Why only IF?

There has been alot of talk about Penn State and its' football program lately.  The general discussion is now revolving around what type of sanctions, if any, should be put on PSU.  Opinions range from nothing should be done to the death penalty should be used on the football program.  Paul Jarley, Dean of the Lee Business School at UNLV looked at things from a business and academic standpoint and made the point, "...that if the allegations of abuse and institutional cover-up involving the Sandusky incident are all true, the business case for closing down Penn State football is a strong one."  I agree with what Dean Jarley says, but actually go further.  I think we already know the allegations of institutional cover-up are true.  As for Jerry Sandusky and what he is accused of, as it pertains to the fate of Penn State football, it does not matter.

My basis for believing the cover-up is true comes from the grand jury testimony of Tim Curley and Gary Schultz.  After Mike McQueary told them what he saw, they ordered Sandusky not to bring children on campus and reported the incident to Sandusky's foundation, The Second Mile.  This leads one to believe they knew something was wrong.  Stopping there and not taking the report to the proper state authorities is the definition of trying to cover it up.  What reasons would they have for not turning the information over to the police?  I don't believe Curley or Schultz are trained investigators, nor did they even try.  Their only thoughts were to protect the Penn State football program and themselves.  After all, Sandusky was a retired coach that the school would have been able to distance itself from very easily.  How on earth could we have known something like this was going on? The "Jerry was a pillar in our community and he had everyone fooled" would have been a very compelling argument coming from a respected institute like Penn State.  The only problem was, this wasn't the first incident, and by turning Sandusky in this time they would have in essence been turning themselves in.  So the cover-up was on, or in this case, continued.  These actions took place by the leaders of the University, and regardless of Sandusky's guilt or innocence, Penn State administrators put the entire reputation of the school at risk for the football program.

Now I realize there will be those that argue that innocent players, both current and future, at Penn State would be getting punished and those people would be correct.  But unfortunately, that's life.  In a case like this, where it involves an institution that stands for things much bigger than athletics, a message needs to be sent.  Rather than think of the players that would be punished, why don't we focus on the good it could do for Penn State along with the message it would send to other institutions.  Because I'll be honest, I have zero doubt that at other schools there are administrators that would willingly fall on the sword to protect the brand and if that were to happen just one more time it would be one time to many.  It may be bad for Penn Staters, but it's time a message is sent that athletics exist to compliment the university, not the other way around. 

For those that would like to read Dean Jarley's entire commentary, here is a link.  http://business.unlv.edu/dean/the-business-case-for-closing-penn-state-football/

When Do The Games Get Good?

We had a 1-1 day to keep us at .500 for the bowl season but Wednesday gives us two more chances to get on the plus side of the ledger.  First up is the Military Bowl, in which Toledo takes on the Air Force Academy.  The crowd in this one should be decidedly on the side of the Falcons, since no MAC school has a following worth talking about.  Given the size of the stadium, however, I'm not sure it will make much of a difference as most of the seats will be empty.  As for the action on the field, Toledo has been scoring a billion points a game, give or take a few.  The problem is they have been giving up a billion per game.  The Rockets do come in with a balanced attack as they are able to pass and run the ball efficiently.  The numbers look good for Toledo on defense against the run, but that is most likely because my 2 year old son could throw the ball over the field on them.  They will see a heavy dose of run plays in this game, but I think with the extra preparation time and an experienced front seven the defense will get the stops when needed.  Toledo will keep the AFA in the game with a few early turnovers, but in the end will win by a touchdown and cover the 3 points. 

In the nightcap tomorrow, the Texas Longhorns will play the Cal Golden Bears in the Holiday Bowl.  There isn't much debate for me in this game.  I am a fan of who teams have played during the season, and the Longhorns coming out of the Big 12 have had a much tougher schedule.  Seeing what Missouri was able to do only made me a bigger believer in the conference this bowl season.  While Texas has had struggles on offense this year, their defense is stout and should be able to control a mediocre Cal offense.  Winning the battle of field position will give the Longhorns offense enough easy scoring opportunities to get the job done and win going away, easily covering the 4 points.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Climbing the Ladder

Another easy win has us back to .500 this bowl season, nothing to shout about, but considering we were 0-4 at one point, nothing to sneeze at either.  Tuesday serves us up 2 stellar bowl games, first the Little Caesars Bowl and then the Belk Bowl.  Let's start with the Little Caesars Bowl where Western Michigan from the MAC takes on Purdue from the Big Ten.  The Boilermakers opened as a 1 point favorite and have climbed to 3 at most books now.  Purdue at 6-6 is not your typical disappointed Big Ten team playing in Detroit.  This is their first bowl game since the same game in 2007, which they won over Central Michigan 51 to 48, and their season earned Coach Hope a two year extension on his contract.  Justified or not, the mood in West Lafayette is good and things seem to be on an upward arc at the moment.  Gaining a bowl win would only add to that and aid in recruiting.  The Broncos are in a similar situation as they play their first post season game since a 2008 loss to Rice in the Texas Bowl.  In fact, WMU has never won a bowl game, going a combined 0-4 over the years.  But like most MAC teams, WMU won't be intimidated playing against the Big Ten as this will be their third such game this season.  The Broncos opened with a loss to Michigan and three weeks later lost a tight one to Illinois.  Neither team will jump off the paper at you with a great statistical edge, but Purdue should have no problem scoring on the WMU defense.  On the other side, Alex Carder leads a potent WMU attack that should be able to match the Boilermakers in points.  I like taking the points in this game as it could be a last one with the ball wins the game situation.  The safer bet may very well be the OVER, but I'm sticking to just the side and the Broncos.

The second game of the night has Louisville playing North Carolina State in the Belk Bowl.  The Cardinals are one of the surprise teams this season, finishing in a 3 way tie as Big East Champs.  Coach Charlie Strong is doing an incredible job and this seasons success can mostly be attributed to a great defense and a developing young QB, Teddy Bridgewater.  No doubt that Louisville will look to use this game as a springboard into next season and should play with quite a bit of motivation.  It may even help them that the game is in Charlotte, North Carolina as the crowd will be mostly pro Wolfpack.  Often times the us against the world mentality can help a young team stay focused.  As for NCSU, the bowl game appearance comes at the end of a very up and down season.  At times, they have looked awful, such as a Thursday night blowout at the hands of another Big East team, Cincinnati.  But at the end of the season the Wolfpack were playing their best football with easy wins over Clemson and Maryland.  Add to that Coach Tom O'Briens bowl record, a ridiculous 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS, and it's hard not to like NCSU.  Now, most of those games for Coach O'Brien came as an underdog while at Boston College, and in this game he finds himself as the favorite, albeit a very small one.  Conference affiliation doesn't help much either in this game as the ACC and Big East are by far the weakest of the BCS conferences.  But I simply cannot go against the O'Brien magic and will lay the 1 point with North Carolina State.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

July 4th in December?

One may get their holidays confused when they flip on their t.v. tonight and see the AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl being played.  But rest assured, it is December and it is a football game, just not a very exciting one.  The Missouri Tigers are a 5.5 point favorite against the North Carolina Tar Heels, and that has gone up since the opening line of Missouri -3.5.  The line and the movement make sense as Missouri is the better team, more stable program, comes from the better conference and is playing better football down the stretch.  Considering how insignificant 5 is in terms of football betting, I'm surprised it has not gone all the way up to 6.  In fact, I think it will, so if you like UNC, wait it out a bit, but if you are looking to bet Mizzou, better get it sooner rather than later.  I can't seem to find an angle that makes me like the Tar Heels, other than the underdog role, which isn't enough for me to bet them.  I am on Missouri and think getting them under a touchdown is a gift.  The ACC is atrocious this season and the Tar Heels couldn't beat any of the top teams.  Missouri would easily be a top team in the ACC as they were middle of the pack in the Big 12.  The losses in conference for the Tigers were expected against the top four teams, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor.  Also, Missouri was left out of the Big 12's affiliated bowls as they announced the departure for the SEC, so look for them to be focused on sending a message to both conferences.  They want the Big 12 to realize they are losing a strong program and to let the SEC know, and in particular recruits, it's ready for the step up in competition.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Alooooha

That Las Vegas Bowl turned out to be pretty easy.  For those looking at playing spots in these bowl games and thought that TCU and Boise were in similar situations, you are right.  The difference in the two this year though was Kellen Moore and Doug Martin.  Both were seniors and their leadership wasn't going to allow the Broncos to be distracted leading up to the game.  It also helped to be playing a rutter-less Arizona State team.  Either way, we got the win and it's time to move on and look for our third in a row.  Tonight is the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, and plenty of good seats are still available.  This year Southern Mississippi will be battling Nevada and with the game on Christmas Eve, not too many folks have made the trip to the islands.  The game opened with USM favored by 6 and has steadily climbed up to 9.  The Golden Eagles are coming off a win at Houston in the C-USA Championship game so the move isn't unexpected.  However, it is now time to get Nevada as I don't expect the line to get any higher and the Wolfpack are the play here.  While the USM win over Houston was impressive, it was also a bigger game to them than this bowl game.  Add on top of that their coach accepting a job at North Carolina and the distractions that come from being on the islands, and I am not expecting a very focused group out of Hattiesburg.  The distractions that come from a trip to Hawaii won't affect the Wolfpack as much as they travel there every other year for a conference game.  Add it all up and 9 points is just a few too many, and I wouldn't be surprised if Nevada pulls off the outright win.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.

