Let The Betting Begin

It's finally almost time for the big game.  Oh, wait, I guess since I make zero dollars from this I am allowed to use the words super and bowl to describe the game.  That's right, Super Bowl week is upon us.  As a sidenote, in case you aren't aware, the NFL does have the term Super Bowl trademarked, which is why everyone now just calls it the big game.  Only a matter of time until the NFL owns the trademark on that phrase too...ridiculous.  But I digress.  It's a very big week here in Vegas, and with the Packers and Steelers in this years Championship game, the sports books are anticipating their biggest handle ever on one game.  In an effort to increase that handle books have offered prop bets for years, and every year there seems to be more than the previous year.  For instance, the Superbook at the Hilton Hotel and Casino has 25 pages of prop bets.  25 PAGES!!!  Today I will share a few of these with you to give you an idea of what's going on, and yes, there is a bet on whether the coin toss will be heads or tails.  I will go through the entire packet and pick what I think is the oddest prop on each page.  Page one is fairly normal, with the actual game and first half lines on it.  It also contains the special pointspreads, most appealing to me is the Steelers -10.5 that is paying out +550.  An exciting choice on page 2 is which team will use a coach's challenge first.  Page 3 offers an equally exciting prop, distance of the first punt of the game: over or under 44.5 yards while page 4 gives us will there be a safety.  I enjoy this bet because the payout on yes is +850 since there have only been two in the history of the Super Bowl, none since Super Bowl XXI.  On Page 5 I like, "total number of different players to have passing attempt."  Pages 6 and 7 are boring, just props on individual Steelers players, but page 8 has "total number of different Steelers to have a rushing attempt."  On page 9 you can bet how many 3rd down conversions the Steelers will have while pages 10 and 11 give us props on individual Packers players.  Page 12 provides us with "total first downs by Green Bay Packers" with the total provided as 18.5 and page 13 has total net yards by both teams.  The interesting part of that prop is the total given is 666.5.  On page 14 you can choose from one of many player vs. player props, for instance, most points: Shaun Suisham(PIT) or Mason Crosby(GB), with Suisham getting .5 point.  Things really get interesting on page 15.  This is where the creativity of the Hilton Superbook shows.  You can bet who will have more, Blake Griffin points or Packers Points.  And yes, that is Blake Griffin of the Clippers...an NBA team.  On the next page you can bet if Jrue Holiday of the 76ers has more points than the lead by either team in the Super Bowl.  Seriously...Jrue Holiday.  Here is a fun one from page 17, "who will have more?":  Big Ten points(-40.5) or Packers net yards.  Good luck handicapping that one.  I particularly enjoy page 18 where I can bet whether or not West Ham and Birmingham City will combine for more goals than Aaron Rodgers throws touchdown passes.  Since I'm pretty sure everyone reading this is American, those teams mentioned are members of the Barclay's Premier League...that's soccer over in England.  Page 19 has a few fun props, my favorite being the margin of victory.  You can bet the Steelers win by 34-38 points and get 100 to 1 on your money.  Similar bets on page 20, including choosing the final score for each team.  If you bet either team landing on 2, and you are right, you get paid 9999 to 1...good luck.  The rest of the pages are dedicated to individual players yet again, this time betting on how many yards a player will gain in most instances.  As you can see, there is something for everyone when it comes to betting on the big game.  For those of you having or attending a party to watch the game, these can be some fun items to watch for or even bet on with your friends.  Feel free to contact me if you would like even more examples. 

We went 1-1 this past weekend, continuing to tread water.  I haven't looked at anything for the upcoming week, but I know for sure I will be betting on the Lightning of the NHL in their first game out of the All Star Break.  They are ridiculously good with 2 or more days off this year, so I'll bet the trend continues.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.         

