My apologies to my loyal readers, all 6 of you, for the recent hiatus. The family and I went back to Ohio for a few days where my son had the great thrill of meeting and petting OBIE. If you don't know, look it up. But I am back in Vegas now and getting back into the mix by picking all of Saturday's action once again. If you want to know what my actual money will be on, get on twitter and follow me, vegasobie is the handle. This week because I am not being too lazy, I will actually give you a pick for Friday's game as well, enjoy!
Hawaii -5 at San Jose State, 56.5 I'm going with the boys from the Islands in this one. Hawaii has had their off game for the year, here against UNLV, and I expect them to impress on national TV tonight. And while I'm not a big trend bettor, one in this game jumped out at me. Hawaii is 9-1 ATS in last 10 conference games and SJSU is 5-18 ATS in same situation. The Spartans are improved this year, but Hawaii offense will prove to be too much which will also push the game OVER.
North Carolina -2.5 vs. Miami(FL), 52.5 I don't think Miami is that good of a football team this year. Their 2 wins are against Ohio State and Bethune-Cookman, hardly an impressive resume this year. They have also never won in Chapel Hill with the home team winning 10 of the last 11 in this series. As long as this stays at 3 or under, I'm all over the Tar Heels. Neither offense is dynamic so I also like the UNDER.
Penn State -12 vs. Purdue, 41.5 Penn State has only allowed over 10 points in one game all year, and that was against Alabama. Purdue will struggle to find the end zone in this game as they have only looked good against SE Missouri State and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions certainly won't scare anyone with their offense, but at home will find enough points to cover but the game stays UNDER.
Wisconsin -39.5 vs. Indiana, 60.5 Last year the Badgers scored 83 on the Hoosiers and could probably do the same this year if they choose too. While I doubt they will get that many, Coach Bielema isn't one to call off the dogs often. He knows in order to be considered for the BCS Championship game Wisconsin will have to roll teams. This game will be a good tune up for the next two weeks at Michigan State and at Ohio State. The Badgers also get the game to go OVER.
Navy +3.5 at Rutgers, 53 Seems crazy liking Navy in this one after last week. The Midshipmen were hammered by Southern Miss while Rutgers rolled over Pitt. But I don't feel those games truly represent these teams and expect a tight game here so love the .5 point. Both teams will put up some points so I also like OVER.
Duke +12.5 vs. Florida State, 57.5 I don't expect the Seminoles to lose a 4th straight game, but they don't have the confidence in themselves at this point to cover this number. Duke isn't horrible and should be able to limit the FSU offense enough to stay close and keep the game UNDER.
Bowling Green +7.5 vs. Toledo, 59 This was a tough game to pick as the Rockets come in on a roll, crushing both of their opponents after the Syracuse debacle. On the other side, the Falcons have been blown out the last two weeks on the road. But I'm banking on the emotion of a rivalry game on homecoming weekend to aid BGSU in this game. Both teams will score and this game should go OVER.
Maryland +7.5 vs. Clemson, 53.5 This is normally the spot where Clemson reverts back to being Clemson and disappoints their fanbase. I've always liked Clemson and their tradition, so hope I'm wrong. The Terrapins get Clemson this week with a banged up quarterback and will do all they can to control the game with their offense. I expect a tight game but also low scoring, so going with UNDER.
Virginia Tech -6.5 at Wake Forest, 49 Everything seems to be pointing at Wake Forest in this game, but I'm gonna be a big time square here. The Demon Deacons are coming off a home win over Florida State and only have one loss on the season. The Hokies haven't covered a game since week #1 and that was against an FCS opponent. But I think Tech just has more talent and will put it together this week, scoring enough to cover and push the total OVER.
Virginia +7 vs. Georgia Tech, 55.5 I love the Yellow Jackets and Coach Johnson, but feel they are coming back to Earth a bit after an amazing start. The Wahoos have had two weeks to prepare for the Tech offense and will be able to do enough to stay close and keep the total UNDER.
South Carolina -3 at Mississippi State, 47 This is the ultimate case of addition by subtraction for the Gamecocks. With the dismissal of Stephen Garcia from the team, South Carolina can move forward and leave the drama he brought behind them. Not to mention the Bulldogs have been one of the most overrated teams this season, getting pumped up prior to the season simply because they are in the SEC West. South Carolina will be balanced on offense and score enough to push the total OVER.
Buffalo +21 at Temple, 47.5 The Owls are a much better team, but I just cant lay this many points with them. Buffalo isn't horrible and will play enough defense to stay within the number and keep the total UNDER.
