Friday, September 16, 2011

An Experiment Doomed for Failure

Week 3 of college football is upon us, and the season is already producing some intriguing storylines.  This week has the potential to shape the race for the title as #1 Oklahoma travels to Tallahassee and play #5 Florida State.  There are plenty of other great games as well, with THEE Ohio State University playing Miami(FL), Auburn going into Clemson and Michigan State playing Notre Dame.  What a wonderful Saturday we shall have.  I've been picking pretty well this season, going a combined 14-7 last week with college and pro games.  Knowing how hard it is to pick winners and my own history, that rate cant continue.  But I thought now may be the best time to pick every game between FBS teams this weekend...all 47 of them.  Now, obviously I realize this is a horrible idea and I would never actually bet this many games.  I will be sure to let you know which of these picks I will actually be betting.  Either way, this could be fun...no one can turn away from a train wreck.  Oh...and for good measure I'll pick the over/under too.

Iowa State +4 at UCONN, 44.5  I'm not a huge fan of the Cyclones, but in this matchup I actually believe they are better coached and have the better quarterback, so give me the points along with the OVER.

Boise State -20 at Toledo, 59.5 The Glass Bowl can be a tough place for teams to go into and get the win, but this Boise team is awesome.  I also believe the performance of the Rockets at THEE Ohio State University last Saturday will get the Broncos full attention.  I will be betting the OVER in this game as I expect Toledo to find the end zone a few times but Boise wins comfortably producing alot of points.

West Virginia +1 at Maryland, 57.5 Making this pick with the belief the Mountaineers team from the second half last week will show up.  Also, even though Maryland won and covered against Miami(FL), they were not very impressive versus that depleted roster.  I will be betting the OVER as both teams will score.

Auburn +3.5 at Clemson, 60.5 This was a great game last season in Auburn where War Eagle pulled out the win in overtime.  I'm not sold on this years Auburn squad, but until they get beat, I'll take points with them everytime.  I also lean toward the OVER since both teams seem to enjoy allowing other teams to score.

Pittsburgh +3 at Iowa, 50.5 I am not impressed by either of these teams, but the whole world seems to be on Iowa, and that scares me.  There is very solid reasoning for that choice, however that is a red flag for me, so I'll take the points along with the UNDER.

Cincinnati -34 vs. Akron, 56.5 This is the first home team I am taking, but I'm picking UC more based on the opponent than the Bearcats themselves.  The Zips are fighting it out to be the worst team in FBS this season with Memphis, UNLV and Florida Atlantic.  UC can name their score, and I'm thinking they will coming off the loss to Tennessee.  I'll also take the OVER thinking UC gets it on their own. 

Wyoming +9.5 at Bowling Green, 54.5 This was tough for me, being a BGSU alum, but it is in my head that everytime BG starts to show positive signs and is a favorite, they fail miserably.  I also think this is the best defense the Falcons have seen so far this season so will also take the UNDER

Michigan -28.5 vs Eastern Michigan, 61 The Wolverines are riding high with a new coach and great comeback win over Notre Dame.  They will score plenty of points here to cover but I'll also take the UNDER as the Eagles will have trouble finishing in the end zone. 

Penn State -7 at Temple, 46 Temple is hosting Penn State but I find it hard to believe the crowd will be totally in their corner.  This should be a very good game, but in the end I look for the Nittany Lions to get the cover while the game stays UNDER.

Central Michigan +7.5 at Western Michigan, 54 This should be a highly competitive game, so I'll take the touchdown plus.  CMU has also won 5 straight in this series, so any psychological edge goes their way.  Both teams will put points up though, so I like the OVER.

Vanderbilt +2.5 vs Mississippi, 47 Vandy is off to a 2-0 start and actually has a pretty good recent history with the Rebels.  As the home team and getting points, I love them here along with the game staying UNDER.

Duke +7 at Boston College, 47.5 This looks like an awful game on paper with both teams 0-2, and I'm expecting it to be awful on the field too.  The Eagles offense is awful right now and Duke's is not much better.  I expect a low scoring game to stay UNDER 47.5 so I'll also take the 7 points.

Kansas +14.5 at Georgia Tech, 62 Kansas pulled the upset on Tech last year at home, so this could be a revenge game for the Yellow Jackets.  While they should get the win, I think it stays within two touchdowns but it will also go OVER the total. 

Colorado State +7 vs Colorado, 50.5 This game is a neutral field game being played in Denver.  Colorado State has played well this year and I think in this rivalry game 7 is just too many this season.  The game will be UNDER as well. 

Northern Illinois +16.5 vs Wisconsin, 64.5 Another neutral field game, with this one being played in Chicago.  The Huskies new coach this year comes from Wisconsin, where he was the defensive coordinator the last 3 years.  If anyone is familiar with the Badgers personnel, it will be him.  UNI tries to pound the ball with the run game and control the clock, so I like the Huskies and the UNDER.

Miami(OH) +5 at Minnesota, 46.5 Miami is actually a very good MAC team and is quite familiar with the system Minnesota now runs with former MAC coach Kill at the helm.  The Gophers should be motivated after losing at home to New Mexico State last week along with dealing with their coach's health issues this week.  I still think the Redhawks win this game and the total stays UNDER

Tennessee +10 at Florida, 51 The Volunteers looked very good against Cincinnati last week while this will be a big step up in competition for Florida.  The quarterback play for Tennessee will be enough to keep them in this game while both teams score and the game goes OVER.

Michigan State +5 at Notre Dame, 51.5 Until Notre Dame actually plays a good game I won't believe they are a good team.  I will happily take the 5 points with the Spartans and I look for their defense to do very well as the total stays UNDER.

