Why only IF?

There has been alot of talk about Penn State and its' football program lately.  The general discussion is now revolving around what type of sanctions, if any, should be put on PSU.  Opinions range from nothing should be done to the death penalty should be used on the football program.  Paul Jarley, Dean of the Lee Business School at UNLV looked at things from a business and academic standpoint and made the point, "...that if the allegations of abuse and institutional cover-up involving the Sandusky incident are all true, the business case for closing down Penn State football is a strong one."  I agree with what Dean Jarley says, but actually go further.  I think we already know the allegations of institutional cover-up are true.  As for Jerry Sandusky and what he is accused of, as it pertains to the fate of Penn State football, it does not matter.

My basis for believing the cover-up is true comes from the grand jury testimony of Tim Curley and Gary Schultz.  After Mike McQueary told them what he saw, they ordered Sandusky not to bring children on campus and reported the incident to Sandusky's foundation, The Second Mile.  This leads one to believe they knew something was wrong.  Stopping there and not taking the report to the proper state authorities is the definition of trying to cover it up.  What reasons would they have for not turning the information over to the police?  I don't believe Curley or Schultz are trained investigators, nor did they even try.  Their only thoughts were to protect the Penn State football program and themselves.  After all, Sandusky was a retired coach that the school would have been able to distance itself from very easily.  How on earth could we have known something like this was going on? The "Jerry was a pillar in our community and he had everyone fooled" would have been a very compelling argument coming from a respected institute like Penn State.  The only problem was, this wasn't the first incident, and by turning Sandusky in this time they would have in essence been turning themselves in.  So the cover-up was on, or in this case, continued.  These actions took place by the leaders of the University, and regardless of Sandusky's guilt or innocence, Penn State administrators put the entire reputation of the school at risk for the football program.

Now I realize there will be those that argue that innocent players, both current and future, at Penn State would be getting punished and those people would be correct.  But unfortunately, that's life.  In a case like this, where it involves an institution that stands for things much bigger than athletics, a message needs to be sent.  Rather than think of the players that would be punished, why don't we focus on the good it could do for Penn State along with the message it would send to other institutions.  Because I'll be honest, I have zero doubt that at other schools there are administrators that would willingly fall on the sword to protect the brand and if that were to happen just one more time it would be one time to many.  It may be bad for Penn Staters, but it's time a message is sent that athletics exist to compliment the university, not the other way around. 

For those that would like to read Dean Jarley's entire commentary, here is a link.  http://business.unlv.edu/dean/the-business-case-for-closing-penn-state-football/

When Do The Games Get Good?

We had a 1-1 day to keep us at .500 for the bowl season but Wednesday gives us two more chances to get on the plus side of the ledger.  First up is the Military Bowl, in which Toledo takes on the Air Force Academy.  The crowd in this one should be decidedly on the side of the Falcons, since no MAC school has a following worth talking about.  Given the size of the stadium, however, I'm not sure it will make much of a difference as most of the seats will be empty.  As for the action on the field, Toledo has been scoring a billion points a game, give or take a few.  The problem is they have been giving up a billion per game.  The Rockets do come in with a balanced attack as they are able to pass and run the ball efficiently.  The numbers look good for Toledo on defense against the run, but that is most likely because my 2 year old son could throw the ball over the field on them.  They will see a heavy dose of run plays in this game, but I think with the extra preparation time and an experienced front seven the defense will get the stops when needed.  Toledo will keep the AFA in the game with a few early turnovers, but in the end will win by a touchdown and cover the 3 points. 

In the nightcap tomorrow, the Texas Longhorns will play the Cal Golden Bears in the Holiday Bowl.  There isn't much debate for me in this game.  I am a fan of who teams have played during the season, and the Longhorns coming out of the Big 12 have had a much tougher schedule.  Seeing what Missouri was able to do only made me a bigger believer in the conference this bowl season.  While Texas has had struggles on offense this year, their defense is stout and should be able to control a mediocre Cal offense.  Winning the battle of field position will give the Longhorns offense enough easy scoring opportunities to get the job done and win going away, easily covering the 4 points.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Climbing the Ladder