Wyoming -10.5 vs. UNLV, 56 What a disaster, once again, the UNLV season is becoming. Any momentum that could have been gained from the Hawaii win, cough cough, is long gone now. The Rebels aren't good, but after the UNR game the last 5 years are even worse, going 0-5 ATS. Also, under Coach Hauck, UNLV is 1-9 ATS on the road. While Wyoming isn't a juggernaut program, they are good enough to handle the Rebels in this game with the total staying UNDER.
Iowa State +15.5 vs. Missouri, 56 After back to back hammer jobs, the Cyclones now travel to Missouri. On paper they shouldn't have much of a chance, but this is just the type of spot where Iowa State can sneak up on someone. And even though the Tigers are also coming off a loss, they have Oklahoma State on deck so may not have total focus. To stay in the game, Iowa State better bring some defense, so I like the UNDER.
Eastern Michigan +12.5 at Central Michigan, 51.5 A good spot for EMU as they catch CMU a week after playing North Carolina State. The Eagles are an improved team this year and will be able to stay close with the Chippewas in this one as the total goes OVER.
Miami(OH) -3.5 at Kent State, 41 Both teams have 1 win on the season, but the Redhawks own Kent State over the years and pick up win number 2 in this game. Both teams will score though and the total will go OVER.
Western Michigan -1 at Northern Illinois, 69 Two of the top teams in the MAC meet in this game and there should be plenty of offense. The Broncos should find just a bit more to win this game and take control of the race to win the MAC West. But with both teams scoring, this game should easily go OVER.
Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Utah, 46.5 This would have been a much bigger game for the Utes in past years, but now that they are in the PAC 12, playing a team from a BCS conference doesn't mean the same. Add to that the game is a Noon EST start and the injuries Utah has at key positions, Pitt should win easily here. With Utah being hard pressed to score I like this game UNDER.
BYU +3 at Oregon State, 51 Considering Oregon State has only one win this year, and it was against the train wreck from Tucson, I cant lay points with the Beavers. I also think the Cougars are improving each week and like them to win this game, but will happily take the points. The game should also see some points and get OVER.
Arizona State +14.5 at Oregon, 66.5 In one of the top games of the week, the Sun Devils catch the Ducks in their first game after star running back LaMichael James injury. Even though Oregon has capable backups, the difference should be just enough to allow ASU to stay within 2 touchdowns. Both teams will score as the total goes OVER.
Baylor +8.5 at Texas A&M, 75.5 The Bears are good this year and the Aggies aren't good enough. While Texas A&M has a great offense, they continually have lapses that allow teams to stay in games. With Robert Griffin III leading the way, Baylor scores plenty of points to keep it close and push the game OVER.
LSU -17 at Tennessee, 46 I really don't like this number, but with the injury to Tennessee's starting quarterback, I find it hard to believe the Volunteers will score many, if any, points. The Tigers will reach the end zone enough times thanks to their defense to cover but the game will stay UNDER.
Washington -15.5 vs. Colorado, 57.5 Here is another game where I'm not very comfortable laying the points, but the Buffaloes are so bad I can't take them. The Huskies are getting better and better each week, and if they didn't have Stanford on deck next week, I would love them here. My fear is they may look ahead but I don't think Colorado will take advantage. The game will be an UNDER.
Michigan +2.5 at Michigan State, 49 The Spartans have had two weeks to prepare for this game, so I expect a few wrinkles from them. The problem is they need those wrinkles this year as their offense has been subpar. With an improved defense coming out of Ann Arbor, the Wolverines should be able to control the game and get the win as the total stays UNDER.
THEE Ohio State University +3.5 at Illinois, 45 The Buckeyes surprised me last week with their play at Nebraska, but when Braxton Miller went down with the injury the team lost all its confidence and energy. He is playing this week and think he finds a way to lead THEE Ohio State University to the cover while the total stays UNDER.
Auburn +2 vs. Florida, 50.5 The Gators come into Auburn after back to back losses to two of the top teams in the country. They also come in with a third string quarterback. Auburn is a much better team at home and will not lose this game. The defenses will rule the day as the game goes UNDER.
Louisville +15 at Cincinnati, 48.5 This game is being played in Paul Brown Stadium, not Nippert Stadium, so the Bearcats lose some of their home field advantage. While the Cardinals have some issues, they have looked good at times this year and will play well this week to get the cover. Cincinnati's offense will struggle which will keep the total UNDER.
Ball State +14.5 at Ohio, 57.5 The Bobcats are coming off an upset at Buffalo while Ball State looks to rebound after a thrashing from Temple. Ohio is the better team, but winning by more than 2 touchdowns will be tough. Both teams will score in this one so I like the OVER.
UTEP +1.5 at Tulane, 57.5 This is a game between a couple of struggling teams, so even though it's only 1.5, I like getting points here. I think the Miners defense shows up to keep the game tight and low scoring as the game stays UNDER.