Tiger Tiger Woods Y'all

Tiger Woods just completed his second round of the Farmers' Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.  He sits at 6 under par, well within striking distance of the lead.  While it is unlikely he will prevail this weekend, having him in the mix is great for the game of golf.  His presence makes the sport relevant once again.  Golf will always have its' niche fanbase, but Tiger's impact is incredible.  The ratings go through the roof when he is in contention and the sport becomes a topic of conversation all week long, not just during the weekend.  Another huge impact he has is on the payouts.  Since his arrival on the tour, sponsorship and prize money have seen a dramatic increase.   Whether other players like him or not, they are making more money today than they would be if had never come along.  It begs the question:  why not let him get one early in this season?  I know, professionals are too competitive to roll over.  But if Tiger gets an early win, the money and attention golf would get back would be enormous.  The backend of such a strategy could be huge dollars for everyone.  Just a little something to think about.

An awful week of picks as we went 0-2 to bring us down to 7-8-1 for the year.  But this is the time we bear down and find some winners.  A bit of a strange pick here, the North-South college football all star game.  Sounds like defensive players are impressive and the quarterbacks are leaving a bit to be desired.  Give me under 44.  Next up is Duke versus St. John's in Madison Square Garden.  Steve Lavin has the Red Storm playing much better this year than most expected and this game will be a measuring stick for his team.  The problem is they are facing one of the top 5 teams in the country and also one that plays very well in the Garden.  Duke should be around a 13 point favorite and I will be laying the points, but not more than 15.  Good luck and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose. 

Stop the Ignorance

National sports coverage loves to tell everyone who Vegas has as the favorite in particular games, none more so than the Super Bowl.  The problem is they get the story wrong.  Sure, this year they are accurately reporting that the Packers are a 2.5 point favorite over the Steelers.  The part they miss, or choose to ignore, in their attempt to create a story is why they are the favorite.  The usual line is that "Vegas sees the Packers as 2.5 points better than the UNDERDOG Steelers."  The media loves to have an underdog to create something out of nothing.  In reality, the biggest reason the Packers are the favorite is that smart people setting the line know how popular the Packers are, and no matter what the spread is, more money will get bet on them.  With that knowledge, it only makes sense to start them out as the favorite and then adjust accordingly.  How else would you explain that all season long, in prop bets available in many Vegas books, the AFC was anywhere from a 3 to 5 point favorite.  Now the #2 seed from the AFC is meeting the #6 seed from the NFC, and the line goes opposite.  Public perception is the only explanation, not necessarily what oddsmakers are thinking the result will be.  So please, national sports media...EsPN cough cough...stop the wreckless approach to "journalism" and stick to actual stories, the Steelers are no Rocky Balboa stepping into the ring against Apollo Creed. 

After yet another 1-1 weekend we are now 7-6-1 for the year.  As we keep losing juice each week our small profit margin is dwindling.  But this is a new week and there are plenty of winners out there.  Let's start with a game from the Big 12 tonight as Baylor goes to Manhattan, Kansas to play Kansas State.  Both teams are looking very overrated based on preseason predictions.  That makes this a pretty important game and I lean toward the better coach in that situation, which I believe is on the Baylor sideline.  Coach Martin at KSU is a bit high strung, and with things not going well, his team will feel the pressure, especially in front of a home crowd.  Baylor is getting 5.5 which I will happily take, but don't be surprised if they win outright.  Next up for our midweek pick we will get a bit crazy and look to the NHL.  The Washington Capitals go to Atlanta and take on the Thrashers.  I will be betting the over in this game, even if they set the number at 6.  Both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but they are also equally capable of giving up the goals as well.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.   