Virginia +10.5 vs North Carolina, 48 UVA has won 10 of 13 in this series while UNC hasn't won back to back since the early 80's.  On top of that, the Cavaliers are in the second year with Coach London and get the Heels at home.  This should be a low scoring game and 10.5 is way too much.  I like Virginia enough that I will bet them myself.  I also like the UNDER

Texas -3.5 at UCLA, 44 Neither offense here is dynamic, but there seems to be more excitement in Austin as they turn to their young talent.  A late score will give the Longhorns the cover as the game stays UNDER.

Nebraska -17 vs. Washington, 55 I keep hearing the play here is Washington, but I think the Huskers look to send a message in their last big game before Big Ten play.  They score early and often as they cover and take the total OVER

Texas Tech -20.5 at New Mexico, 54.5 New Mexico is awful and this game shouldn't be close.  In fact, the Red Raiders may push the total OVER themselves. 

Northwestern -5 at Army, 54.5 The Wildcats look very good this year and should win this game by a touchdown but the total will stay UNDER

San Jose State +6 vs Nevada, 54 This is a situation where until Nevada proves something without Kapernick at quarterback, I'm not buying.  That also leads me to lean toward the UNDER.

Tulane +13 at UAB, 54 Two middle of the pack C-USA teams here but I think they are more evenly matched up than the oddsmakers.  I like taking the points here along with the UNDER

Navy +16.5 at South Carolina, 57.5 I think it's gonna be tough for the Gamecocks to shut down Navy coming off the emotional and physical game with Georgia.  Great athletes for South Carolina on the defensive front but Navy will test their discipline.  I like the points and the game to go OVER

Washington State +5.5 at San Diego State, 57 The Cougars are putting up some points, and even though this is a step up in competition and on the road, I think they keep scoring and win the game.  Both teams will score so I also like the OVER

Kentucky -4.5 vs. Louisville, 41Combined these teams have played 8 halves of football and the only time either looked decent was Kentucky in the second half last week.  I think that carries over and the Wildcats find a way to cover in an ugly game that creeps OVER

Houston -6.5 at Louisiana Tech, 70.5 This may be the final chance to get the Cougars before everyone jumps on board with Case Keenum being back.  Tech won't score much though so I like it UNDER

Ohio -4 vs. Marshall, 49 These teams are pretty evenly matched up, but the Bobcats at home are pretty tough to beat.  Defense will rule the day however as it stays UNDER

Texas A&M -35.5 vs. Idaho, 60 This is a huge number to cover, but any team that loses at home to Bowling Green will not get my money.  It should also fly OVER

Ball State -4.5 vs Buffalo, 52.5 I really like the Cardinals here, especially at home.  So much so that I'm playing them myself.  I also think it stays UNDER

Arizona State +2 at Illinois, 57 The offenses will do well in this game, but I don't believe in Ron Zook.  I was also impressed by the Sun Devils on the road at Wisconsin last year, so I'll take them here along with OVER.

Kansas State -17.5 vs Kent State, 46 I expect the Wildcats offense to show much more this game than they have to this point in the season.  Also, Kent State is pretty awful and has a first year head coach.  I also like the OVER

USC -15 vs Syracuse, 49 This is a game where I'm trusting my gut, and it is saying the USC offense explodes.  The Trojans should win comfortably and the game will go OVER

Florida State +3 vs Oklahoma, 54.5 I really hope this game is as exciting as I think it will be.  In the end, with lots of points scored, I think home field keeps the 'Noles in the game.  Give me Florida State and the OVER

New Mexico State -3 vs. UTEP, 47 A couple pretty bad teams here, but I feel the win at Minnesota gives the Aggies some momentum.  I'll lay the points and I like it to stay UNDER

Miami(FL) -2.5 vs. THEE Ohio State University, 46 In a game where defense should dominate, Miami scores just enough to cover.  It will also stay UNDER

Utah +3.5 at BYU, 46.5 This is possibly the most underrated rivalry in college football.  These schools hate one another and the game is always close.  With that being the case, I'll take the points along with the UNDER

Oklahoma State -13.5 at Tulsa, 68 The Cowboys offense is awesome.  They will not slow down at Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane will put up a few points as well.  OSU gets the cover, but I am betting the OVER myself. 

Hawaii -17.5 at UNLV, 59.5 This line was 20.5 here in Vegas during the week and I have no idea why it is coming down.  I cannot see a way the Rebels keep it close and will be betting Hawaii myself.  It should also easily go OVER

Stanford -8.5 at Arizona, 55.5 Arizona was quite unimpressive at Oklahoma State and it looks to me like Stanford is very motivated this year.  With Luck coming back, the entire teams seems intent on doing what it needs to for him to win the Heisman.  I also think the game gets OVER

TCU -29.5 vs Louisiana-Monroe, 52.5 The Horned Frogs finally get a home game and they will roll in this one.  In fact, I think they get the OVER on their own. 

Arkansas State +24 at Virginia Tech, 53 Tech wins this game comfortably, but 24 just feels like too much to me.  I think ASU gets a few points on the board which will also push the game OVER

Central Florida -5.5 at Florida International, 50.5 UCF is a very good team with a great defense.  They won't allow T.Y. Hilton to go crazy like Louisville did last week.  It also stays UNDER.

North Texas +47 at Alabama, 55 This may be the best time for the Mean Green to catch Bama, between games with Penn State and Arkansas.  Bama wins easy but not by more than 47 as the game stays UNDER

Arkansas -23 vs Troy, 63 The Razorbacks are trying to send a message with every game that they were more than Ryan Mallet last season.  They score a ton in this one and win easily pushing the total OVER

So there it is, for what it's worth.  Come back Monday when I'll assess the damage.   Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.

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