Monday, December 26, 2011

Climbing the Ladder

Another easy win has us back to .500 this bowl season, nothing to shout about, but considering we were 0-4 at one point, nothing to sneeze at either.  Tuesday serves us up 2 stellar bowl games, first the Little Caesars Bowl and then the Belk Bowl.  Let's start with the Little Caesars Bowl where Western Michigan from the MAC takes on Purdue from the Big Ten.  The Boilermakers opened as a 1 point favorite and have climbed to 3 at most books now.  Purdue at 6-6 is not your typical disappointed Big Ten team playing in Detroit.  This is their first bowl game since the same game in 2007, which they won over Central Michigan 51 to 48, and their season earned Coach Hope a two year extension on his contract.  Justified or not, the mood in West Lafayette is good and things seem to be on an upward arc at the moment.  Gaining a bowl win would only add to that and aid in recruiting.  The Broncos are in a similar situation as they play their first post season game since a 2008 loss to Rice in the Texas Bowl.  In fact, WMU has never won a bowl game, going a combined 0-4 over the years.  But like most MAC teams, WMU won't be intimidated playing against the Big Ten as this will be their third such game this season.  The Broncos opened with a loss to Michigan and three weeks later lost a tight one to Illinois.  Neither team will jump off the paper at you with a great statistical edge, but Purdue should have no problem scoring on the WMU defense.  On the other side, Alex Carder leads a potent WMU attack that should be able to match the Boilermakers in points.  I like taking the points in this game as it could be a last one with the ball wins the game situation.  The safer bet may very well be the OVER, but I'm sticking to just the side and the Broncos.

The second game of the night has Louisville playing North Carolina State in the Belk Bowl.  The Cardinals are one of the surprise teams this season, finishing in a 3 way tie as Big East Champs.  Coach Charlie Strong is doing an incredible job and this seasons success can mostly be attributed to a great defense and a developing young QB, Teddy Bridgewater.  No doubt that Louisville will look to use this game as a springboard into next season and should play with quite a bit of motivation.  It may even help them that the game is in Charlotte, North Carolina as the crowd will be mostly pro Wolfpack.  Often times the us against the world mentality can help a young team stay focused.  As for NCSU, the bowl game appearance comes at the end of a very up and down season.  At times, they have looked awful, such as a Thursday night blowout at the hands of another Big East team, Cincinnati.  But at the end of the season the Wolfpack were playing their best football with easy wins over Clemson and Maryland.  Add to that Coach Tom O'Briens bowl record, a ridiculous 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS, and it's hard not to like NCSU.  Now, most of those games for Coach O'Brien came as an underdog while at Boston College, and in this game he finds himself as the favorite, albeit a very small one.  Conference affiliation doesn't help much either in this game as the ACC and Big East are by far the weakest of the BCS conferences.  But I simply cannot go against the O'Brien magic and will lay the 1 point with North Carolina State.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

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