The Big Pimp Has A New Whore

Well, for quite awhile it was the SEC, but it looks like EsPN has found themselves a new whore...The University of Texas.  With the announcement of the soon to come Longhorn Network, The University of Texas will have its' own television network run by EsPN.  The Mickey Mouse of sports coverage will be forking over 300 million dollars over the course of the 20 year deal.  Sounds like a sweet deal for Texas, doesn't it??  Especially since it is allowing only 1 football game per year and up to 8 men's basketball games each season for the new network to air.  Do those numbers seem odd to you?  Where does EsPN expect to get their return...on golf?  Something tells me that a few years into the deal, the amount of games may change a bit as I'm sure EsPN wouldn't limit themselves that much.  It feels a bit like a deal with the devil, but Texas needed to make a splash after dissing the Pac-10/12 last summer.  Something else seems a bit odd with all of this.  How objective will EsPN be now with Texas?  We've already seen how they kneel down at the altar of the SEC since that "network" started.  But now all for one school?  Certainly the talking heads representing the Mouse won't hammer on Texas over any issue.  In fact, I bet they will be going out of their way to talk more about Texas, just to keep the school in the news cycle.  They will definitely be using all of their influence to assist the Longhorns in the football polls, as they themselves stand to benefit.  As for the other sports, the NCAA runs tournaments to determine those champions.  But isn't it possible that media coverage influences them as well?  I find it hard to believe that EsPN won't do all it can to help every Longhorn sport receive the highest and most beneficial seed possible in every sport.  So this is where things are now in today's media.  CNBC is Democratic, FoxNews is Republican and EsPN is bleeding burnt orange.  What a sad state of affairs for the sports world. 

After another 1-1 performance during the week our 2011 record is 6-5-1.  We are ahead, but not by much.  This weekend is the conference championship games in the NFL.  The Jets head into Pittsburgh and the Packers travel to Chicago.  The Steelers and Packers are both favored by 3.5 points.  But the best bet I see is the total in the Packers/Bears game.  Currently at 43 the under is a great play.  In the last 10 games between these teams only once has a game gone over that number, and it was back in 2007.  Now, with everything on the line and in the cold weather, I am to believe the offenses will score at will.  I am not buying it, but I am buying the under.  My second pick for the weekend is to take the Bears and the 3.5.  Since I do expect a low scoring game, I'm happy to take the home team with more than a field goal.  The Bears have the better kicker and the better return game which should make the difference on Sunday.  Regardless of the outcomes, both games should be quite entertaining, so sit back, stay warm and enjoy the action.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.

Too Big To Succeed?

At this point in time we've all heard about "too big to fail" when it comes to business.  Apparently the fraudulent banks in this country were too big so we, the people, had to help them out so they could stay in business and continue sticking it to us again and again as a consumer.  But before I go down that road, I need to remember this is about sports, not politics or business.  So I got to wondering if any sports entity could get or be too big to succeed?  Then I noticed that Pitt and Syracuse are playing each other this evening in a marquee matchup of two top teams, both from the Big East.  On a hunch I looked at Pitt's schedule for this season and realized this is the only time these two elite teams play one another.  Taking a closer look, Pitt only plays 3 teams twice during conference play.  Let me repeat that...only THREE teams.  Without looking at every Big East teams schedule, I can only assume this is true for every school.  Is it just me, or is the Big East a bit too big for its own good?  And it isn't just the Big East, as every conference gets bigger, there are less and less home and home matchups.   Now, on the surface, this doesn't seem like a big deal.  I mean, after all, who cares what the Big East does to determine it's own seeding for its own conference tournament.  But looking deeper it does become quite an issue.  We know that the millions of dollars the NCAA dishes out from March Madness is based on how many teams from a conference make the tourney and then in turn how many wins each conference gets in tournament play.  Each team in and each win count for one point, and those points add up during a 6 year window.  The more points you have, the more money you get.  This is why the coaches from top teams, Jim Boeheim, are always whining when one of their bubble teams doesn't get invited to the dance.  So now these top conferences are putting themselves in positions to assist potential bubble teams with their conference scheduling.  I mean, if Providence or Seton Hall can win 9 or 10 games in the vaunted Big East, surely they belong in the tournament over some team from the Missouri Valley...I mean, just look at the competition each one faces.  (I chose these teams only because they have both been recent bubble teams and not due to anything I have looked at for this season.)  The other aspect of this is where the game is played when teams only play once.  Perhaps a team that finds itself on the bubble got more of their tougher opponents at home this particular season, giving them a much better shot at earning that marquee win to impress the selection committee.  Once again, the conference can aid its own teams in building a resume for March with how it schedules the games during January and February.  This is yet another unfair advantage the power conferences use over the smaller conferences and proving yet again that it is all about money and not competition.  So I guess the answer my question is no, the Big East isn't too big to succeed...they are making themselves too big to fail...and we all see how well that works out for most of us.

