Stop the Ignorance

National sports coverage loves to tell everyone who Vegas has as the favorite in particular games, none more so than the Super Bowl.  The problem is they get the story wrong.  Sure, this year they are accurately reporting that the Packers are a 2.5 point favorite over the Steelers.  The part they miss, or choose to ignore, in their attempt to create a story is why they are the favorite.  The usual line is that "Vegas sees the Packers as 2.5 points better than the UNDERDOG Steelers."  The media loves to have an underdog to create something out of nothing.  In reality, the biggest reason the Packers are the favorite is that smart people setting the line know how popular the Packers are, and no matter what the spread is, more money will get bet on them.  With that knowledge, it only makes sense to start them out as the favorite and then adjust accordingly.  How else would you explain that all season long, in prop bets available in many Vegas books, the AFC was anywhere from a 3 to 5 point favorite.  Now the #2 seed from the AFC is meeting the #6 seed from the NFC, and the line goes opposite.  Public perception is the only explanation, not necessarily what oddsmakers are thinking the result will be.  So please, national sports media...EsPN cough cough...stop the wreckless approach to "journalism" and stick to actual stories, the Steelers are no Rocky Balboa stepping into the ring against Apollo Creed. 

After yet another 1-1 weekend we are now 7-6-1 for the year.  As we keep losing juice each week our small profit margin is dwindling.  But this is a new week and there are plenty of winners out there.  Let's start with a game from the Big 12 tonight as Baylor goes to Manhattan, Kansas to play Kansas State.  Both teams are looking very overrated based on preseason predictions.  That makes this a pretty important game and I lean toward the better coach in that situation, which I believe is on the Baylor sideline.  Coach Martin at KSU is a bit high strung, and with things not going well, his team will feel the pressure, especially in front of a home crowd.  Baylor is getting 5.5 which I will happily take, but don't be surprised if they win outright.  Next up for our midweek pick we will get a bit crazy and look to the NHL.  The Washington Capitals go to Atlanta and take on the Thrashers.  I will be betting the over in this game, even if they set the number at 6.  Both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but they are also equally capable of giving up the goals as well.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.