Another easy win has us back to .500 this bowl season, nothing to shout about, but considering we were 0-4 at one point, nothing to sneeze at either.  Tuesday serves us up 2 stellar bowl games, first the Little Caesars Bowl and then the Belk Bowl.  Let's start with the Little Caesars Bowl where Western Michigan from the MAC takes on Purdue from the Big Ten.  The Boilermakers opened as a 1 point favorite and have climbed to 3 at most books now.  Purdue at 6-6 is not your typical disappointed Big Ten team playing in Detroit.  This is their first bowl game since the same game in 2007, which they won over Central Michigan 51 to 48, and their season earned Coach Hope a two year extension on his contract.  Justified or not, the mood in West Lafayette is good and things seem to be on an upward arc at the moment.  Gaining a bowl win would only add to that and aid in recruiting.  The Broncos are in a similar situation as they play their first post season game since a 2008 loss to Rice in the Texas Bowl.  In fact, WMU has never won a bowl game, going a combined 0-4 over the years.  But like most MAC teams, WMU won't be intimidated playing against the Big Ten as this will be their third such game this season.  The Broncos opened with a loss to Michigan and three weeks later lost a tight one to Illinois.  Neither team will jump off the paper at you with a great statistical edge, but Purdue should have no problem scoring on the WMU defense.  On the other side, Alex Carder leads a potent WMU attack that should be able to match the Boilermakers in points.  I like taking the points in this game as it could be a last one with the ball wins the game situation.  The safer bet may very well be the OVER, but I'm sticking to just the side and the Broncos.

The second game of the night has Louisville playing North Carolina State in the Belk Bowl.  The Cardinals are one of the surprise teams this season, finishing in a 3 way tie as Big East Champs.  Coach Charlie Strong is doing an incredible job and this seasons success can mostly be attributed to a great defense and a developing young QB, Teddy Bridgewater.  No doubt that Louisville will look to use this game as a springboard into next season and should play with quite a bit of motivation.  It may even help them that the game is in Charlotte, North Carolina as the crowd will be mostly pro Wolfpack.  Often times the us against the world mentality can help a young team stay focused.  As for NCSU, the bowl game appearance comes at the end of a very up and down season.  At times, they have looked awful, such as a Thursday night blowout at the hands of another Big East team, Cincinnati.  But at the end of the season the Wolfpack were playing their best football with easy wins over Clemson and Maryland.  Add to that Coach Tom O'Briens bowl record, a ridiculous 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS, and it's hard not to like NCSU.  Now, most of those games for Coach O'Brien came as an underdog while at Boston College, and in this game he finds himself as the favorite, albeit a very small one.  Conference affiliation doesn't help much either in this game as the ACC and Big East are by far the weakest of the BCS conferences.  But I simply cannot go against the O'Brien magic and will lay the 1 point with North Carolina State.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

July 4th in December?

One may get their holidays confused when they flip on their t.v. tonight and see the AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl being played.  But rest assured, it is December and it is a football game, just not a very exciting one.  The Missouri Tigers are a 5.5 point favorite against the North Carolina Tar Heels, and that has gone up since the opening line of Missouri -3.5.  The line and the movement make sense as Missouri is the better team, more stable program, comes from the better conference and is playing better football down the stretch.  Considering how insignificant 5 is in terms of football betting, I'm surprised it has not gone all the way up to 6.  In fact, I think it will, so if you like UNC, wait it out a bit, but if you are looking to bet Mizzou, better get it sooner rather than later.  I can't seem to find an angle that makes me like the Tar Heels, other than the underdog role, which isn't enough for me to bet them.  I am on Missouri and think getting them under a touchdown is a gift.  The ACC is atrocious this season and the Tar Heels couldn't beat any of the top teams.  Missouri would easily be a top team in the ACC as they were middle of the pack in the Big 12.  The losses in conference for the Tigers were expected against the top four teams, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor.  Also, Missouri was left out of the Big 12's affiliated bowls as they announced the departure for the SEC, so look for them to be focused on sending a message to both conferences.  They want the Big 12 to realize they are losing a strong program and to let the SEC know, and in particular recruits, it's ready for the step up in competition.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Alooooha