Another interesting weekend of NFL playoff action.  The favorites went 2-2 both SU and ATS, so we went 2-2 and now sit at 5-4-1 for 2011.  Not bad, but not great either.  Picking games on Mondays will be much tougher without football since I don't look at projected lines from unreliable sites.  Real lines for basketball come out the day of the game, but I'll do what I can.  I already mentioned that Syracuse travels to play at Pitt tonight in what should be a great game.  The Orange will be without one of their top players and Pitt is nearly unbeatable at home.  The line is Pitt -6 and I will be laying the points.  I watched Pitt easily handle Georgetown last week on the road and they look to be hitting on all cylinders since the loss to Tennessee.  Syracuse is due for a clunker so Go Panthers.  A second big game this week is on Wednesday and has Texas A&M going to Austin to play the Longhorns.  I expect Texas to be about a 5 or 6 point favorite but I would be willing to take as little as 3.5.  The Aggies are playing great at the moment and are always in the role of little brother in this matchup.  The Longhorns will not completely look beyond A&M, but I have to believe they realize their next game is against the Jayhawks of Kansas.  Just that little bit of diverted concentration is all it will take to keep this game close.   Good luck and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Better Late Than Never

That is my message to the NCAA and professional sports leagues today.  Hence why this post is a day late as well.  Even if you haven't done the right thing to this point, don't worry, it's not too late, just do it NOW.   Baseball is my main target today.  Expanding the playoffs is a great idea.  Adding another team will help accommodate for tougher than other divisions.  Now a team cant gripe about their division, cause if you don't have one of the best 4 or 5 records in the league, shut your mouth.  The two wild cards play a best of three, no problem, since neither actually won a division crown, they don't need a long series.  The next round going to best of seven though is the greatest idea.  A wild card team shouldn't have an advantage over a team that proved itself as the best in its' division over the course of the season.  But while you are at it baseball, cut out the days off during the playoffs.  The concept that a team needs five starters for the entire season, but can scrape by on three in the playoffs is ridiculous.  Plus, cutting out days off would require more day games, and nothing is better than day playoff baseball.  Playoffs are an extension of the season, not a miniature season.  Also, since these changes are needed, this would push the season much later into the year...not acceptable.  It is time to cut the regular season back to at maximum 154 games.  This is more than enough to determine playoff teams and would actually make those division games mean even more.  Owners that may complain about lost revenue due to less home games can eat it cause in the long run more money will come in from the extra playoff games and that money gets shared across the league.  It's time to make your sport relevant again baseball, and this would be a great step toward that end.

I am going to miss college football, but at least the last game helped me get over .500 for the new year.  Auburn winning along with the first half staying under brings the years record to 3-2-1.  Let's keep the winning ways going as we take a look at this weekends NFL playoff games.  Pretty simple this weekend, bet on all the favorites.  Trends tell us that underdogs and road teams rule the roost during wildcard weekend, but the next week belongs to favorites.  Two main reasons for this are they usually are the much better teams and they have had that extra week of rest, which coming at the end of a season as opposed to week 6 means much more.  Now, more than likely not every favorite will cover, but why try to pick the one that won't, just play them all and be happy with a 3-1 record.  Not one professional bettor would turn that down.  But, just to be official, here are the picks with current spreads.  We are taking the Steelers -3.5, though I did see some -3's in town, and the Falcons are -1 tonight.  Tomorrow we will lay the 10 points with the Bears and finally tomorrow's late game has the Patriots at -9.5, though I will look for better than that, hoping to get -8.5.  Good luck and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Perception is Reality?