2011-2012 bowl record: 2-4

Keep the Ball Rolling

So we finally broke the seal, getting our first W for the bowl season.  TCU was clearly the better team, as they dominated the second half, but the first half allowed Tech to be in the game and gain confidence.  No matter the reason, a win is a win and now it's time to find another one.  The next game up is the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl with Boise State taking on Arizona State.  The line on this game has Boise favored by 14 points, which feels right.  The Broncos are the better team and better coached.  My only concern is the ASU quarterback, Brock Osweiler, who is capable of catching fire and putting points up in a hurry.  However, I think the Broncos defense will get enough stops while Kellen Moore leads Boise to score after score.  In case you are worried about Boise being unfocused after being left out of the BCS, keep in mind the same thing happened last year and they came to Vegas and smoked Utah 26 to 3.  This will also be the Broncos third trip to Las Vegas in the last 12 months, so I don't expect them to be distracted by the sins of our fine city.  If anything, the coaching changes at ASU could lead the Sun Devils to be a bit distracted and unfocused while in town.  Add it all up and I'll lay the big chalk like a square.  I also lean toward OVER 66, but won't be personally be playing it.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.

2011-2012 Bowl Record, 1-4 

The Not So Cat Friendly Bowl

If you are reading this, you have most likely made the decision to fade me, and who could blame you.  I have yet to win a bowl game this season.  One thing I am noticing is that teams with coaches rumored to be moving to bigger positions have struggled(Wyoming and FIU).  Now we have TCU playing Louisiana Tech in the San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.  The Horned Frogs opened as a 12.5 point favorite which seemed a bit too high to me.  Now the line around town is at 9.5, which still seems a bit high.  I would love to see if it climbs back to 10 tomorrow, but will take the points either way.  The Bulldogs have been undervalued all season long, thus their 10-2 record ATS.  In this game, they have an opportunity to prove themselves on the national stage against a very well respected program that is going into the Big 12 next season.  For TCU, the motivation will be a bit harder to come by.  A team that played in the Rose Bowl last season against a Big Ten team, now must get up to play a WAC team.  They also probably dealt with a bit of a hangover from not climbing high enough in the BCS to play in one of those fraudulent games.  On paper these teams are relatively even, with TCU looking a bit better.  But as we are seeing in this years bowl games, that may not matter much.  I'm gonna ride the team with more motivation in this game, despite the rumors Sonny Dykes is moving on to Houston.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Rebound Week

No, the title of this post does not refer to the upcoming NBA season.  It is referring to my awful picks on the first three bowl games of this season.  Out of the 5 picks/leans I had in my last post, only one of them hit, and that was on a game ending field goal.  But there are still plenty of games and opportunities to make money, so no point in looking back except to learn from mistakes. 

First game this week is the Beef 'O Brady Bowl with Florida International taking on Marshall.  The Golden Panthers are currently a 4 point favorite and rightfully so.  They are the better team on paper and on the field.  Typically you would say C-USA is superior to the Sun Belt, and while that may be true, I don't think the gap is as wide as most people believe.  In fact, FIU played a C-USA team this year and came out on top, beating Central Florida 17 to 10.  This is the same UCF team that beat Marshall 16 to 6.  Now, comparing like opponents is no way to pick a game, but it at least provides a starting point.  Bottom line for me in this game is that the better team will also most likely be the more motivated team with a slight home field advantage.  I'll lay the 4 points all day in that situation.  As for the total, it has come down to 48 from the opening line of 51, but I like the OVER.  The speed of FIU on the turf will allow them to put points up and Marshall will be forced to score a few to keep it close.  The most interesting aspect of this "low tier" bowl game is that both of these teams beat Louisville at Louisville, one of the co-champs of the BCS status Big East Conference.  One more point that proves what a joke the post season for college football is. 

Florida International at Louisville Final 1 2 3 4 T Odds Bet Final FLINT 7 14 3 0 24 3 Cover: +10 LOU 0 10 0 7 17 48 Under: 41

Marshall at Louisville Final 1 2 3 4 T Odds Bet Final MARSH 7 0 3 7 17 11 Cover: +15 LOU 0 13 0 0 13 46 Under: 30

Stay tuned all week for my thoughts on the other games.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose. 

Bowl-A-Palooza

One of the most wonderful times of the sports year is upon us, bowl season.  A bunch of games that mean very little to the players, the schools' fanbase or the general public.  But for us bettors, it can be a very profitable time.  With just a little bit of work, we can find teams that care playing those that don't.  Teams with coaches trying to impress against teams with lame duck coaches.  There will also be huge mismatches where talent can carry a team to a cover.  So let's get this party started and find some winners. 

The first game of the 2011-2012 bowl season is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl, in which Temple takes on Wyoming.  As of right now, the Owls are a 7 point favorite.  A breakdown of both teams strengths and weaknesses seems to justify this spread.  But bowl games tend to be about much more than the numbers.  For me, there are quite a few factors in this game that are leading me to choose the underdog.  First and foremost among them is the quality of opponents on each teams schedule.  Wyoming plays in the Mountain West Conference while Temple is a member of the MAC.  The quality of teams from top to bottom in these two conferences isn't comparable as the MWC is vastly superior.  Add on top of that the fact Temple avoided playing the MAC champ, Northern Illinois, as well as another bowl bound team Western Michigan and they had some easy sledding in conference.  The bowl teams from the MAC they did play, Toledo and Ohio, both beat the Owls.  As for Wyoming, they did get wins against two bowl teams, Air Force and San Diego State, and both were on the road.  Another big factor to me is the location of this game, Albuquerque, New Mexico.  The Cowboys play a game on this field every other year thanks to conference play and won this bowl game two years ago, as a 10 point underdog.  That familiarity to their surroundings will help the players focus in a bit better than Temple.  Also being used to the altitude will benefit Wyoming as this game will be played at 5,100 feet above sea level.  Any homefield advantage will be the Cowboys given their proximity to the bowl site compared to Temple.  This game will be the furthest west the Owls have traveled in at least 6 years, with Minnesota being the closest trip which was in 2006.  Add all of this up and I expect a close game which makes taking the 7 points an easy call.  This is one game I am already down on, and the only one at the moment, but I'll give you my leanings in the others. 

The second game of the day is Ohio University against Utah State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.  The Bobcats enter this game after blowing a 20 point second half lead in the MAC Championship game.  I expect them to be a bit down and un-excited for this game.  As for Utah State, they are pumped to be in a bowl game as even their coach joined the fray by getting a tattoo for them making it in this year.  This is the schools first bowl game since 1997 and they should get quite a bump from the crowd.  I am expecting the Aggies to win by a touchdown and the game to get over the total of 60.

The final game tomorrow is Louisiana-Lafayette against San Diego State in the R&L Carries New Orleans Bowl.  This will be the Ragin' Cajuns first ever bowl appearance and they get it in their home state. While the Aztecs may have more talent, the Cajuns will have more energy and motivation.  Look for Louisiana to play well early, but as the game goes, San Diego State will prove to be too much.  I like the Aztecs to cover the 4 points as this game may fly over the total. 

Good luck and feel free to hit me up on twitter with any questions, you can find me at @vegasobie.  Remember, never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Easy Money

My apologies to my loyal readers, all 6 of you, for the recent hiatus.  The family and I went back to Ohio for a few days where my son had the great thrill of meeting and petting OBIE.  If you don't know, look it up.  But I am back in Vegas now and getting back into the mix by picking all of Saturday's action once again.  If you want to know what my actual money will be on, get on twitter and follow me, vegasobie is the handle.  This week because I am not being too lazy, I will actually give you a pick for Friday's game as well, enjoy!

Hawaii -5 at San Jose State, 56.5 I'm going with the boys from the Islands in this one.  Hawaii has had their off game for the year, here against UNLV, and I expect them to impress on national TV tonight.  And while I'm not a big trend bettor, one in this game jumped out at me.  Hawaii is 9-1 ATS in last 10 conference games and SJSU is 5-18 ATS in same situation.  The Spartans are improved this year, but Hawaii offense will prove to be too much which will also push the game OVER.

North Carolina -2.5 vs. Miami(FL), 52.5 I don't think Miami is that good of a football team this year.  Their 2 wins are against Ohio State and Bethune-Cookman, hardly an impressive resume this year.  They have also never won in Chapel Hill with the home team winning 10 of the last 11 in this series.  As long as this stays at 3 or under, I'm all over the Tar Heels.  Neither offense is dynamic so I also like the UNDER. 

Penn State -12 vs. Purdue, 41.5 Penn State has only allowed over 10 points in one game all year, and that was against Alabama.  Purdue will struggle to find the end zone in this game as they have only looked good against SE Missouri State and Minnesota.  The Nittany Lions certainly won't scare anyone with their offense, but at home will find enough points to cover but the game stays UNDER. 