That Las Vegas Bowl turned out to be pretty easy.  For those looking at playing spots in these bowl games and thought that TCU and Boise were in similar situations, you are right.  The difference in the two this year though was Kellen Moore and Doug Martin.  Both were seniors and their leadership wasn't going to allow the Broncos to be distracted leading up to the game.  It also helped to be playing a rutter-less Arizona State team.  Either way, we got the win and it's time to move on and look for our third in a row.  Tonight is the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, and plenty of good seats are still available.  This year Southern Mississippi will be battling Nevada and with the game on Christmas Eve, not too many folks have made the trip to the islands.  The game opened with USM favored by 6 and has steadily climbed up to 9.  The Golden Eagles are coming off a win at Houston in the C-USA Championship game so the move isn't unexpected.  However, it is now time to get Nevada as I don't expect the line to get any higher and the Wolfpack are the play here.  While the USM win over Houston was impressive, it was also a bigger game to them than this bowl game.  Add on top of that their coach accepting a job at North Carolina and the distractions that come from being on the islands, and I am not expecting a very focused group out of Hattiesburg.  The distractions that come from a trip to Hawaii won't affect the Wolfpack as much as they travel there every other year for a conference game.  Add it all up and 9 points is just a few too many, and I wouldn't be surprised if Nevada pulls off the outright win.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.

2011-2012 bowl record: 2-4

Keep the Ball Rolling

So we finally broke the seal, getting our first W for the bowl season.  TCU was clearly the better team, as they dominated the second half, but the first half allowed Tech to be in the game and gain confidence.  No matter the reason, a win is a win and now it's time to find another one.  The next game up is the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl with Boise State taking on Arizona State.  The line on this game has Boise favored by 14 points, which feels right.  The Broncos are the better team and better coached.  My only concern is the ASU quarterback, Brock Osweiler, who is capable of catching fire and putting points up in a hurry.  However, I think the Broncos defense will get enough stops while Kellen Moore leads Boise to score after score.  In case you are worried about Boise being unfocused after being left out of the BCS, keep in mind the same thing happened last year and they came to Vegas and smoked Utah 26 to 3.  This will also be the Broncos third trip to Las Vegas in the last 12 months, so I don't expect them to be distracted by the sins of our fine city.  If anything, the coaching changes at ASU could lead the Sun Devils to be a bit distracted and unfocused while in town.  Add it all up and I'll lay the big chalk like a square.  I also lean toward OVER 66, but won't be personally be playing it.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.

2011-2012 Bowl Record, 1-4 

The Not So Cat Friendly Bowl

If you are reading this, you have most likely made the decision to fade me, and who could blame you.  I have yet to win a bowl game this season.  One thing I am noticing is that teams with coaches rumored to be moving to bigger positions have struggled(Wyoming and FIU).  Now we have TCU playing Louisiana Tech in the San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.  The Horned Frogs opened as a 12.5 point favorite which seemed a bit too high to me.  Now the line around town is at 9.5, which still seems a bit high.  I would love to see if it climbs back to 10 tomorrow, but will take the points either way.  The Bulldogs have been undervalued all season long, thus their 10-2 record ATS.  In this game, they have an opportunity to prove themselves on the national stage against a very well respected program that is going into the Big 12 next season.  For TCU, the motivation will be a bit harder to come by.  A team that played in the Rose Bowl last season against a Big Ten team, now must get up to play a WAC team.  They also probably dealt with a bit of a hangover from not climbing high enough in the BCS to play in one of those fraudulent games.  On paper these teams are relatively even, with TCU looking a bit better.  But as we are seeing in this years bowl games, that may not matter much.  I'm gonna ride the team with more motivation in this game, despite the rumors Sonny Dykes is moving on to Houston.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Rebound Week

No, the title of this post does not refer to the upcoming NBA season.  It is referring to my awful picks on the first three bowl games of this season.  Out of the 5 picks/leans I had in my last post, only one of them hit, and that was on a game ending field goal.  But there are still plenty of games and opportunities to make money, so no point in looking back except to learn from mistakes. 