So the Big Ten was awful this bowl season.  Worst conference on the planet.  I cant believe they even plan to play the season next year.  Everyone from the midwest should hang their head in shame.  I mean really, a 3-5 record against those awful teams they were playing???  Pathetic!  What?  Oh...you mean they were only favored to win in one of those games, so they weren't playing awful teams?? They were playing better teams in 7 of the matchups, including one game where they were a double digit underdog?   And overall they covered the spread in 5 games...so in Vegas the Big Ten was 5-3???  Well, that doesn't matter, the Big Ten should win every game, even games they aren't supposed to, right EsPN?  And the all powerful SEC once again proved its might by dominating college football.  HUH?  Oh...the SEC is currently 3-4 heading into the "Championship" game?  Well, surely they were facing much superior teams.  No?  You mean they were favored to win in 6 games, with tonight's game being the 7th where they are the favorite??  And in Vegas the SEC is 4-5 against the spread before the showdown tonight??  Yep, all this is true.  So before we buy into the hype from the Mickey Mouse of sports coverage painting the bowl season with a broad brush, let's take a look at reality.  Bowl games are about matchups and motivation.  In many cases this particular season, the Big Ten had opponents that seemed to play with a bit more incentive.  Florida was in its last game with Urban Liar as coach.  TCU was playing for all the small schools.  Alabama was looking to avoid a letdown they suffered two years ago against Utah in a non title game.  As for Michigan vs. Mississippi State...well, Michigan has been an embarrassment to the Big Ten for three years now, so who didn't see that one coming.  Plus the players had no motivation to play for a coach about to get fired.  Now, is all this an excuse for the Big Ten as I attempt to defend its' honor??  Nope.  I really could care less.  This is more of an indictment on EsPN and the effect they could have on next years "Championship" game.  A huge part of making it into that game is your preseason ranking, and the way EsPN continues to portray this years bowl season will affect many of the idiots that get to vote in those polls.  Yet another example of the flaws in college footballs current system to find a "champion".  But then again, it is all about the E in Bristol, Connecticut...not the s...so don't look for them to do the right thing.

Well, thanks to the dog killers choke job and the Eagles loss, we only went 1-1 this weekend to put us at 1-2-1 for 2011.  I just wish I would have had the foresight to go with Seattle on the money line instead of just taking the points.  Oh well, a win is a win.  On to the next games, and why not pick a winner in tonight's "Championship" game.  Oregon should have been favored in this game, but for the last several weeks the line has sat at Auburn -3 as the books anticipated the perception the public has of the SEC.  But since yesterday, it has come down to Auburn -1 as the sharp money moves in for the kill.  My head is telling me Oregon, but Once a Tiger, Always a Tiger, and with the game coming down like this, I'll take Auburn -1.  I just have a feeling they will find a way to get it done once again this season.  My second pick I feel much more confident with, and that is playing the total in the first half.  Both of these teams are better in the second half, and given the jitters both should feel early on, I'll take under 37 for the first half.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.

And They Waited

Is the bowl season over yet??  Seriously, are they still playing games?  I mean, it's bad enough that we have to wait until January 10th for the "Championship" game and that they spread out the biggest games over three days now so each gets their prime time slot.  But do we really have to sit through these other games to lead up to the "Championship" game?   The hypocrisy of this many games so late in the year is laughable.  After all, one of the BCS Cartel's(see the book Death to the BCS) arguments against a playoff is all the time away from school.  Most playoff games would be while the schools are on break, leaving only two teams still involved this week.  But under the current system, 10 teams are involved in games this week while I believe most schools are back in session.  If my math is correct, and I'd like to think it is, that is players from 8 extra teams missing classes.  Also, not only do players travel and miss classes, what about the cheerleaders, band members and student trainers???  That is at a minimum of 150 kids from each school, making it at least 1200 kids missing classes so we can keep the Cartels pockets lined and power in place.  What a joke!!  Please...everyone...read Death to the BCS. 