Wisconsin -39.5 vs. Indiana, 60.5 Last year the Badgers scored 83 on the Hoosiers and could probably do the same this year if they choose too.  While I doubt they will get that many, Coach Bielema isn't one to call off the dogs often.  He knows in order to be considered for the BCS Championship game Wisconsin will have to roll teams.  This game will be a good tune up for the next two weeks at Michigan State and at Ohio State.  The Badgers also get the game to go OVER. 

Navy +3.5 at Rutgers, 53 Seems crazy liking Navy in this one after last week.  The Midshipmen were hammered by Southern Miss while Rutgers rolled over Pitt.  But I don't feel those games truly represent these teams and expect a tight game here so love the .5 point.  Both teams will put up some points so I also like OVER. 

Duke +12.5 vs. Florida State, 57.5 I don't expect the Seminoles to lose a 4th straight game, but they don't have the confidence in themselves at this point to cover this number.  Duke isn't horrible and should be able to limit the FSU offense enough to stay close and keep the game UNDER. 

Bowling Green +7.5 vs. Toledo, 59 This was a tough game to pick as the Rockets come in on a roll, crushing both of their opponents after the Syracuse debacle.  On the other side, the Falcons have been blown out the last two weeks on the road.  But I'm banking on the emotion of a rivalry game on homecoming weekend to aid BGSU in this game.  Both teams will score and this game should go OVER. 

Maryland +7.5 vs. Clemson, 53.5 This is normally the spot where Clemson reverts back to being Clemson and disappoints their fanbase.  I've always liked Clemson and their tradition, so hope I'm wrong.  The Terrapins get Clemson this week with a banged up quarterback and will do all they can to control the game with their offense.  I expect a tight game but also low scoring, so going with UNDER. 

Virginia Tech -6.5 at Wake Forest, 49 Everything seems to be pointing at Wake Forest in this game, but I'm gonna be a big time square here.  The Demon Deacons are coming off a home win over Florida State and only have one loss on the season.  The Hokies haven't covered a game since week #1 and that was against an FCS opponent.  But I think Tech just has more talent and will put it together this week, scoring enough to cover and push the total OVER. 

Virginia +7 vs. Georgia Tech, 55.5 I love the Yellow Jackets and Coach Johnson, but feel they are coming back to Earth a bit after an amazing start.  The Wahoos have had two weeks to prepare for the Tech offense and will be able to do enough to stay close and keep the total UNDER. 

South Carolina -3 at Mississippi State, 47 This is the ultimate case of addition by subtraction for the Gamecocks.  With the dismissal of Stephen Garcia from the team, South Carolina can move forward and leave the drama he brought behind them.  Not to mention the Bulldogs have been one of the most overrated teams this season, getting pumped up prior to the season simply because they are in the SEC West.  South Carolina will be balanced on offense and score enough to push the total OVER. 

Buffalo +21 at Temple, 47.5  The Owls are a much better team, but I just cant lay this many points with them.  Buffalo isn't horrible and will play enough defense to stay within the number and keep the total UNDER. 

Wyoming -10.5 vs. UNLV, 56 What a disaster, once again, the UNLV season is becoming.  Any momentum that could have been gained from the Hawaii win, cough cough, is long gone now.  The Rebels aren't good, but after the UNR game the last 5 years are even worse, going 0-5 ATS.  Also, under Coach Hauck, UNLV is 1-9 ATS on the road.  While Wyoming isn't a juggernaut program, they are good enough to handle the Rebels in this game with the total staying UNDER. 

Iowa State +15.5 vs. Missouri, 56 After back to back hammer jobs, the Cyclones now travel to Missouri.  On paper they shouldn't have much of a chance, but this is just the type of spot where Iowa State can sneak up on someone.  And even though the Tigers are also coming off a loss, they have Oklahoma State on deck so may not have total focus.  To stay in the game, Iowa State better bring some defense, so I like the UNDER. 

Eastern Michigan +12.5 at Central Michigan, 51.5 A good spot for EMU as they catch CMU a week after playing North Carolina State.  The Eagles are an improved team this year and will be able to stay close with the Chippewas in this one as the total goes OVER. 

Miami(OH) -3.5 at Kent State, 41 Both teams have 1 win on the season, but the Redhawks own Kent State over the years and pick up win number 2 in this game.  Both teams will score though and the total will go OVER. 

Western Michigan -1 at Northern Illinois, 69 Two of the top teams in the MAC meet in this game and there should be plenty of offense.  The Broncos should find just a bit more to win this game and take control of the race to win the MAC West.  But with both teams scoring, this game should easily go OVER. 

Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Utah, 46.5 This would have been a much bigger game for the Utes in past years, but now that they are in the PAC 12, playing a team from a BCS conference doesn't mean the same.  Add to that the game is a Noon EST start and the injuries Utah has at key positions, Pitt should win easily here.  With Utah being hard pressed to score I like this game UNDER. 

BYU +3 at Oregon State, 51 Considering Oregon State has only one win this year, and it was against the train wreck from Tucson, I cant lay points with the Beavers.  I also think the Cougars are improving each week and like them to win this game, but will happily take the points.  The game should also see some points and get OVER. 

Arizona State +14.5 at Oregon, 66.5 In one of the top games of the week, the Sun Devils catch the Ducks in their first game after star running back LaMichael James injury.  Even though Oregon has capable backups, the difference should be just enough to allow ASU to stay within 2 touchdowns.  Both teams will score as the total goes OVER. 

Baylor +8.5 at Texas A&M, 75.5 The Bears are good this year and the Aggies aren't good enough.  While Texas A&M has a great offense, they continually have lapses that allow teams to stay in games.  With Robert Griffin III leading the way, Baylor scores plenty of points to keep it close and push the game OVER. 

LSU -17 at Tennessee, 46 I really don't like this number, but with the injury to Tennessee's starting quarterback, I find it hard to believe the Volunteers will score many, if any, points.  The Tigers will reach the end zone enough times thanks to their defense to cover but the game will stay UNDER. 

Washington -15.5 vs. Colorado, 57.5 Here is another game where I'm not very comfortable laying the points, but the Buffaloes are so bad I can't take them.  The Huskies are getting better and better each week, and if they didn't have Stanford on deck next week, I would love them here.  My fear is they may look ahead but I don't think Colorado will take advantage.  The game will be an UNDER. 

Michigan +2.5 at Michigan State, 49 The Spartans have had two weeks to prepare for this game, so I expect a few wrinkles from them.  The problem is they need those wrinkles this year as their offense has been subpar.  With an improved defense coming out of Ann Arbor, the Wolverines should be able to control the game and get the win as the total stays UNDER.  

THEE Ohio State University +3.5 at Illinois, 45 The Buckeyes surprised me last week with their play at Nebraska, but when Braxton Miller went down with the injury the team lost all its confidence and energy.  He is playing this week and think he finds a way to lead THEE Ohio State University to the cover while the total stays UNDER. 

Auburn +2 vs. Florida, 50.5 The Gators come into Auburn after back to back losses to two of the top teams in the country.  They also come in with a third string quarterback.  Auburn is a much better team at home and will not lose this game.  The defenses will rule the day as the game goes UNDER.

Louisville +15 at Cincinnati, 48.5 This game is being played in Paul Brown Stadium, not Nippert Stadium, so the Bearcats lose some of their home field advantage.   While the Cardinals have some issues, they have looked good at times this year and will play well this week to get the cover.  Cincinnati's offense will struggle which will keep the total UNDER. 

Ball State +14.5 at Ohio, 57.5 The Bobcats are coming off an upset at Buffalo while Ball State looks to rebound after a thrashing from Temple.  Ohio is the better team, but winning by more than 2 touchdowns will be tough.  Both teams will score in this one so I like the OVER. 

UTEP +1.5 at Tulane, 57.5 This is a game between a couple of struggling teams, so even though it's only 1.5, I like getting points here.  I think the Miners defense shows up to keep the game tight and low scoring as the game stays UNDER. 

Mississippi +27 vs. Alabama, 44.5 Unlike a few other teams, Alabama controls their destiny thanks to the conference they are in.  This means they don't have to win impressively, but just win.  Bama will win comfortably but not score enough to cover this number as the game stays UNDER. 

Kansas +35 vs. Oklahoma, 72.5 While the Sooners are great, every year they have at least one game on the road where they don't meet expectations.  Oklahoma can win this game easily and still not cover such a big number.  If they win out, they should be in the Championship game so style points aren't that important.  Those factors allow Kansas to cover and the game to stay UNDER. 

New Mexico +29.5 at Nevada, 62 Nevada is coming off it's first home game of the season where it beat rival UNLV handily.  While New Mexico shouldn't pose a problem, winning by 30 may be just a bit too much.  Both teams will put up a few points so the game will go OVER. 

SMU -3.5 vs. Central Florida, 45.5 The Mustangs have been playing good football lately and will handle UCF in this game.  The Knights are a much better home team than road team and despite a good defense, will struggle to stop SMU in Dallas.  The game will also go OVER. 

Colorado State +32 vs. Boise State, 54.5 One think we know Boise won't do is run up the score in the second half.  This fact will allow the Rams to keep it just within the number as they lose by 4 touchdowns and the total goes OVER. 

Stanford -21 at Washington State, 63.5 Stanford is one team that finds itself in a position where impressions will matter.  They need to win and win big when possible.  The Cougars are much better this season, but Stanford will roll as the game goes OVER. 

