryland won and covered against Miami(FL), they were not very impressive versus that depleted roster. I will be betting the OVER as both teams will score.
Auburn +3.5 at Clemson, 60.5 This was a great game last season in Auburn where War Eagle pulled out the win in overtime. I'm not sold on this years Auburn squad, but until they get beat, I'll take points with them everytime. I also lean toward the OVER since both teams seem to enjoy allowing other teams to score.
Pittsburgh +3 at Iowa, 50.5 I am not impressed by either of these teams, but the whole world seems to be on Iowa, and that scares me. There is very solid reasoning for that choice, however that is a red flag for me, so I'll take the points along with the UNDER.
Cincinnati -34 vs. Akron, 56.5 This is the first home team I am taking, but I'm picking UC more based on the opponent than the Bearcats themselves. The Zips are fighting it out to be the worst team in FBS this season with Memphis, UNLV and Florida Atlantic. UC can name their score, and I'm thinking they will coming off the loss to Tennessee. I'll also take the OVER thinking UC gets it on their own.
Wyoming +9.5 at Bowling Green, 54.5 This was tough for me, being a BGSU alum, but it is in my head that everytime BG starts to show positive signs and is a favorite, they fail miserably. I also think this is the best defense the Falcons have seen so far this season so will also take the UNDER.
Michigan -28.5 vs Eastern Michigan, 61 The Wolverines are riding high with a new coach and great comeback win over Notre Dame. They will score plenty of points here to cover but I'll also take the UNDER as the Eagles will have trouble finishing in the end zone.
Penn State -7 at Temple, 46 Temple is hosting Penn State but I find it hard to believe the crowd will be totally in their corner. This should be a very good game, but in the end I look for the Nittany Lions to get the cover while the game stays UNDER.
Central Michigan +7.5 at Western Michigan, 54 This should be a highly competitive game, so I'll take the touchdown plus. CMU has also won 5 straight in this series, so any psychological edge goes their way. Both teams will put points up though, so I like the OVER.
Vanderbilt +2.5 vs Mississippi, 47 Vandy is off to a 2-0 start and actually has a pretty good recent history with the Rebels. As the home team and getting points, I love them here along with the game staying UNDER.
Duke +7 at Boston College, 47.5 This looks like an awful game on paper with both teams 0-2, and I'm expecting it to be awful on the field too. The Eagles offense is awful right now and Duke's is not much better. I expect a low scoring game to stay UNDER 47.5 so I'll also take the 7 points.
Kansas +14.5 at Georgia Tech, 62 Kansas pulled the upset on Tech last year at home, so this could be a revenge game for the Yellow Jackets. While they should get the win, I think it stays within two touchdowns but it will also go OVER the total.
Colorado State +7 vs Colorado, 50.5 This game is a neutral field game being played in Denver. Colorado State has played well this year and I think in this rivalry game 7 is just too many this season. The game will be UNDER as well.
Northern Illinois +16.5 vs Wisconsin, 64.5 Another neutral field game, with this one being played in Chicago. The Huskies new coach this year comes from Wisconsin, where he was the defensive coordinator the last 3 years. If anyone is familiar with the Badgers personnel, it will be him. UNI tries to pound the ball with the run game and control the clock, so I like the Huskies and the UNDER.
Miami(OH) +5 at Minnesota, 46.5 Miami is actually a very good MAC team and is quite familiar with the system Minnesota now runs with former MAC coach Kill at the helm. The Gophers should be motivated after losing at home to New Mexico State last week along with dealing with their coach's health issues this week. I still think the Redhawks win this game and the total stays UNDER.
Tennessee +10 at Florida, 51 The Volunteers looked very good against Cincinnati last week while this will be a big step up in competition for Florida. The quarterback play for Tennessee will be enough to keep them in this game while both teams score and the game goes OVER.
Michigan State +5 at Notre Dame, 51.5 Until Notre Dame actually plays a good game I won't believe they are a good team. I will happily take the 5 points with the Spartans and I look for their defense to do very well as the total stays UNDER.
Virginia +10.5 vs North Carolina, 48 UVA has won 10 of 13 in this series while UNC hasn't won back to back since the early 80's. On top of that, the Cavaliers are in the second year with Coach London and get the Heels at home. This should be a low scoring game and 10.5 is way too much. I like Virginia enough that I will bet them myself. I also like the UNDER.