First game this week is the Beef 'O Brady Bowl with Florida International taking on Marshall.  The Golden Panthers are currently a 4 point favorite and rightfully so.  They are the better team on paper and on the field.  Typically you would say C-USA is superior to the Sun Belt, and while that may be true, I don't think the gap is as wide as most people believe.  In fact, FIU played a C-USA team this year and came out on top, beating Central Florida 17 to 10.  This is the same UCF team that beat Marshall 16 to 6.  Now, comparing like opponents is no way to pick a game, but it at least provides a starting point.  Bottom line for me in this game is that the better team will also most likely be the more motivated team with a slight home field advantage.  I'll lay the 4 points all day in that situation.  As for the total, it has come down to 48 from the opening line of 51, but I like the OVER.  The speed of FIU on the turf will allow them to put points up and Marshall will be forced to score a few to keep it close.  The most interesting aspect of this "low tier" bowl game is that both of these teams beat Louisville at Louisville, one of the co-champs of the BCS status Big East Conference.  One more point that proves what a joke the post season for college football is. 

Florida International at Louisville Final 1 2 3 4 T Odds Bet Final FLINT 7 14 3 0 24 3 Cover: +10 LOU 0 10 0 7 17 48 Under: 41

Marshall at Louisville Final 1 2 3 4 T Odds Bet Final MARSH 7 0 3 7 17 11 Cover: +15 LOU 0 13 0 0 13 46 Under: 30

Stay tuned all week for my thoughts on the other games.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Bowl-A-Palooza

One of the most wonderful times of the sports year is upon us, bowl season.  A bunch of games that mean very little to the players, the schools' fanbase or the general public.  But for us bettors, it can be a very profitable time.  With just a little bit of work, we can find teams that care playing those that don't.  Teams with coaches trying to impress against teams with lame duck coaches.  There will also be huge mismatches where talent can carry a team to a cover.  So let's get this party started and find some winners. 

The first game of the 2011-2012 bowl season is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl, in which Temple takes on Wyoming.  As of right now, the Owls are a 7 point favorite.  A breakdown of both teams strengths and weaknesses seems to justify this spread.  But bowl games tend to be about much more than the numbers.  For me, there are quite a few factors in this game that are leading me to choose the underdog.  First and foremost among them is the quality of opponents on each teams schedule.  Wyoming plays in the Mountain West Conference while Temple is a member of the MAC.  The quality of teams from top to bottom in these two conferences isn't comparable as the MWC is vastly superior.  Add on top of that the fact Temple avoided playing the MAC champ, Northern Illinois, as well as another bowl bound team Western Michigan and they had some easy sledding in conference.  The bowl teams from the MAC they did play, Toledo and Ohio, both beat the Owls.  As for Wyoming, they did get wins against two bowl teams, Air Force and San Diego State, and both were on the road.  Another big factor to me is the location of this game, Albuquerque, New Mexico.  The Cowboys play a game on this field every other year thanks to conference play and won this bowl game two years ago, as a 10 point underdog.  That familiarity to their surroundings will help the players focus in a bit better than Temple.  Also being used to the altitude will benefit Wyoming as this game will be played at 5,100 feet above sea level.  Any homefield advantage will be the Cowboys given their proximity to the bowl site compared to Temple.  This game will be the furthest west the Owls have traveled in at least 6 years, with Minnesota being the closest trip which was in 2006.  Add all of this up and I expect a close game which makes taking the 7 points an easy call.  This is one game I am already down on, and the only one at the moment, but I'll give you my leanings in the others. 

The second game of the day is Ohio University against Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  The Bobcats enter this game after blowing a 20 point second half lead in the MAC Championship game.  I expect them to be a bit down and un-excited for this game.  As for Utah State, they are pumped to be in a bowl game as even their coach joined the fray by getting a tattoo for them making it in this year.  This is the schools first bowl game since 1997 and they should get quite a bump from the crowd.  I am expecting the Aggies to win by a touchdown and the game to get over the total of 60.

The final game tomorrow is Louisiana-Lafayette against San Diego State in the R&L Carries New Orleans Bowl.  This will be the Ragin' Cajuns first ever bowl appearance and they get it in their home state. While the Aztecs may have more talent, the Cajuns will have more energy and motivation.  Look for Louisiana to play well early, but as the game goes, San Diego State will prove to be too much.  I like the Aztecs to cover the 4 points as this game may fly over the total. 

Good luck and feel free to hit me up on twitter with any questions, you can find me at @vegasobie.  Remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.