Georgia -11 at Vanderbilt, 41 The Commodores looked great early in the season, but the SEC schedule is beginning to catch up to them.  At the same time, the Bulldogs are trending up after back to back losses to start the season.  Georgia will win and their defense will allow them to cover with the game going UNDER. 

Oklahoma State -7 at Texas, 64.5 The Cowboys are on a mission heading toward the showdown with Oklahoma.  After last week, the Longhorns will now begin to come back down to Earth after their great start.  Plenty of points from OSU in this game as the total goes OVER. 

Texas Tech -3.5 vs. Kansas State, 60.5 Tech is one team that KSU has struggled with over the years, and that will continue this season.  The Wildcats are a great story this year, but the unbeaten run ends in Lubbock as the Red Raiders score plenty to cover and push the total OVER. 

South Florida -7 at Connecticut, 46.5 I like the Bulls here for no other reason than the advantage in coaching.  Skip Holtz is light years ahead of Paul Pasqualoni and he has better talent.  I expect South Florida to win easily and the game to go OVER. 

East Carolina -14 at Memphis, 56 Memphis is awful and I cant pick them, even though ECU isn't very good either.  The Pirates find enough points to cover but the game will be UNDER. 

Marshall -4.5 vs. Rice, 51.5 The Thundering Herd have been pretty good this year, and I'm not impressed by Rice beating up on Memphis last week.  Playing in Huntington gives the Herd a big advantage as well.  They will cover and the game will go UNDER. 

Northwestern +6.5 at Iowa, 54.5 I love Pat Fitzgerald when his team is an underdog.  It didn't work out for them last week which makes me like them even more this week.  Won't be surprised if they win outright, but will take the points as the game goes UNDER. 

Idaho +1 at New Mexico State, 44.5 This is one awful game that I wouldn't watch if it was the only option.  Neither team is any good but the fact the Aggies are at home and only favored by 1 makes me like the Vandals.  Not too many points in this game as the total stays UNDER. 

Tulsa -21 vs. UAB, 58.5 The Golden Hurricane are coming off a bye and will be looking to explode in this game.  The Blazers hung in with Mississippi State last week, but the offense at Tulsa is much better.  The game will also go OVER. 

Fresno State +3 vs. Utah State, 64 While the Bulldogs haven't been great this year, they play well in this game and take care of the Aggies.  Utah State hasn't beaten a good team yet this season and will struggle with the Fresno defense as the game goes UNDER. 

North Texas +8.5 at Louisiana-Lafayette, 53.5 Not much was expected from the Ragin' Cajuns this season, but they find themselves at 3-0 in the conference and in control of their own destiny in a quest for their first bowl bid.  I think they find a way to beat the Mean Green but are unable to cover the spread and the game will go UNDER. 

Troy -8.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 56 Troy has been disappointing this season and will be trying to bounce back from a loss last week.  At home they get the job done and cover as the game goes UNDER. 

Western Kentucky +2.5 at Florida Atlantic, 43.5 The Hilltoppers are an improving team and program and find a way to not only cover this game but win it outright as the total goes OVER.

So there it is, the winning pick for every game and total in college football for this weekend.  Be sure to get on twitter and follow me, vegasobie, to see which games are also getting my money.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford. 

Kids Will Be Kids

This past Saturday I heard numerous people picking Utah to cover against Washington because they would be amped up for their first home Pac12 game.  On the surface, sounds good.  But upon further review, this is a terrible theory.  I am not only saying this in hindsight either, as I picked Washington to cover.  The problem with the theory is that the players at Utah don't really care about being in the Pac12.  That is more important to the alumni and administration.  What 18-22 year old kids care about is just playing.  The only thing that will amp them up anymore is the name on the jersey across from them, and Washington isn't one of those programs.  Through the 80's and into the early 90's the Huskies were a top tier program, but players today most likely have no idea who Don James or Steve Etman are.  So that got me to thinking, what schools today do get the juices flowing for their opponents more than normal.  The list was shorter than what I originally thought.  From the Pac12 there are only three, USC, Oregon and Stanford.  USC would need to go on at least a 10 year bad run to fall off.  Stanford will be off as soon as Andrew Luck leaves school and Oregon seems poised to be on for awhile with Nike money behind them.  In the Big12, only Oklahoma and Texas make my list.  Oklahoma State almost made the list, but without the hype around their top stars like Luck has, they fall just short.  From the Big Ten, Nebraska, Michigan, Penn State and THEE Ohio State University will always be on the list.  They are currently joined by Wisconsin, but they could easily fall off.  From the SEC there is Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee.  The first 5 are safely on, but the Volunteers are very close to coming off.  Dooley seems to have them pointing up, but if things fall apart on him they slip off this list.  From the ACC there is only Florida State, Miami(FL) and Virginia Tech.  Tech wouldn't be here if not for Michael Vick and the credibility he gives the school in the eyes of younger players.  Clemson is very close, especially with their play this year, but let's wait to make sure they don't choke away another great season.  Nobody from the Big East is on the list.  As for independents, Notre Dame will always be on the list, even if the play on the field doesn't live up to the hype.  Keep this information in mind as you handicap games the remainder of the season. 

Speaking of handicapping, we went 2-1 on Saturday, winning with Air Force and Northwestern while losing with Colorado.  Tonight I am on the Buccaneers, but got them early in the week at -8.5.  It seems to be as high as 10 in places now, which makes it a bit tougher, but I still like them.  Hard for me to see the Colts matching last weeks performance.  I think they put everything they had into that game and still came up short.  For more picks from me, follow on twitter, handle is vegasobie.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose. 

More Like It

The first week of picking every game, both side and total, saw me hit 53%.  That isn't a profit making percentage, but picking that many games it is pretty good.  Of course, and I'll keep emphasizing this, one should never actually bet that many games, and I don't.  This is simply being done as an exercise.  The problem with that 53% last week was that I only went 2-3 with the ones I bet and that is not good.  But we tried again this week and the results were much more like I anticipated.  Overall I went 41-51 which is 44.5% accuracy.  The good news is that my actual bets went 4-1, and that is a money making weekend.  And 6-4 for the two weeks is respectable as well.  This week I have taken the time to breakdown my picks by conference to see where I was strongest or weakest.  I'll make an effort to do this again for week 5 of college football, as long as my real job allows.  Here is the breakdown by conference, first numbers are the side and the second numbers are the totals.  Also, if a game was between teams from the same conference, it only counted one time.   

ACC: 4-3, 3-4
Big 12: 2-3, 2-3
Big East: 4-2, 1-5
Big Ten: 4-4, 3-5
C-USA: 4-4, 1-7
Independents: 1-1, 0-2
MAC: 8-1, 5-4
MWC: 1-3, 1-3
PAC 12: 2-3, 1-4
SEC: 5-2, 2-5
Sun Belt: 2-3, 3-2
WAC: 2-3, 2-3

Wouldn't be too hard to figure out I graduated from a MAC school, would it?  Anyway, back to the present and Monday Night Football is on tonight, with the Redskins visiting the Cowboys.  I haven't looked at the number recently, but I am on Washington and got it at +6.5.  I think the Redskins defense is good enough to bother Romo and possibly not allow him to finish the game.  That would give the edge to Washington as they could pull off the SU win.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose. 

Trying Again

Last week I actually made a pick on every college game between 2 FBS teams, both the side and total.  At just over 53% it wasn't a total train wreck but it also wouldn't have been profitable.  Now, I'm obviously not actually betting all these games because that would be insane.  The games I actually bet went 2-3, so that's not good.  So here we are, running the experiment for a second straight week.  After giving you all my choices, I'll let you know which ones I'm actually betting. 

Colorado +16.5 at THEE Ohio State University, 46.5 I'll be taking the Buffaloes in this game.  The number just seems a bit too high for OSU to cover.  They will be starting their freshman quarterback for the first time this season, but I don't think it will matter.  The offense out of Columbus is very lackluster and Colorado should score just enough to cover the spread while keeping the total UNDER. 

Tulane +10 at Duke, 56 This is certainly not a marquee matchup, but interesting to me since I won taking both of these teams last week.  Duke's offense hasn't been as good as advertised this season but the defense has been pretty good.  Tulane hammered UAB last week on the road and should be able to keep this game close.  I am also looking at the game going UNDER. 

Syracuse -2 vs. Toledo, 52.5 Toledo seems to be everyone's pick as they covered in Columbus and were somewhat respectable against Boise State.  But OSU isn't a very good team and in both games Toledo made mistakes that repeatedly cost them points.  I don't see that changing and expect Syracuse to win this game by 3 to 6 points with the total staying UNDER. 

East Carolina -14 vs. UAB, 62.5 Last week UAB lost at home to Tulane by 39 points as a 12.5 point favorite.  Now they have to play on the road against a team that had a bye last week.  ECU is 2-0 ATS this year but both times were big underdogs.  Now as a big favorite it will be interesting to see if the Pirates continue to exceed expectations.  I expect they will and the total to go OVER. 

UTEP +29.5 at South Florida, 48.5 Two good defenses here and one good offense.  I am sure the spread will tell you which team has the good offense.  That being said, the Miners defense should limit the Bulls just enough to keep the game within 4 touchdowns and keep the total UNDER.