Texas -3.5 at UCLA, 44 Neither offense here is dynamic, but there seems to be more excitement in Austin as they turn to their young talent. A late score will give the Longhorns the cover as the game stays UNDER.
Nebraska -17 vs. Washington, 55 I keep hearing the play here is Washington, but I think the Huskers look to send a message in their last big game before Big Ten play. They score early and often as they cover and take the total OVER.
Texas Tech -20.5 at New Mexico, 54.5 New Mexico is awful and this game shouldn't be close. In fact, the Red Raiders may push the total OVER themselves.
Northwestern -5 at Army, 54.5 The Wildcats look very good this year and should win this game by a touchdown but the total will stay UNDER.
San Jose State +6 vs Nevada, 54 This is a situation where until Nevada proves something without Kapernick at quarterback, I'm not buying. That also leads me to lean toward the UNDER.
Tulane +13 at UAB, 54 Two middle of the pack C-USA teams here but I think they are more evenly matched up than the oddsmakers. I like taking the points here along with the UNDER.
Navy +16.5 at South Carolina, 57.5 I think it's gonna be tough for the Gamecocks to shut down Navy coming off the emotional and physical game with Georgia. Great athletes for South Carolina on the defensive front but Navy will test their discipline. I like the points and the game to go OVER.
Washington State +5.5 at San Diego State, 57 The Cougars are putting up some points, and even though this is a step up in competition and on the road, I think they keep scoring and win the game. Both teams will score so I also like the OVER.
Kentucky -4.5 vs. Louisville, 41Combined these teams have played 8 halves of football and the only time either looked decent was Kentucky in the second half last week. I think that carries over and the Wildcats find a way to cover in an ugly game that creeps OVER.
Houston -6.5 at Louisiana Tech, 70.5 This may be the final chance to get the Cougars before everyone jumps on board with Case Keenum being back. Tech won't score much though so I like it UNDER.
Ohio -4 vs. Marshall, 49 These teams are pretty evenly matched up, but the Bobcats at home are pretty tough to beat. Defense will rule the day however as it stays UNDER.
Texas A&M -35.5 vs. Idaho, 60 This is a huge number to cover, but any team that loses at home to Bowling Green will not get my money. It should also fly OVER.
Ball State -4.5 vs Buffalo, 52.5 I really like the Cardinals here, especially at home. So much so that I'm playing them myself. I also think it stays UNDER.
Arizona State +2 at Illinois, 57 The offenses will do well in this game, but I don't believe in Ron Zook. I was also impressed by the Sun Devils on the road at Wisconsin last year, so I'll take them here along with OVER.
Kansas State -17.5 vs Kent State, 46 I expect the Wildcats offense to show much more this game than they have to this point in the season. Also, Kent State is pretty awful and has a first year head coach. I also like the OVER.
USC -15 vs Syracuse, 49 This is a game where I'm trusting my gut, and it is saying the USC offense explodes. The Trojans should win comfortably and the game will go OVER.
Florida State +3 vs Oklahoma, 54.5 I really hope this game is as exciting as I think it will be. In the end, with lots of points scored, I think home field keeps the 'Noles in the game. Give me Florida State and the OVER.
New Mexico State -3 vs. UTEP, 47 A couple pretty bad teams here, but I feel the win at Minnesota gives the Aggies some momentum. I'll lay the points and I like it to stay UNDER.
Miami(FL) -2.5 vs. THEE Ohio State University, 46 In a game where defense should dominate, Miami scores just enough to cover. It will also stay UNDER.
Utah +3.5 at BYU, 46.5 This is possibly the most underrated rivalry in college football. These schools hate one another and the game is always close. With that being the case, I'll take the points along with the UNDER.
Oklahoma State -13.5 at Tulsa, 68 The Cowboys offense is awesome. They will not slow down at Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane will put up a few points as well. OSU gets the cover, but I am betting the OVER myself.
Hawaii -17.5 at UNLV, 59.5 This line was 20.5 here in Vegas during the week and I have no idea why it is coming down. I cannot see a way the Rebels keep it close and will be betting Hawaii myself. It should also easily go OVER.
Stanford -8.5 at Arizona, 55.5 Arizona was quite unimpressive at Oklahoma State and it looks to me like Stanford is very motivated this year. With Luck coming back, the entire teams seems intent on doing what it needs to for him to win the Heisman. I also think the game gets OVER.
TCU -29.5 vs Louisiana-Monroe, 52.5 The Horned Frogs finally get a home game and they will roll in this one. In fact, I think they get the OVER on their own.