Mississippi +27 vs. Alabama, 44.5 Unlike a few other teams, Alabama controls their destiny thanks to the conference they are in. This means they don't have to win impressively, but just win. Bama will win comfortably but not score enough to cover this number as the game stays UNDER.
Kansas +35 vs. Oklahoma, 72.5 While the Sooners are great, every year they have at least one game on the road where they don't meet expectations. Oklahoma can win this game easily and still not cover such a big number. If they win out, they should be in the Championship game so style points aren't that important. Those factors allow Kansas to cover and the game to stay UNDER.
New Mexico +29.5 at Nevada, 62 Nevada is coming off it's first home game of the season where it beat rival UNLV handily. While New Mexico shouldn't pose a problem, winning by 30 may be just a bit too much. Both teams will put up a few points so the game will go OVER.
SMU -3.5 vs. Central Florida, 45.5 The Mustangs have been playing good football lately and will handle UCF in this game. The Knights are a much better home team than road team and despite a good defense, will struggle to stop SMU in Dallas. The game will also go OVER.
Colorado State +32 vs. Boise State, 54.5 One think we know Boise won't do is run up the score in the second half. This fact will allow the Rams to keep it just within the number as they lose by 4 touchdowns and the total goes OVER.
Stanford -21 at Washington State, 63.5 Stanford is one team that finds itself in a position where impressions will matter. They need to win and win big when possible. The Cougars are much better this season, but Stanford will roll as the game goes OVER.
Georgia -11 at Vanderbilt, 41 The Commodores looked great early in the season, but the SEC schedule is beginning to catch up to them. At the same time, the Bulldogs are trending up after back to back losses to start the season. Georgia will win and their defense will allow them to cover with the game going UNDER.
Oklahoma State -7 at Texas, 64.5 The Cowboys are on a mission heading toward the showdown with Oklahoma. After last week, the Longhorns will now begin to come back down to Earth after their great start. Plenty of points from OSU in this game as the total goes OVER.
Texas Tech -3.5 vs. Kansas State, 60.5 Tech is one team that KSU has struggled with over the years, and that will continue this season. The Wildcats are a great story this year, but the unbeaten run ends in Lubbock as the Red Raiders score plenty to cover and push the total OVER.
South Florida -7 at Connecticut, 46.5 I like the Bulls here for no other reason than the advantage in coaching. Skip Holtz is light years ahead of Paul Pasqualoni and he has better talent. I expect South Florida to win easily and the game to go OVER.
East Carolina -14 at Memphis, 56 Memphis is awful and I cant pick them, even though ECU isn't very good either. The Pirates find enough points to cover but the game will be UNDER.
Marshall -4.5 vs. Rice, 51.5 The Thundering Herd have been pretty good this year, and I'm not impressed by Rice beating up on Memphis last week. Playing in Huntington gives the Herd a big advantage as well. They will cover and the game will go UNDER.
Northwestern +6.5 at Iowa, 54.5 I love Pat Fitzgerald when his team is an underdog. It didn't work out for them last week which makes me like them even more this week. Won't be surprised if they win outright, but will take the points as the game goes UNDER.
Idaho +1 at New Mexico State, 44.5 This is one awful game that I wouldn't watch if it was the only option. Neither team is any good but the fact the Aggies are at home and only favored by 1 makes me like the Vandals. Not too many points in this game as the total stays UNDER.
Tulsa -21 vs. UAB, 58.5 The Golden Hurricane are coming off a bye and will be looking to explode in this game. The Blazers hung in with Mississippi State last week, but the offense at Tulsa is much better. The game will also go OVER.
Fresno State +3 vs. Utah State, 64 While the Bulldogs haven't been great this year, they play well in this game and take care of the Aggies. Utah State hasn't beaten a good team yet this season and will struggle with the Fresno defense as the game goes UNDER.
North Texas +8.5 at Louisiana-Lafayette, 53.5 Not much was expected from the Ragin' Cajuns this season, but they find themselves at 3-0 in the conference and in control of their own destiny in a quest for their first bowl bid. I think they find a way to beat the Mean Green but are unable to cover the spread and the game will go UNDER.
Troy -8.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 56 Troy has been disappointing this season and will be trying to bounce back from a loss last week. At home they get the job done and cover as the game goes UNDER.
Western Kentucky +2.5 at Florida Atlantic, 43.5 The Hilltoppers are an improving team and program and find a way to not only cover this game but win it outright as the total goes OVER.
So there it is, the winning pick for every game and total in college football for this weekend. Be sure to get on twitter and follow me, vegasobie, to see which games are also getting my money. Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford.
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