Western Michigan +13.5 at Illinois, 52.5 This game smells like a Ron Zook classic.  Coming off a big win over Arizona State, I think Illinois will have their hands full with the Broncos offense.  Plenty of points on the scoreboard in this game with WMU possibly winning straight up.  But I'll take those points and the OVER. 

Rutgers -4 vs Ohio, 50.5 The Scarlet Knights have played pretty well in their first two games, going 2-0 ATS.  The Bobcats have been very good this season and are coming off a 44-7 pasting of Marshall.  But if history tells us anything, MAC teams are not usually as good as we think.  I'll take Rutgers with an extra week to rest and prepare with the total staying UNDER. 

Eastern Michigan +28.5 at Penn State, 46 EMU played at Michigan last week and only allowed the Wolverines 31 points.  Michigan's offense is light years ahead of PSU, so I don't see how the Nittany Lions cover this spread.  The Eagles will control the ball just enough to keep within the number and see the total go UNDER. 

Kansas State +12.5 at Miami(FL), 47.5 Combined last week both teams gave up 6 points.  While Miami faced slightly tougher competition in OSU, this game should be low scoring.  The atmosphere for a day game in Miami will be vastly different than the night game last week.  A small emotional drop from the Hurricanes will allow the Wildcats to stay close with the total staying UNDER. 

SMU -23.5 at Memphis, 54.5 Memphis is in contention to be the worst team in FBS as they battle for that title with Akron.  Until they show me different, I will be picking against them.  The total should go OVER.

Temple +8.5 at Maryland, 52.5 Both teams lost tight, emotionally charged games last week.  But one thing that tends to carry over from week to week is defense, and the Owls have an edge there.  They should be able to limit the Terrapins enough to keep it within one touchdown and keep the game UNDER. 

Michigan State -21.5 vs. Central Michigan, 49.5 CMU got blown out by their rival Western Michigan last week while MSU was getting beat soundly by Notre Dame.  That should help the Spartans focus for this game and run wild over the Chippewas.  Michigan State will cover and see the game go OVER. 

Georgia -10 at Mississippi, 53.5 I can't possibly bring myself to back a team that got blown out by Vanderbilt.  I recognize that teams can be flat or be looking ahead, but that was still a conference game.  Georgia basically had a bye last week, playing Coastal Carolina.  I expect the Bulldogs to score early and often as the game gets OVER. 

Bowling Green +3.5 at Miami(OH), 53 I am jinxing myself here, but I've picked every game for the Falcons correctly this year.  Both teams are coming off of close losses last week, but in this series, no matter the players or the coaches, the visiting team seems to have an edge.  I'll take the points but expect BGSU to win straight up while putting up enough points for the game to get OVER. 

Ball State +4 vs. Army, 50.5 This line feels a bit off to me.  Perhaps it is a bit high because Army is coming off the win over Northwestern, but these teams are pretty even and Ball State is at home.  I'll take the points in what should be a low scoring, tight game.  I'll also take the UNDER. 

Virginia Tech -20.5 at Marshall, 47 This is a tough spot for the Hokies.  This is game 4 of an underwhelming non-conference schedule with Clemson on deck.  The game is also in Huntington, which isn't usually easy for visitors.  But I'm backing Frank Beamer here as I expect him to have his team ready to fire on all cylinders after back to back lackluster performances.  I also like the game OVER. 

Alabama -11 vs. Arkansas, 50.5 As the debate rages on about which defense is better, Bama or LSU, the Crimson Tide get a shot to send a message early on Saturday.  With injuries hitting the Razorbacks hard, Alabama should control this game from start to finish and cover easily with the game staying UNDER.

Washington -1 vs. Cal, 58.5 Cal tends to play much better at home, but this game is in Seattle.  The Huskies scored plenty of points against Nebraska last week, so that shouldn't be a problem.  This is a conference game though, so I expect things to be a bit tighter and more physical with Washington getting the cover and the game going UNDER.  

LSU -5.5 at West Virginia, 48  The Mountaineers will be fired up for this game, especially now that it is the prime time game for the week.  But LSU is used to these situations and will be able to handle the pressure much better than either WVU or their first year head coach.  LSU will handle this game with relative ease and keep the total UNDER. 

San Diego State +10 at Michigan, 57 Normally, I go against west coast teams playing in the noon EST time slot, but this will be the Aztecs second time this year doing it, so they should be able to handle it a bit better.  They also have the type of balanced offense that should be able to keep the game close.  Both teams should get points to push the game OVER. 

Georgia Tech -6.5 vs North Carolina, 58 The Yellow Jackets offense is rolling right now, having scored 63, 49 and 66 points in their three games.  While this UNC defense will be the best they have seen so far this year, they should still score enough to cover and push the game OVER. 

Florida -19.5 at Kentucky, 44 Florida has been good but not great this season.  Last week against Tennessee they should have won much bigger, but defensive pass interference penalties aided the Volunteers.  Kentucky will not be able to put that type of pressure on the Gators defense and I expect Florida to hammer the Wildcats.  The game will also go OVER. 

Notre Dame -7 at Pittsburgh, 55 While I'm not a fan of the Irish, they seem to be improving slightly from week to week.  Pitt doesn't get much of a home field advantage and Notre Dame always has plenty of fans for their road games in the east.  If Iowa could get points against the Panthers, I see no reason the Irish won't.  I like Notre Dame this week along with the OVER. 

Clemson -2.5 vs. Florida State, 48 Both teams come off of emotional games from the previous week, but Clemson is riding high with a win in that game.  Florida State not only lost the game, but may have lost their quarterback for this game.  I expect a tight, low scoring game with Clemson winning by about a touchdown.  The total will also be UNDER. 

San Jose State -10.5 vs New Mexico State, 46.5 I'm sure this game is high on everyones radar for Saturday.  Neither team is very good, but I think the Aggies are worse, especially going to San Jose.  Yes, I know NMSU won at Minnesota this year, but they also lost at home to UTEP only scoring 10 points.  They won't score many more than that on the Spartans as SJSU covers with the game going UNDER. 

Fresno State -3 at Idaho, 52 The Vandals burned me last week, but I still cant back a team that lost at home to Bowling Green.  Obviously, playing in Moscow isn't a huge advantage, so I'll take the Bulldogs along with the UNDER. 

Buffalo +9 vs. UCONN, 46 No dynamic offenses here, so please give me 9 points.  This game should be low scoring and it won't surprise me if Buffalo wins outright.  I also like the game UNDER. 

Oregon State -4.5 vs UCLA, 52 The Bruins seem to have no direction and Neuheisel is firmly on the hot seat.  I don't like taking a winless team as a favorite, but that won't stop me.  I also think both teams score enough to push the total OVER. 

Texas Tech -15.5 vs Nevada, 61 I said it last week and will continue to say it, the Wolfpack are nowhere near the same team without Colin Kapernick.  The Red Raiders should roll in this game since it is only Kansas on deck for next week.  The game also should go OVER. 

Vanderbilt +15.5 at South Carolina, 49 The Commodores are 3-0 this season and playing good football.  With new coach Tony Franklin there seems to be some excitement around the program.  Look for them to sneak up on the Gamecocks and keep the game close as well as UNDER. 

Louisiana Tech +19.5 at Mississippi State, 59 MSU has had plenty of time to stew and regroup after being handled by the LSU defense.  They will score quite a few but I expect Tech to score just enough to keep it within the spread.  This game will go OVER. 

Baylor -20 vs. Rice, 66.5 Baylor's offense has been explosive this season, led by Robert Griffin III.  They will score plenty of points to cover but Rice will not help out so the game stays UNDER. 

Virginia -3 vs Southern Miss, 52 I am a big fan of Mike London at Virginia, and even though the Cavaliers let me down last week, I am on them again this week.  Southern Miss has not played well this year against any serious competition.  Both teams score but Virginia scores enough to cover with the total going OVER.

Texas A&M -4.5 vs. Oklahoma State, 68 This should be a very exciting game with two high scoring offenses.  The edge for me in this game is home field and a slightly better defense with the Aggies.  Those two things combine to allow A&M to cover but the total will still go OVER.   

Wyoming +21 vs. Nebraska, 57.5 Not a good spot for the Cornhuskers.  After playing a game against PAC-12 Washington last week they take to the road for a game in Laramie.  Never an easy place to play, Nebraska also has a game at Wisconsin on deck for next week.  On top of that, Nebraska is 0-3 ATS this season and I expect that stat to go to 0-4.  The Cowboys score enough points to cover as the game goes OVER. 

Oklahoma -19.5 vs. Missouri, 57 In what could be a let down spot for the Sooners after the game at Tallahassee, they welcome the team that gave them their first loss last season into Norman.  Oklahoma will be looking to send a message in their first Big 12 game of the year and rolls the Tigers.  The game will also go OVER. 

Utah State -10.5 vs. Colorado State, 56 CSU is coming off a game against their in state rival Colorado and now has to travel to Utah State.  The Aggies have been very good this year and will look to make an impression on homecoming weekend.  I'm laying the points and taking the OVER. 

