Monday, January 17, 2011

Too Big To Succeed?

At this point in time we've all heard about "too big to fail" when it comes to business.  Apparently the fraudulent banks in this country were too big so we, the people, had to help them out so they could stay in business and continue sticking it to us again and again as a consumer.  But before I go down that road, I need to remember this is about sports, not politics or business.  So I got to wondering if any sports entity could get or be too big to succeed?  Then I noticed that Pitt and Syracuse are playing each other this evening in a marquee matchup of two top teams, both from the Big East.  On a hunch I looked at Pitt's schedule for this season and realized this is the only time these two elite teams play one another.  Taking a closer look, Pitt only plays 3 teams twice during conference play.  Let me repeat that...only THREE teams.  Without looking at every Big East teams schedule, I can only assume this is true for every school.  Is it just me, or is the Big East a bit too big for its own good?  And it isn't just the Big East, as every conference gets bigger, there are less and less home and home matchups.   Now, on the surface, this doesn't seem like a big deal.  I mean, after all, who cares what the Big East does to determine it's own seeding for its own conference tournament.  But looking deeper it does become quite an issue.  We know that the millions of dollars the NCAA dishes out from March Madness is based on how many teams from a conference make the tourney and then in turn how many wins each conference gets in tournament play.  Each team in and each win count for one point, and those points add up during a 6 year window.  The more points you have, the more money you get.  This is why the coaches from top teams, Jim Boeheim, are always whining when one of their bubble teams doesn't get invited to the dance.  So now these top conferences are putting themselves in positions to assist potential bubble teams with their conference scheduling.  I mean, if Providence or Seton Hall can win 9 or 10 games in the vaunted Big East, surely they belong in the tournament over some team from the Missouri Valley...I mean, just look at the competition each one faces.  (I chose these teams only because they have both been recent bubble teams and not due to anything I have looked at for this season.)  The other aspect of this is where the game is played when teams only play once.  Perhaps a team that finds itself on the bubble got more of their tougher opponents at home this particular season, giving them a much better shot at earning that marquee win to impress the selection committee.  Once again, the conference can aid its own teams in building a resume for March with how it schedules the games during January and February.  This is yet another unfair advantage the power conferences use over the smaller conferences and proving yet again that it is all about money and not competition.  So I guess the answer my question is no, the Big East isn't too big to succeed...they are making themselves too big to fail...and we all see how well that works out for most of us.

Another interesting weekend of NFL playoff action.  The favorites went 2-2 both SU and ATS, so we went 2-2 and now sit at 5-4-1 for 2011.  Not bad, but not great either.  Picking games on Mondays will be much tougher without football since I don't look at projected lines from unreliable sites.  Real lines for basketball come out the day of the game, but I'll do what I can.  I already mentioned that Syracuse travels to play at Pitt tonight in what should be a great game.  The Orange will be without one of their top players and Pitt is nearly unbeatable at home.  The line is Pitt -6 and I will be laying the points.  I watched Pitt easily handle Georgetown last week on the road and they look to be hitting on all cylinders since the loss to Tennessee.  Syracuse is due for a clunker so Go Panthers.  A second big game this week is on Wednesday and has Texas A&M going to Austin to play the Longhorns.  I expect Texas to be about a 5 or 6 point favorite but I would be willing to take as little as 3.5.  The Aggies are playing great at the moment and are always in the role of little brother in this matchup.  The Longhorns will not completely look beyond A&M, but I have to believe they realize their next game is against the Jayhawks of Kansas.  Just that little bit of diverted concentration is all it will take to keep this game close.   Good luck and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

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