Arkansas State +24 at Virginia Tech, 53 Tech wins this game comfortably, but 24 just feels like too much to me. I think ASU gets a few points on the board which will also push the game OVER.
Central Florida -5.5 at Florida International, 50.5 UCF is a very good team with a great defense. They won't allow T.Y. Hilton to go crazy like Louisville did last week. It also stays UNDER.
North Texas +47 at Alabama, 55 This may be the best time for the Mean Green to catch Bama, between games with Penn State and Arkansas. Bama wins easy but not by more than 47 as the game stays UNDER.
Arkansas -23 vs Troy, 63 The Razorbacks are trying to send a message with every game that they were more than Ryan Mallet last season. They score a ton in this one and win easily pushing the total OVER.
So there it is, for what it's worth. Come back Monday when I'll assess the damage. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Cheering For Anarchy
Now that college football season is back, it's time for me to embrace my love/hate relationship with the game. There isn't a much more exciting time than checking the channel guide on a Saturday morning to find all the games I want to follow for the day. I've evolved over the years to being a fan of the game more than a fan of any one team. Sure, I love to see my alma mater, Bowling Green State University, do well. I was also paid by Michigan State University for a time so it's hard not to enjoy when they do well. But overall, I just enjoy the drama and big time atmospheres that college football can produce. Of course, not all that drama is positive. My biggest problem with college football is that roughly 50 teams have ZERO chance of winning the national championship before the season starts. If you are a member of the Sun Belt, MAC, WAC, Conference USA or Mountain West, you are playing for a conference title and perhaps a better bowl than the normal year. But that's it. No matter what teams from these conferences do, they will not be able to play for a national title. And yes, that applies to Boise State. I can see how this year will turn out already. The Broncos got a very big win over Georgia, in Atlanta, but unless the Bulldogs go on to win the SEC East, it will mean very little. Other than the quarterback, Murray, I didn't see a whole lot from UGA to make me think that's a possibility, so I have little doubt the ESPN pundits are already writing their take aways on how Boise got a weak SEC team from the weaker division. Add on to that the fact TCU lost to Baylor, and beating the Horned Frogs this year won't do anything to truly help Boise State. The Broncos will most likely finish the year undefeated, but a one loss LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, Wisconsin or one of numerous other teams from the BCS conferences will finish ahead of Boise. The shame of this is that Boise may be the best team in the country. They have the best quarterback and despite the constant questions of their depth, they continually reload every year and continue beating anyone that will play them. So my hope for the season is that Boise finishes with no losses, cause I love to hear the excuses on why they don't belong. Just stop telling the word that college football already has a playoff, and one loss ends your season. The only team already in that situation is Boise, and they keep getting reminded they are lucky to have that chance.
We went 3-2 the first weekend of college football season. It looked like we were on our way to 4-2, but bad weather forced an early end to the WVU-Marshall game. No guarantee we would have gotten the over, but with nearly all the 4th quarter left we only needed one touchdown to secure the push. No matter, 3-2 isn't a bad start and there is one game left tonight. Miami is heading north to play Maryland and are going without 8 players that are suspended for their roles in off the field issues. That has caused the line to move to Maryland -4. All the hype is always around all the talent Miami has and the suspensions won't hurt too much cause of their depth. But the fact is, with that talent they have barely been above average the last few years. The new coach, Al Golden, was to fix that, but he has been a bit distracted. Meanwhile, Maryland has a new coach as well, Randy Edsall, and they also have back a very good quarterback Danny O'Brien. I look for Maryland to get up early, creating a few turnovers, and Miami to not be able to bounce back. Maryland should win comfortably and I'm laying the 4 points. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
We went 3-2 the first weekend of college football season. It looked like we were on our way to 4-2, but bad weather forced an early end to the WVU-Marshall game. No guarantee we would have gotten the over, but with nearly all the 4th quarter left we only needed one touchdown to secure the push. No matter, 3-2 isn't a bad start and there is one game left tonight. Miami is heading north to play Maryland and are going without 8 players that are suspended for their roles in off the field issues. That has caused the line to move to Maryland -4. All the hype is always around all the talent Miami has and the suspensions won't hurt too much cause of their depth. But the fact is, with that talent they have barely been above average the last few years. The new coach, Al Golden, was to fix that, but he has been a bit distracted. Meanwhile, Maryland has a new coach as well, Randy Edsall, and they also have back a very good quarterback Danny O'Brien. I look for Maryland to get up early, creating a few turnovers, and Miami to not be able to bounce back. Maryland should win comfortably and I'm laying the 4 points. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Don't Bite The Hand
Recently, Arian Foster of the Houston Texans tweaked a hamstring during a pre-season game. On the surface, not too big of a deal unless you are a die hard Texans fan. But considering the year Foster had last year and the fact that fantasy football is over a billion dollar business, the injury becomes a much bigger issue. Foster took to his twitter account to call out the people that play fantasy football and were questioning how long he may be out with the injury. In fact, he called them "sick". And he is absolutely right. His point that people only care about others when it affects them is dead on. I don't follow Foster on twitter but in looking at many of his tweets, he seems to be a very thoughtful individual. He comes across as a deep thinker with a very good grasp on the big picture. That's why his tweet calling out fantasy players surprised me.