Tulsa +28 at Boise State, 63 This pick is being made based on the information that Tulsa's starting quarterback will be playing.  With Kinne in the lineup I think Tulsa can score enough points to keep it within 4 touchdowns but the game will still go OVER. 

Oregon -14.5 at Arizona, 65.5 The Ducks are on a mission after losing that opening game, and will not take it easy on anyone.  The Wildcats are in trouble and Stoops may be lucky to make it through the year.  Oregon scores enough to cover and not to get the game over, so go UNDER. 

USC +2.5 at Arizona State, 53.5 The Trojans finally looked like they are starting to click with the easy win over Syracuse last week.  Even though they are playing a lot of sophomores and freshmen in a big road game, I think they win this game.  There won't be a ton of points scored so I like the UNDER. 

Auburn -31.5 vs Florida Atlantic, 58 The Owls didn't score against Michigan State and didn't even get  50 yards of offense.  Now they go against Auburn coming off its first loss in 18 games.  I'm glad I don't play for the Florida Atlantic offense.  Auburn rolls with the pressure of the win streak gone and the game gets OVER. 

Iowa -17 vs Louisiana Monroe, 50 The Hawkeyes will be riding some positive momentum after the comeback win over Pitt last week.  They tune up for Big Ten play with an easy over the Warhawks as the game also goes OVER. 

Troy -12 vs. Middle Tennessee State, 64 Troy has owned MTSU in recent years and that shouldn't end in this game.  I like the Trojans and the OVER. 

Indiana -6 at North Texas.  I realize the Hoosiers lost to Ball State, but only laying 6 against North Texas???  Perhaps I'm not very smart, but I think Indiana wins easily and the game goes OVER.

Louisiana Lafayette +17 vs Florida International, 50.5 The Golden Panthers are riding high after back to back wins over Louisville and Central Florida, so I expect a small letdown as they return to Sun Belt action this week.  They still win the game, but don't get the cover as the game goes OVER. 

So there you have it, my choices on every FBS game this weekend.  As for what I'm betting, here ya go.  I like Michigan State -21.5, Western Michigan +13.5, LSU -5.5, Buffalo +9 and Baylor -20.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose. 

Not A Total Failure

For those that read last Friday's post, you will remember that I picked both the side and total in every college football game between two FBS teams.  While the results weren't great, they also weren't terrible.  We ended the weekend with an overall record of 50-42-2.  That's a winning percentage of just over 53%.  That may not sound as bad to inexperienced bettors as experienced bettors, but never forget you have to pay the juice.  Thanks to that juice, to turn a profit you need to be over 54%.  All in all, I'm comfortable with the results and will do it again this weekend, so stay tuned.  Breaking the numbers down a bit, we were 21-25-1 picking the sides and 29-17-1 picking totals.  This certainly tells us where improvement is needed.  The really bad news though is the game I liked to bet myself went 2-3.  That must improve since I don't have the bankroll to bet every game.  Anyone out there looking for investment opportunities?? 

So we already reviewed last week, let's get to a pick for tonights Monday night game.  The Rams are playing in New York against the Giants.  Neither team looked very good last Sunday and both are beat up.  For me this game is more about motivation and I feel the Rams with their coach will have more.  He will be pulling out all the stops on defense to impress his former employer.  As of now, St. Louis is getting 7 points and that should be more than enough.  Remember to follow on twitter, vegasobie, and never bet what you cant afford to lose!

An Experiment Doomed for Failure

Week 3 of college football is upon us, and the season is already producing some intriguing storylines.  This week has the potential to shape the race for the title as #1 Oklahoma travels to Tallahassee and play #5 Florida State.  There are plenty of other great games as well, with THEE Ohio State University playing Miami(FL), Auburn going into Clemson and Michigan State playing Notre Dame.  What a wonderful Saturday we shall have.  I've been picking pretty well this season, going a combined 14-7 last week with college and pro games.  Knowing how hard it is to pick winners and my own history, that rate cant continue.  But I thought now may be the best time to pick every game between FBS teams this weekend...all 47 of them.  Now, obviously I realize this is a horrible idea and I would never actually bet this many games.  I will be sure to let you know which of these picks I will actually be betting.  Either way, this could be fun...no one can turn away from a train wreck.  Oh...and for good measure I'll pick the over/under too.

Iowa State +4 at UCONN, 44.5  I'm not a huge fan of the Cyclones, but in this matchup I actually believe they are better coached and have the better quarterback, so give me the points along with the OVER.

Boise State -20 at Toledo, 59.5 The Glass Bowl can be a tough place for teams to go into and get the win, but this Boise team is awesome.  I also believe the performance of the Rockets at THEE Ohio State University last Saturday will get the Broncos full attention.  I will be betting the OVER in this game as I expect Toledo to find the end zone a few times but Boise wins comfortably producing alot of points.

West Virginia +1 at Maryland, 57.5 Making this pick with the belief the Mountaineers team from the second half last week will show up.  Also, even though Maryland won and covered against Miami(FL), they were not very impressive versus that depleted roster.  I will be betting the OVER as both teams will score.

Auburn +3.5 at Clemson, 60.5 This was a great game last season in Auburn where War Eagle pulled out the win in overtime.  I'm not sold on this years Auburn squad, but until they get beat, I'll take points with them everytime.  I also lean toward the OVER since both teams seem to enjoy allowing other teams to score.

Pittsburgh +3 at Iowa, 50.5 I am not impressed by either of these teams, but the whole world seems to be on Iowa, and that scares me.  There is very solid reasoning for that choice, however that is a red flag for me, so I'll take the points along with the UNDER.

Cincinnati -34 vs. Akron, 56.5 This is the first home team I am taking, but I'm picking UC more based on the opponent than the Bearcats themselves.  The Zips are fighting it out to be the worst team in FBS this season with Memphis, UNLV and Florida Atlantic.  UC can name their score, and I'm thinking they will coming off the loss to Tennessee.  I'll also take the OVER thinking UC gets it on their own. 

Wyoming +9.5 at Bowling Green, 54.5 This was tough for me, being a BGSU alum, but it is in my head that everytime BG starts to show positive signs and is a favorite, they fail miserably.  I also think this is the best defense the Falcons have seen so far this season so will also take the UNDER. 

Michigan -28.5 vs Eastern Michigan, 61 The Wolverines are riding high with a new coach and great comeback win over Notre Dame.  They will score plenty of points here to cover but I'll also take the UNDER as the Eagles will have trouble finishing in the end zone. 

Penn State -7 at Temple, 46 Temple is hosting Penn State but I find it hard to believe the crowd will be totally in their corner.  This should be a very good game, but in the end I look for the Nittany Lions to get the cover while the game stays UNDER.

Central Michigan +7.5 at Western Michigan, 54 This should be a highly competitive game, so I'll take the touchdown plus.  CMU has also won 5 straight in this series, so any psychological edge goes their way.  Both teams will put points up though, so I like the OVER.

Vanderbilt +2.5 vs Mississippi, 47 Vandy is off to a 2-0 start and actually has a pretty good recent history with the Rebels.  As the home team and getting points, I love them here along with the game staying UNDER.

Duke +7 at Boston College, 47.5 This looks like an awful game on paper with both teams 0-2, and I'm expecting it to be awful on the field too.  The Eagles offense is awful right now and Duke's is not much better.  I expect a low scoring game to stay UNDER 47.5 so I'll also take the 7 points.

Kansas +14.5 at Georgia Tech, 62 Kansas pulled the upset on Tech last year at home, so this could be a revenge game for the Yellow Jackets.  While they should get the win, I think it stays within two touchdowns but it will also go OVER the total. 

Colorado State +7 vs Colorado, 50.5 This game is a neutral field game being played in Denver.  Colorado State has played well this year and I think in this rivalry game 7 is just too many this season.  The game will be UNDER as well. 

Northern Illinois +16.5 vs Wisconsin, 64.5 Another neutral field game, with this one being played in Chicago.  The Huskies new coach this year comes from Wisconsin, where he was the defensive coordinator the last 3 years.  If anyone is familiar with the Badgers personnel, it will be him.  UNI tries to pound the ball with the run game and control the clock, so I like the Huskies and the UNDER.

Miami(OH) +5 at Minnesota, 46.5 Miami is actually a very good MAC team and is quite familiar with the system Minnesota now runs with former MAC coach Kill at the helm.  The Gophers should be motivated after losing at home to New Mexico State last week along with dealing with their coach's health issues this week.  I still think the Redhawks win this game and the total stays UNDER. 

Tennessee +10 at Florida, 51 The Volunteers looked very good against Cincinnati last week while this will be a big step up in competition for Florida.  The quarterback play for Tennessee will be enough to keep them in this game while both teams score and the game goes OVER.

Michigan State +5 at Notre Dame, 51.5 Until Notre Dame actually plays a good game I won't believe they are a good team.  I will happily take the 5 points with the Spartans and I look for their defense to do very well as the total stays UNDER.

Virginia +10.5 vs North Carolina, 48 UVA has won 10 of 13 in this series while UNC hasn't won back to back since the early 80's.  On top of that, the Cavaliers are in the second year with Coach London and get the Heels at home.  This should be a low scoring game and 10.5 is way too much.  I like Virginia enough that I will bet them myself.  I also like the UNDER. 