So the new year is off to a not so great start.  Miami won out right, making the MAC 2-2 this bowl season.  Quite a showing for them given their recent history, and giving me my first loss of the new year.  The Sugar Bowl landed right on the number, thanks to the inept performance of the Arkansas offense down the stretch, so I am 0-1-1 in 2011.  In protest to the ridiculous bowl games this weekend, I'll pick games from the NFL playoffs this weekend.  First up is the Saturday game between the Saints and Seahawks.  Hasselbeck is starting for Seattle and the running game for the Saints is banged up.  Look for the Seahawks to keep it close so I will take the 10 points.  Then on Sunday the Packers travel to Philadelphia to battle the Eagles.  Everyone I hear has the Packers with the edge, and that makes sense.  But most often, when everyone agrees, they are wrong.  Give me the Eagles minus the 2.5 points and after the weekend we'll be cashing our tickets.  Good luck and remember to never bet what you cant afford to lose.

Let's Take A Deep Breath

This story isn't up to the minute, but due to the holidays, I am a bit behind.  In today's media cycle this story is eons old, but in reality it was only last week.  Several players from Thee Ohio State University apparently didn't understand or care about THEE NCAA's rules.  They violated the rules and were then punished.  This is where the world came to an end, at least it seemed so according to most people.  The players were suspended from the first 5 games of next season but not this years bowl game.  My first instinct, and apparently everyone on EsPN's, was what a ridiculous ruling.  But now that I have had time to think about it, this is much harsher.  Before we go any further, full disclosure, I am from Ohio.  However, I don't think anyone that knows me would call me an apologist for THEE Ohio State University.  My allegiance in college athletics belong to another school from Ohio.  So, back to the issue at hand.  IF these players come back next year, does anyone realize what this will potentially do to the Buckeyes season???  The first 5 games include a road game at Miami(FL) and the Big Ten opener against Michigan State.  Then, the first game back for these players, when I would guess there will be some rust, is AT Nebraska.  Before the suspended players even play a down THEE Ohio State University could be out of the national title talk and facing an uphill climb within the Big Ten.  As for the bowl game this year, IT'S AN EXHIBITION GAME!!!!  It will make no difference toward determining this years national champion.  The game essentially means nothing.  I certainly don't want to hear what it means toward recruiting or perception of a conference, cause any kid that chooses a school based on one game isn't too intelligent and perception can change overnight if EsPN determines it should.  And speaking of EsPN and their coverage of this, who the hell decided to let Mark May unload on this???  Talk about being obviously biased toward the Big Ten.  To make a statement "guaranteeing Ryan Mallet would have been suspended for the bowl game" is ludicrous.  Then, to compare this to the punishments handed out to SEC players is apples to oranges.  The two examples he used had involvement with agents, much worse scenario.  Also, AJ Green was suspended four games and Marcell Dareus suspended 2 games.  THEE Ohio State University players are being suspended for 5 games.  Oh, and let us not forget the oh so convenient ignoring of the rules by the NCAA in the Cam Newton case.  Had Newton played for a Big Ten school Mark May's head may have exploded.  Needless to say, the players should have to sit out the bowl game, but in the end, it doesn't matter cause the game itself doesn't matter.  Except to the NCAA and T.V. executives that want high ratings to sell advertising for higher dollars the next time around.  Once again, money rules the day in the world of sports.

Before we get to the picks section, everyone...and I mean everyone...that is a fan of college football needs to read the book Death to the BCS.  It does a great job of exposing exactly how fraudulent the current system is.  Read this book and your head may explode like Mark May's. 

I suggested betting against the MAC in every bowl game, and so far you would be 2-1...unless of course you were a dope and waited to the very last minute to get Florida International.  In the last hours leading up to the game the smart money came in and turned the Golden Panthers from an underdog to a 2 point favorite.  You have more chance as Middle Tennessee will take on Miami(OH) on Thursday night.  The game is currently a pick 'em, so don't wait any longer.  Since we talked about THEE Ohio State University so much, let's look at their exhibition game against Arkansas.  The Buckeyes are favored by 3.5 with the over/under at 56.5.  Given all that's going on, nobody is talking about the Razorbacks.  Look for them to be fired up and put some points on the board.  Hell, I could go on the field with my nine month old son and score on a Big Ten defense.  That being said, I'll stick to just playing the over.  Good luck, and remember, don't bet what you can't afford to lose.