Monday, December 26, 2011

July 4th in December?

One may get their holidays confused when they flip on their t.v. tonight and see the AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl being played.  But rest assured, it is December and it is a football game, just not a very exciting one.  The Missouri Tigers are a 5.5 point favorite against the North Carolina Tar Heels, and that has gone up since the opening line of Missouri -3.5.  The line and the movement make sense as Missouri is the better team, more stable program, comes from the better conference and is playing better football down the stretch.  Considering how insignificant 5 is in terms of football betting, I'm surprised it has not gone all the way up to 6.  In fact, I think it will, so if you like UNC, wait it out a bit, but if you are looking to bet Mizzou, better get it sooner rather than later.  I can't seem to find an angle that makes me like the Tar Heels, other than the underdog role, which isn't enough for me to bet them.  I am on Missouri and think getting them under a touchdown is a gift.  The ACC is atrocious this season and the Tar Heels couldn't beat any of the top teams.  Missouri would easily be a top team in the ACC as they were middle of the pack in the Big 12.  The losses in conference for the Tigers were expected against the top four teams, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor.  Also, Missouri was left out of the Big 12's affiliated bowls as they announced the departure for the SEC, so look for them to be focused on sending a message to both conferences.  They want the Big 12 to realize they are losing a strong program and to let the SEC know, and in particular recruits, it's ready for the step up in competition.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

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