Texas -3.5 at UCLA, 44 Neither offense here is dynamic, but there seems to be more excitement in Austin as they turn to their young talent.  A late score will give the Longhorns the cover as the game stays UNDER.

Nebraska -17 vs. Washington, 55 I keep hearing the play here is Washington, but I think the Huskers look to send a message in their last big game before Big Ten play.  They score early and often as they cover and take the total OVER. 

Texas Tech -20.5 at New Mexico, 54.5 New Mexico is awful and this game shouldn't be close.  In fact, the Red Raiders may push the total OVER themselves. 

Northwestern -5 at Army, 54.5 The Wildcats look very good this year and should win this game by a touchdown but the total will stay UNDER. 

San Jose State +6 vs Nevada, 54 This is a situation where until Nevada proves something without Kapernick at quarterback, I'm not buying.  That also leads me to lean toward the UNDER.

Tulane +13 at UAB, 54 Two middle of the pack C-USA teams here but I think they are more evenly matched up than the oddsmakers.  I like taking the points here along with the UNDER. 

Navy +16.5 at South Carolina, 57.5 I think it's gonna be tough for the Gamecocks to shut down Navy coming off the emotional and physical game with Georgia.  Great athletes for South Carolina on the defensive front but Navy will test their discipline.  I like the points and the game to go OVER. 

Washington State +5.5 at San Diego State, 57 The Cougars are putting up some points, and even though this is a step up in competition and on the road, I think they keep scoring and win the game.  Both teams will score so I also like the OVER. 

Kentucky -4.5 vs. Louisville, 41Combined these teams have played 8 halves of football and the only time either looked decent was Kentucky in the second half last week.  I think that carries over and the Wildcats find a way to cover in an ugly game that creeps OVER. 

Houston -6.5 at Louisiana Tech, 70.5 This may be the final chance to get the Cougars before everyone jumps on board with Case Keenum being back.  Tech won't score much though so I like it UNDER. 

Ohio -4 vs. Marshall, 49 These teams are pretty evenly matched up, but the Bobcats at home are pretty tough to beat.  Defense will rule the day however as it stays UNDER. 

Texas A&M -35.5 vs. Idaho, 60 This is a huge number to cover, but any team that loses at home to Bowling Green will not get my money.  It should also fly OVER. 

Ball State -4.5 vs Buffalo, 52.5 I really like the Cardinals here, especially at home.  So much so that I'm playing them myself.  I also think it stays UNDER. 

Arizona State +2 at Illinois, 57 The offenses will do well in this game, but I don't believe in Ron Zook.  I was also impressed by the Sun Devils on the road at Wisconsin last year, so I'll take them here along with OVER.

Kansas State -17.5 vs Kent State, 46 I expect the Wildcats offense to show much more this game than they have to this point in the season.  Also, Kent State is pretty awful and has a first year head coach.  I also like the OVER. 

USC -15 vs Syracuse, 49 This is a game where I'm trusting my gut, and it is saying the USC offense explodes.  The Trojans should win comfortably and the game will go OVER. 

Florida State +3 vs Oklahoma, 54.5 I really hope this game is as exciting as I think it will be.  In the end, with lots of points scored, I think home field keeps the 'Noles in the game.  Give me Florida State and the OVER. 

New Mexico State -3 vs. UTEP, 47 A couple pretty bad teams here, but I feel the win at Minnesota gives the Aggies some momentum.  I'll lay the points and I like it to stay UNDER. 

Miami(FL) -2.5 vs. THEE Ohio State University, 46 In a game where defense should dominate, Miami scores just enough to cover.  It will also stay UNDER. 

Utah +3.5 at BYU, 46.5 This is possibly the most underrated rivalry in college football.  These schools hate one another and the game is always close.  With that being the case, I'll take the points along with the UNDER. 

Oklahoma State -13.5 at Tulsa, 68 The Cowboys offense is awesome.  They will not slow down at Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane will put up a few points as well.  OSU gets the cover, but I am betting the OVER myself. 

Hawaii -17.5 at UNLV, 59.5 This line was 20.5 here in Vegas during the week and I have no idea why it is coming down.  I cannot see a way the Rebels keep it close and will be betting Hawaii myself.  It should also easily go OVER. 

Stanford -8.5 at Arizona, 55.5 Arizona was quite unimpressive at Oklahoma State and it looks to me like Stanford is very motivated this year.  With Luck coming back, the entire teams seems intent on doing what it needs to for him to win the Heisman.  I also think the game gets OVER. 

TCU -29.5 vs Louisiana-Monroe, 52.5 The Horned Frogs finally get a home game and they will roll in this one.  In fact, I think they get the OVER on their own. 

Arkansas State +24 at Virginia Tech, 53 Tech wins this game comfortably, but 24 just feels like too much to me.  I think ASU gets a few points on the board which will also push the game OVER. 

Central Florida -5.5 at Florida International, 50.5 UCF is a very good team with a great defense.  They won't allow T.Y. Hilton to go crazy like Louisville did last week.  It also stays UNDER.

North Texas +47 at Alabama, 55 This may be the best time for the Mean Green to catch Bama, between games with Penn State and Arkansas.  Bama wins easy but not by more than 47 as the game stays UNDER. 

Arkansas -23 vs Troy, 63 The Razorbacks are trying to send a message with every game that they were more than Ryan Mallet last season.  They score a ton in this one and win easily pushing the total OVER. 

So there it is, for what it's worth.  Come back Monday when I'll assess the damage.   Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.

Cheering For Anarchy

Now that college football season is back, it's time for me to embrace my love/hate relationship with the game.  There isn't a much more exciting time than checking the channel guide on a Saturday morning to find all the games I want to follow for the day.  I've evolved over the years to being a fan of the game more than a fan of any one team.  Sure, I love to see my alma mater, Bowling Green State University, do well.  I was also paid by Michigan State University for a time so it's hard not to enjoy when they do well.  But overall, I just enjoy the drama and big time atmospheres that college football can produce.  Of course, not all that drama is positive.  My biggest problem with college football is that roughly 50 teams have ZERO chance of winning the national championship before the season starts.  If you are a member of the Sun Belt, MAC, WAC, Conference USA or Mountain West, you are playing for a conference title and perhaps a better bowl than the normal year.  But that's it.  No matter what teams from these conferences do, they will not be able to play for a national title.  And yes, that applies to Boise State.  I can see how this year will turn out already.  The Broncos got a very big win over Georgia, in Atlanta, but unless the Bulldogs go on to win the SEC East, it will mean very little.  Other than the quarterback, Murray, I didn't see a whole lot from UGA to make me think that's a possibility, so I have little doubt the ESPN pundits are already writing their take aways on how Boise got a weak SEC team from the weaker division.  Add on to that the fact TCU lost to Baylor, and beating the Horned Frogs this year won't do anything to truly help Boise State.  The Broncos will most likely finish the year undefeated, but a one loss LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, Wisconsin or one of numerous other teams from the BCS conferences will finish ahead of Boise.  The shame of this is that Boise may be the best team in the country.  They have the best quarterback and despite the constant questions of their depth, they continually reload every year and continue beating anyone that will play them.  So my hope for the season is that Boise finishes with no losses, cause I love to hear the excuses on why they don't belong.  Just stop telling the word that college football already has a playoff, and one loss ends your season.  The only team already in that situation is Boise, and they keep getting reminded they are lucky to have that chance. 

We went 3-2 the first weekend of college football season.  It looked like we were on our way to 4-2, but bad weather forced an early end to the WVU-Marshall game.  No guarantee we would have gotten the over, but with nearly all the 4th quarter left we only needed one touchdown to secure the push.  No matter, 3-2 isn't a bad start and there is one game left tonight.  Miami is heading north to play Maryland and are going without 8 players that are suspended for their roles in off the field issues.  That has caused the line to move to Maryland -4.  All the hype is always around all the talent Miami has and the suspensions won't hurt too much cause of their depth.  But the fact is, with that talent they have barely been above average the last few years.  The new coach, Al Golden, was to fix that, but he has been a bit distracted.  Meanwhile, Maryland has a new coach as well, Randy Edsall, and they also have back a very good quarterback Danny O'Brien.  I look for Maryland to get up early, creating a few turnovers, and Miami to not be able to bounce back.  Maryland should win comfortably and I'm laying the 4 points.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.

Don't Bite The Hand

Recently, Arian Foster of the Houston Texans tweaked a hamstring during a pre-season game.  On the surface, not too big of a deal unless you are a die hard Texans fan.  But considering the year Foster had last year and the fact that fantasy football is over a billion dollar business, the injury becomes a much bigger issue.  Foster took to his twitter account to call out the people that play fantasy football and were questioning how long he may be out with the injury.  In fact, he called them "sick".  And he is absolutely right.  His point that people only care about others when it affects them is dead on.  I don't follow Foster on twitter but in looking at many of his tweets, he seems to be a very thoughtful individual.  He comes across as a deep thinker with a very good grasp on the big picture.  That's why his tweet calling out fantasy players surprised me.