Even though I agree with Foster's points on this issue, it was probably something best kept to himself. When you have chosen to be in a profession that pays you millions of dollars and gives you the platform where people will pay attention to what you say, it may be wise to not offend the people that provide that living. Gambling on football in this country is a multi billion dollar industry. And don't fool yourself, fantasy football is just another version of betting on football. The NFL can try to distance itself in public from gambling as much as it wants, but without it the league would be nowhere near as popular as it currently is. The NFL makes its money from television deals. Networks are willing to fork over the huge dollars because they know people will tune in every week like clockwork. But what the NFL and the networks don't like to talk about is the real reason most of those people tune in; gambling. With games once a week, football is the perfect partner for sports bettors and fantasy players alike. It doesn't require daily attention, though most people will give it some thought daily while surfing sports sites for info, and the games basically all start and end at the same time every week. This allows for the average Joe to plan accordingly and the ability to sit in front of his tv to watch the games and players he has "bet" on. So Mr. Foster, yes, people are sick. But if not for these sick people, it is highly unlikely you would be making the dollars you are and it is an almost certainty that you wouldn't have nearly 70,000 followers on twitter to share your deep insights with. Be careful biting the hand that feeds you.
Now that football is here, finally, we can get away from picking baseball. I'll be sure to give some insight once post season is here, but until then we'll keep our focus on football. If you follow me on twitter, which I'm pretty sure you don't, you would have had my two winners last night, UNLV +35 and Bowling Green +6. I actually liked the Falcons on the money line and that won as well. So we are off to a good start at 2-0 and I have another winner tonight with TCU. The Horned Frogs are laying 3.5 against Baylor and I am expecting a relatively easy cover. Be sure to get on twitter and follow me for daily winners, @vegasobie is my handle. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
Even though I agree with Foster's points on this issue, it was probably something best kept to himself. When you have chosen to be in a profession that pays you millions of dollars and gives you the platform where people will pay attention to what you say, it may be wise to not offend the people that provide that living. Gambling on football in this country is a multi billion dollar industry. And don't fool yourself, fantasy football is just another version of betting on football. The NFL can try to distance itself in public from gambling as much as it wants, but without it the league would be nowhere near as popular as it currently is. The NFL makes its money from television deals. Networks are willing to fork over the huge dollars because they know people will tune in every week like clockwork. But what the NFL and the networks don't like to talk about is the real reason most of those people tune in; gambling. With games once a week, football is the perfect partner for sports bettors and fantasy players alike. It doesn't require daily attention, though most people will give it some thought daily while surfing sports sites for info, and the games basically all start and end at the same time every week. This allows for the average Joe to plan accordingly and the ability to sit in front of his tv to watch the games and players he has "bet" on. So Mr. Foster, yes, people are sick. But if not for these sick people, it is highly unlikely you would be making the dollars you are and it is an almost certainty that you wouldn't have nearly 70,000 followers on twitter to share your deep insights with. Be careful biting the hand that feeds you.
Now that football is here, finally, we can get away from picking baseball. I'll be sure to give some insight once post season is here, but until then we'll keep our focus on football. If you follow me on twitter, which I'm pretty sure you don't, you would have had my two winners last night, UNLV +35 and Bowling Green +6. I actually liked the Falcons on the money line and that won as well. So we are off to a good start at 2-0 and I have another winner tonight with TCU. The Horned Frogs are laying 3.5 against Baylor and I am expecting a relatively easy cover. Be sure to get on twitter and follow me for daily winners, @vegasobie is my handle. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.
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