Even though I agree with Foster's points on this issue, it was probably something best kept to himself.  When you have chosen to be in a profession that pays you millions of dollars and gives you the platform where people will pay attention to what you say, it may be wise to not offend the people that provide that living.  Gambling on football in this country is a multi billion dollar industry.  And don't fool yourself, fantasy football is just another version of betting on football.  The NFL can try to distance itself in public from gambling as much as it wants, but without it the league would be nowhere near as popular as it currently is.  The NFL makes its money from television deals.  Networks are willing to fork over the huge dollars because they know people will tune in every week like clockwork.  But what the NFL and the networks don't like to talk about is the real reason most of those people tune in; gambling.  With games once a week, football is the perfect partner for sports bettors and fantasy players alike.  It doesn't require daily attention, though most people will give it some thought daily while surfing sports sites for info, and the games basically all start and end at the same time every week.  This allows for the average Joe to plan accordingly and the ability to sit in front of his tv to watch the games and players he has "bet" on.  So Mr. Foster, yes, people are sick.  But if not for these sick people, it is highly unlikely you would be making the dollars you are and it is an almost certainty that you wouldn't have nearly 70,000 followers on twitter to share your deep insights with.  Be careful biting the hand that feeds you. 

Now that football is here, finally, we can get away from picking baseball.  I'll be sure to give some insight once post season is here, but until then we'll keep our focus on football.  If you follow me on twitter, which I'm pretty sure you don't, you would have had my two winners last night, UNLV +35 and Bowling Green +6.  I actually liked the Falcons on the money line and that won as well.  So we are off to a good start at 2-0 and I have another winner tonight with TCU.  The Horned Frogs are laying 3.5 against Baylor and I am expecting a relatively easy cover.  Be sure to get on twitter and follow me for daily winners, @vegasobie is my handle.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.

Welcome T-Home

Today's post will be Cleveland-centric, so deal with it.  I was born and raised in NE Ohio and a fan of the Indians before the 1987 SI jinx, so seeing a player return from the mid 90's glory years is awesome.  The fact that it is Thome, my favorite player after Albert Belle, makes it even better.  So needless to say, I'm happy that he is back, but the cynic in me has some questions.  This trade couldn't have taken place any earlier, say prior to the trade deadline, since the Indians had a healthy Hafner at the time and no need for a left handed bat coming off the bench.  But now that Hafner is hurt, the Indians need Thome, except that I'm afraid it's too late to make a difference for this season.  The Tribe is 6.5 games back of a suddenly hot Tigers team and after what the Mariners did to the Indians this week, things aren't looking good.  But I am not giving up just yet and perhaps Thome provides some spark to the team.  I know it will to the fans.  As happy as the fans are, including me, I cant help but feel bad for Thome.  He could hardly refuse the trade to Cleveland as I'm sure he enjoyed his time there and technically the Indians are in contention.  But he really would have preferred to go to Philadelphia and reunite with Charlie Manuel.  This would have given Thome his best chance at a World Series ring this season.  But Thome did what perhaps only he would do, accept the trade to the Indians and not look like a spoiled player trying to get his way.  That isn't how he operates.  Though it is doubtful anyone would have given him grief if he had.  He certainly wouldn't have deserved it, but then again, we are talking about a fanbase in Cleveland that at times acts a bit irrational.  Speaking for myself, I would have become a Phillies fan for the remainder of this season cheering for Thome to get his ring.  All this brings me to the main thought, and what happens after the season?  Will Thome retire?  To my knowledge, he hasn't said publicly one way or the other.  If he doesn't, this little trip down memory lane in Cleveland won't have the happy ending everyone wants.  It is doubtful the Indians would bring him back for a full season with Hafner under contract.  So that would leave Thome looking for another A.L. team to sign with, putting him in the position of leaving Cleveland once again.  Will the fans be clamoring again next year for him to return if he is out of the race and the Indians are in it again?  Doubtful, it just wouldn't have the same meaning a second time.  So enjoy this last month of the season Tribe fans, cause most likely you'll be watching Thome hit bombs in Cleveland...but next year he'll be doing it in another teams uniform...again. 

Picks not going so well as we're under .500.  Today we are taking the smallest of 'dogs, over 10.5 in the Yankees-Orioles game.  The Yankee offense is awesome and Burnett is pitching for the Bronx Bombers.  That is a recipe for alot of runs.  Remember to check me out daily on twitter, @vegasobie.  Good luck, but never bet what you cant afford to lose. 

No Chance

I'd love to hear from someone who has attended a NFL game in the last couple of years.  Did you have a pleasant experience??  This thought comes after the numerous reported incidents at the Raiders-49ers game.  In case you haven't heard, it was not a pretty scene.  On top of the many fights and a guy getting beaten unconscious in the bathroom, there was also a shooting.  Based on this, along with the other stories I've heard from nearly every city on the NFL map, there is no way I would ever take my family to a pro football game.  I am not sure how much safer college games are, but the obnoxious behavior from fans of NFL teams is ridiculous.  For me, it starts with the fact grown men are wearing jerseys of other grown men.  Where does this obsession come from?  All I hear when out in public or listening to talk radio is how spoiled these players are and how they are overpaid.  But when Sunday rolls around, grown men are painting their faces and wearing another mans shirt.  I realize there are probably many factors that contribute to the behavior at games, with alcohol being the biggest, but there is never any excuse to be rude and pick fights with people over a sports team.  So count me out for NFL games, but I'd still love to hear some other firsthand experiences.

We are now a game under .500, 22-23 overall, but we had a good +160 win on Saturday with the Astros.  Tonight there wasn't much I liked in the underdog world, but we're riding the Cubs against the Braves.  Feel free to follow me with my daily picks on twitter, @vegasobie.  Good luck, but remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose. 

Here We Go Again

Now it's time for the University of Miami to visit the chopping block.  It looks as if "the U" is gonna face some serious sanctions, if not the death penalty, for its latest transgressions.  If you are not aware of all the details, I highly suggest reading the article done by Charles Robinson with Yahoo! Sports.  It is some amazing work in a day when sports journalism tends to be a joke, thanks to EsPN.  Here is a link to the article, http://sports.yahoo.com/investigations/news?slug=cr-renegade_miami_booster_details_illicit_benefits_081611 and be sure to check out the detail provided for each individual implicated.  Again, great work! 

So now for the larger question, what can be done about all the problems in college football.  Recently there has been a rash of incidents at schools across the country, including Oregon, USC, THEE Ohio State University, Auburn, Alabama and now most notably at Miami(FL).  Reporters and talk shows are abuzz of what can be done to fix the ills and who is to blame.   The athletes tend to get a pass, after all, they are just kids looking for some fun and a little extra in their pocket.  Hard to argue this, especially when most of those kids are smart enough to see the administrators getting rich off their back.  Still, if you are in an industry with rules, you should follow those rules, so some blame has to go to the players.  Then there are the administrators at the schools, getting paid big dollars to run these big programs.  On top of the taxpayer money they get in the form of salaries and bonuses(at state institutions only) they also get trips and perks courtesy of networks and bowl games.  Read "Death to the BCS" by Dan Wetzel for more of the details on this element, it's mind blowing.  The administrators, and this includes conference commissioners as well, make deals with the networks for millions and millions of dollars that the schools get, but the players see zero.  On top of that, most schools do not even make money with their athletic programs, so then require more tax dollars from the state or higher student fees to pay for everything they need to keep up with the top schools.  It is a system that has gotten way out of control in terms of competition off the field.  Schools compete to have the biggest training facility, largest scoreboard, newest weight room...where does it stop?  All in an effort to impress recruits and entice them to their institution.  So are the networks to blame?  They are the ones spending the millions of dollars to televise the games.  But these are for profit businesses, so I doubt they are losing money on these deals.  Which leads us to the true source of the problem, me.  And you.  We, as fans, are the ones that tune in every Saturday for non stop college football.  We spend big bucks on jerseys and memorabilia to decorate our houses and fly flags outside our front door.  We put stickers on our cars announcing our allegiance.  Hell, we even watch Sun Belt and MAC football games on Tuesday and Wednesday nights.  So the ultimate blame lies at our feet.  It's our obsession that allows for the millions of dollars to even be available.  How on earth can we expect people to act honestly and like human beings when there is that much money on the line.  Yet we are the ones up in arms over the behavior.  We are the ones pushing for changes, debating if players should get paid or not and criticizing the NCAA for its lengthy rule book but in essence always reacting rather than being proactive.  Not only is the rule book huge, but everything is getting bigger.  The season gets longer in football, March Madness continues to grow in dollars and teams involved.   And we say you're killing the what is good about the game...but we still watch.  So ask yourself, do you really want change?  Are you really outraged at the behavior?  I've asked myself that lately, and I'm really not.  In fact, I'm done with the Miami situation and could care less what punishment they get.  I'm ready for the next school to "come on down".  It's like a train wreck, you just have to watch.  But if you are truly fed up, then stop watching.  Turn the television off and read a book...I dare you.  Bet you cant do it. 

So we are slumping with the picks.  Lost last night to fall to .500 at 21-21.  Not too upset since we're always picking dogs and still slightly ahead on dollars, but definitely want a better winning percentage.  If you want to follow along with my daily picks, I'm on twitter, handle is vegasobie.  Good luck, and remember, never bet what you cant afford to lose.